KZ河径流变异性识别与周期特征诊断
|
摘要
认识水文特征变异规律,对区域的综合治理、水资源合理开发与利用具有重要意义。研究以新疆KZ河主要控制性水文站KLBL站53年(1958年～2010年)径流序列为基础,运用累积距平、有序聚类、Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet复小波函数分析等方法研究了KZ河径流的变化趋势及周期演变特征。结果表明:KZ河径流年内分配不均,年际变化不大,径流在1978年发生了变异;径流存在5～10 a,12～18 a和22～28 a 3类尺度周期变化规律,主周期为25、15、8 a,其中25 a的周期最为显著。
The understanding of the variation of hydrological characteristics is of great significance to the comprehensivemanagement of area and the sustainable development and utilization of water resources. Based on actual measured runoffsequences of KLBL Hydrological Station in KZ River Basin in past 53 years(1958-2010),the variation trend and periodicityanalysis of runoff in KZ River are identified with cumulative anomaly method( CA),sequential clustering method,Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet complex wavelet function. The results show that,( a) runoff distribution during the year isuneven,the inter-annual variability is not large and the runoff varies in 1978; and( b) the annual runoff in KZ River has threekinds of change laws with terms of 3-5 a,12-18 a and 22-28 a respectively,and the main cycles are 25 a,15 a and 8 arespectively,in which,the cycle of 25 a is the most significant.
The understanding of the variation of hydrological characteristics is of great significance to the comprehensivemanagement of area and the sustainable development and utilization of water resources. Based on actual measured runoffsequences of KLBL Hydrological Station in KZ River Basin in past 53 years(1958-2010),the variation trend and periodicityanalysis of runoff in KZ River are identified with cumulative anomaly method( CA),sequential clustering method,Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet complex wavelet function. The results show that,( a) runoff distribution during the year isuneven,the inter-annual variability is not large and the runoff varies in 1978; and( b) the annual runoff in KZ River has threekinds of change laws with terms of 3-5 a,12-18 a and 22-28 a respectively,and the main cycles are 25 a,15 a and 8 arespectively,in which,the cycle of 25 a is the most significant.
引文
[1]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[2]张国威,吴素芬,王志杰.西北气候环境转型信号在新疆河川径流变化中的反应[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):183-187.
[3]施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[4]李琳琳.克孜河流域径流预测及水量分配研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2015:10-13.
[5]张贤芳,舒强,李偲.叶尔羌河近48年来径流演变规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):93-97.
[6]李艳,张鹏飞.人类活动影响下的北江流域径流变化特征及其变异性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(2):61-65.
[7]吕琳莉,李朝霞.雅鲁藏布江中下游径流变异性识别[J].水力发电,2013,39(5):12-15.
[8]牟萍,杨胜发,童思陈.基于Morlet小波分析的嘉陵江流域年径流周期研究[J].重庆交通大学学报:自然科学版,2016,35(1):76-79,171.
[9]古丽孜巴.艾尼瓦尔,麦麦提吐尔逊.艾则孜,米热古丽.艾尼瓦尔,等.基于小波分析1956-2010年焉耆盆地清水河径流量季节变化规律[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):210-214.
[10]游海林,徐力刚,刘桂林,等.小波分析在鄱阳湖水位序列多时间尺度分析中的应用[J].水力发电,2015,41(2):12-15,44.
[2]张国威,吴素芬,王志杰.西北气候环境转型信号在新疆河川径流变化中的反应[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):183-187.
[3]施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[4]李琳琳.克孜河流域径流预测及水量分配研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2015:10-13.
[5]张贤芳,舒强,李偲.叶尔羌河近48年来径流演变规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):93-97.
[6]李艳,张鹏飞.人类活动影响下的北江流域径流变化特征及其变异性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(2):61-65.
[7]吕琳莉,李朝霞.雅鲁藏布江中下游径流变异性识别[J].水力发电,2013,39(5):12-15.
[8]牟萍,杨胜发,童思陈.基于Morlet小波分析的嘉陵江流域年径流周期研究[J].重庆交通大学学报:自然科学版,2016,35(1):76-79,171.
[9]古丽孜巴.艾尼瓦尔,麦麦提吐尔逊.艾则孜,米热古丽.艾尼瓦尔,等.基于小波分析1956-2010年焉耆盆地清水河径流量季节变化规律[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):210-214.
[10]游海林,徐力刚,刘桂林,等.小波分析在鄱阳湖水位序列多时间尺度分析中的应用[J].水力发电,2015,41(2):12-15,44.