180-1911年晋陕蒙毗邻地区寒冻灾害时空特征
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摘要
晋陕蒙毗邻地区是半湿润区向半干旱区过渡地带,对气候变化十分敏感。通过对历史时期寒冻灾害资料进行整理、分析,利用最小二乘法、小波分析等方法,对寒冻灾害进行时空分布特征研究。结果表明:180-1911年的1731年间有144年发生寒冻灾害,范围涉及960县次;秋季寒冻灾害发生频次最多、范围最广,其次为夏季;明清时期寒冻灾害发生频次和县数最多,分别占65.3%和64.2%;历史时期寒冻灾害整体呈波动上升趋势,存在低频、增加、波动增加3个阶段,在时间尺度上表现出200年、110年,80年和20年的周期,其中200年为主周期。寒冻灾害空间分布差异明显,高频中心出现在以榆林为中心的区域,低频中心位于山西部分的兴县、河曲、柳林。寒冻灾害受气候变化和人类活动共同影响,气候的寒冷和转型更多的影响灾害发生广度,而人口密度、生产发展程度则影响寒冻灾害发生频度。
Jin-Shan-Inner Mongolia adjacent area, a climate transition zone, is sensitive to climate change. Based on the statistics and analysis of the historical documents about freezing disasters in Jin-Shan-Inner Mongolia adjacent area, spatial-temporal distribution of the frequency, county-times and intensity were analyzed in the light of the methods of least squares and wavelet analysis. The results show that there were 144 years with freezing disasters in 960 counties of Jin-Shan-Inner Mongolia adjacent area from 180 to 1911. Autumn and summer were frequently prone to disaster. The disasters occurred in Ming and Qing Dynasties accounted for 65.3%, with 64.2% of counties suffered. Freezing disasters in historic periods showed a rising trend, experiencing three stages, namely, low frequenting, increasing and rapidly fluctuating. Wavelet analysis shows that there existed freezing disaster cycles of 200, 110, 80, and 20 years in history with a principal cycle of 200 years. The spatial distribution of the historical freezing disasters varied distinctly,Yulin was the high-frequency disaster center, while Xingxian, Hequ, and Liulin were the low-frequency disaster centers. Climate change and population density, the degree of agricultural development jointly affected the occurrence of freezing disasters. The cold climate and transition have more impact on the extent of freezing disaster, population density and production development affect the frequency of disaster.
Jin-Shan-Inner Mongolia adjacent area, a climate transition zone, is sensitive to climate change. Based on the statistics and analysis of the historical documents about freezing disasters in Jin-Shan-Inner Mongolia adjacent area, spatial-temporal distribution of the frequency, county-times and intensity were analyzed in the light of the methods of least squares and wavelet analysis. The results show that there were 144 years with freezing disasters in 960 counties of Jin-Shan-Inner Mongolia adjacent area from 180 to 1911. Autumn and summer were frequently prone to disaster. The disasters occurred in Ming and Qing Dynasties accounted for 65.3%, with 64.2% of counties suffered. Freezing disasters in historic periods showed a rising trend, experiencing three stages, namely, low frequenting, increasing and rapidly fluctuating. Wavelet analysis shows that there existed freezing disaster cycles of 200, 110, 80, and 20 years in history with a principal cycle of 200 years. The spatial distribution of the historical freezing disasters varied distinctly,Yulin was the high-frequency disaster center, while Xingxian, Hequ, and Liulin were the low-frequency disaster centers. Climate change and population density, the degree of agricultural development jointly affected the occurrence of freezing disasters. The cold climate and transition have more impact on the extent of freezing disaster, population density and production development affect the frequency of disaster.
引文
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[2] 郭绍礼.晋陕蒙接壤地区环境整治与农业发展研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1995:1-129.GUO S L.Study on environmental improvement and agricultural development in the border area of Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia[M].Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,1995:1-129.
[3] 李旭东.明代晋陕蒙接壤区土地利用与生态环境变迁的互动关系研究[D].苏州:苏州大学,2013.Li X D.The research about the interaction between land use and ecological change in the contiguous area of Shanxi Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia in Ming Dynasty[D].Suzhou:Soochow University,2013.
[4] 王应刚,张秋华,张峰.晋陕蒙交界地区生态退化与恢复的研究现状和展望[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(06):703-706.WANG Y G,ZHANG Q H,ZHANG F.Current research status and prospects of ecological degeneration and restoration at the juncture of Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2006,25(6):703-706.
[5] 常茂德.晋陕蒙接壤地区的水土流失灾害及其防治[J].灾害学,1992(1):51-54.CHANG M D.Soil erosion and its prevention methods in the Jin-Shaan-Mong Joint Area [J].Journal of Catastrophology,1992(1):51-54.
[6] 曹永旺,延军平,李敏敏,等.晋陕峡谷区气候变化与旱涝灾害响应研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(4):113-118.CAO Y W,YAN J P,LI M M,et al.Responses of drought-flood disasters to climatic change in Shanxi-Shaanxi gorge in recent 52a [J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(04):113-118.
[7] 张宪功,徐雪强,古帅,等.1644—1949年陕北地区旱灾研究[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):176-180.ZHANG X G,XU X Q,GU S,et al.Research on the characteristics of drought in Northern Shaanxi from 1644 to 1949[J].Areal Research and Development,2016,35(3):176-180.
[8] 孟万忠,赵景波,王尚义.山西清代霜雪灾害的特点与周期规律研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(4):40-47.MENG W Z,ZHAO J B,WANG S Y.Study on the characteristics of frost and snow disasters and their periodic regularity in Shanxi in Qing Dynasty[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(4):40-47.
[9] 徐兆红,殷淑燕.历史时期以来山西省雪灾特征与气候变化[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2016,55(5):135-140.XU Z H,YIN S Y.Characteristics of snow disaster in Shanxi Province and its climate change in historical period [J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2016,55(5):135-140.
[10] 王佳,韩军青.山西明清时期旱灾统计及区域特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(3):166-170.WANG J,HAN J Q.The statistical analysis of drought disaster and regional characteristics in the dynasties of Ming and Qing in Shanxi[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(3):166-170.
[11] 宋海龙,万红莲,朱婵婵.过去1400年陕西地区霜冻灾害事件及其影响研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(4):170-176.SONG H L,WAN H L,ZHU C C.Research on frost disaster events and effects in Shaanxi region for the past1400 years [J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2018,32(4):170-176.
[12] 赵景波,陈颖,周旗.延安地区明代、清代干旱灾害与气候变化对比研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(05):82-89.ZHAO J B,CHEN Y,ZHOU Q.Comparative study of draught disasters and climate change between Ming and Qing Dynasty in Yan’an area [J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(5):82-89.
[13] 马晓华,赵景波,温震军.鄂尔多斯高原西南部清代霜雪灾害研究[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(3):498-504.MA X H,ZHAO J B,WEN Z J.Study of the frost and snow disasters in southwestern Ordos Plateau during Qing dynasty [J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2017,39(3):498-504.
[14] 罗小庆,赵景波,祁子云.鄂尔多斯高原清代霜雪灾害研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(1):84-89.LUO X Q,ZHAO J B,HAO Z Y.Study on frost and snow disasters in Ordos Plateau during Qing Dynasty [J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(1):84-89.
[15] 李慧芳,殷淑燕.明清时期晋陕蒙毗邻地区洪涝灾害研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(3):158-163.LI H F,YIN S Y.Flood disasters in Jin-Shan-Meng adjacent area during Ming and Qing dynasties [J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2016,30(3):158-163.
[16] 刘静,殷淑燕,李慧芳.晋陕蒙毗邻区域历史洪涝灾害时空特征研究[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(6):903-911.LIU J,YIN S Y,LI H F.Spatiotemporal distribution of historical flood disaster in Jin-Shaan-Meng adjacent area [J].Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Sciences Edition),2016,38(6):903-911.
[17] 温克刚,沈建国.中国气象灾害大典·内蒙古卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:1-384.
[18] 内蒙古历代自然灾害史料编辑部.内蒙古历代自然灾害史料(上册) [M].内蒙古:内蒙古历代自然灾害史料编辑部,1982:1-132.
[19] 内蒙古历代自然灾害史料编辑部.内蒙古历代自然灾害史料(下册)[M].内蒙古:内蒙古历代自然灾害史料编辑部,1982:1-116.
[20] 邢野.内蒙古自然灾害通志[M].内蒙古:内蒙古人民出版社,2001:1-466 .
[21] 内蒙古自治区人民政府参事室历代自然灾害编辑组.内蒙古历代自然灾害史料续辑[M].内蒙古:内蒙古自治区人民政府参事室,1988:1-480.
[22] 温克刚,刘庆桐.中国气象灾害大典·山西卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:1-919.
[23] 山西自然灾害编辑委员会.山西自然灾害[M].山西:山西科学教育出版社,1989:1-482.
[24] 张杰.山西自然灾害史年表[M].山西:山西省地方志编篡委员会办公室,1988:1-384.
[25] 温克刚,翟佑安.中国气象灾害大典·陕西卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:1-211.
[26] 陕西省气象局气象台.陕西省自然灾害史料[M].陕西西安:陕西气象局,1976:1-263.
[27] 陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实编委会,陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实[M].北京:气象出版社,2002:1-271.
[28] 袁林.西北灾荒史[M].兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1994.
[29] 施雅风.全球变暖影响下中国自然灾害的发展趋势[J].自然灾害学报,1996(2):106-121.SHI Y F.The development trend of natural disasters in China under the influence of global warming [J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996 (2):106-121.
[30] GE Q S,ZHENG J Y,HAO Z X,et al.Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years [J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2016,26(7):827-854.
[31] 葛全胜.中国历朝气候变化[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[32] 中国农业博物馆研究所编.晋陕蒙接壤区农业演变史研究文集[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1995.