基于功煤系数的锅炉入炉煤量实时预测模型
|
摘要
锅炉入炉煤的投入量均按照电厂设计煤种进行计算,而电厂燃煤煤种较杂、煤热值波动较大,使得控制锅炉入炉煤量的准确性成为难题。对此,本文采用功煤系数法,依据组合预测模型与方差倒数理论建立了入炉煤量的预测模型,求取待预测时刻前1h功煤系数对当前时刻(待预测时刻)功煤系数的最优权重,实现了对当前时刻功煤系数以及入炉煤煤量的预测,并利用该预测模型对某660MW机组锅炉入炉煤量进行预测。结果表明,用实时入炉煤量的预测值作为实际给煤量,其平均准确度可达到97%以上,表明本文提出的基于功煤系数的入炉煤量预测模型具有较好的应用价值。
The feed coal quantity of boiler is calculated according to the design coal.However,due to the complexity of feed coal type and the large fluctuations of coal calorific value in power plants,accurately controlling the amount of coal into the furnace has become a difficult problem.Thus,this paper designed the self-adaptive coal quality feedforward correction,and established a prediction model for feed coal quantity,by using the coefficient of power to coal as a starting point,on the basis of the combined prediction model and variance reciprocal method.The optimal weight coefficient of the power to coal coefficient in the last one hour to the current power to coal coefficient was calculated,so the coefficient of power to coal and the amount of feed coal into the furnace can be predicted.Moreover,taking No.4boiler of the 660 MW unit in Guohua Cangdong Power Plant as the example,the feed coal quantity was predicted using the above model.The results show that,using the real-time predicted value as the actual feed coal amount,the average accuracy can reach up to 97%,indicating the proposed prediction model has a good prospect.
The feed coal quantity of boiler is calculated according to the design coal.However,due to the complexity of feed coal type and the large fluctuations of coal calorific value in power plants,accurately controlling the amount of coal into the furnace has become a difficult problem.Thus,this paper designed the self-adaptive coal quality feedforward correction,and established a prediction model for feed coal quantity,by using the coefficient of power to coal as a starting point,on the basis of the combined prediction model and variance reciprocal method.The optimal weight coefficient of the power to coal coefficient in the last one hour to the current power to coal coefficient was calculated,so the coefficient of power to coal and the amount of feed coal into the furnace can be predicted.Moreover,taking No.4boiler of the 660 MW unit in Guohua Cangdong Power Plant as the example,the feed coal quantity was predicted using the above model.The results show that,using the real-time predicted value as the actual feed coal amount,the average accuracy can reach up to 97%,indicating the proposed prediction model has a good prospect.
引文
[1]杨景祺,戈黎红,凌荣生.超临界参数机组控制系统的特点及其控制策略[J].动力工程,2005,25(2):221-225.YANG Jingqi,GE Lihong,LING Rongsheng.Features and strategies for control systems of supercritical pressure sets[J].Journal of Power Engineering,2005,25(2):221-225.
[2]接建鹏,辛力坚,武文华,等.利用煤质热值校正对协调控制系统优化的研究[J].内蒙古石油化工,2012(24):30-32.JIE Jianpeng,XIN Lijian,WU Wenhua,et al.Using coal calorific value correction on the research of the coordinated control system optimization[J].Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry,2012(24):30-32.
[3]郭瑞君,秦成果,张澎涛,等.基于热值校正的适应煤质变化协调控制系统研究[J].内蒙古电力技术,2010,28(4):5-8.GUO Ruijun,QIN Chengguo,ZHANG Pengtao,et al.Research of coordinated control system adaptation to coal quality variation based on caloricity calibration[J].Inner Mongolia Electric Power,2010,28(4):5-8.
[4]胡雄辉,刘武林,李劲柏,等.自适应煤质变化协调控制系统的研究[C]∥电站热工控制研讨会暨自动化信息化技术交流年会论文集.2008:66-71.HU Xionghui,LIU Wulin,LI Jinbai,et al.Research on adaptive coal quality changes of coordinated control system[C]∥Symposium and Automation Information Technology Exchange Annual Meeting of Power Station Thermal Control Symposium.2008:66-71(in Chinese).
[5]朱林忠,周昊,岑可法.引入等效相对热值的锅炉燃料控制系统[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,12:157-161.ZHU Linzhong,ZHOU Hao,CEN Kefa.Introducing an equivalent net calorific value(NCV)into the fuel control system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2002,12:157-161(in Chinese).
[6]SUN K L,ZHU X J,ZHOU H P,et al.Research on new nonlinear method applied on coal calorific value prediction[C].Advances in Mechatronics and Control Engineering,2013:904-908.
[7]李必成,盛赛斌.一种基于数据挖掘的入炉燃料发热量在线智能软诊断方法研究[J].热能动力工程,2007,22(1):25-28.LI Bicheng,SHENG Saibin.A study of the method for an on-line intelligent soft diagnosis of in-furnace fuel low heating values based on date-mining[J].Journal of Engineering for Thermal Energy and Power,2007,22(1):25-28.
[8]江文豪,韦红旗,屈天章,等.基于遗传算法优化参数的支持向量机燃煤发热量预测[J].热力发电,2011,40(3):14-19.JIANG Wenhao,WEI Hongqi,QU Tianzhang,et al.Prediction of the calorific value for coal based on the SVM with parameters optimized by genetic algorithm[J].Thermal Power Generation,2011,40(3):14-19.
[9]刘林,王朋,翟永杰,等.基于算法的煤质发热量预测[J].热力发电,2015,44(2):47-51.LIU Lin,WANG Peng,ZHAI Yongjie,et al.Calorific value prediction for coals based on a certain algorithm[J].Thermal Power Generation,2015,44(2):47-51.
[10]倪敏,魏向国,张明法.超临界空冷机组协调控制中新型热值校正方法的研究与应用[J].热力发电,2014,43(1):46-51.NI Min,WEI Xiangguo,ZHANG Mingfa.New calorific value calibration method for coordinated control of supercritical air-cooling units:study and application[J].Thermal Power Generation,2014,43(1):46-51(in Chinese).
[11]罗志浩,陈小强,陈波.超(超超)临界机组主重要参数控制策略优化[J].浙江电力,2011(6):32-35.LUO Zhihao,CHEN Xiaoqiang,CHEN Bo.Optimization of control strategy of main parameters for supercritical(ultra supercritical)units[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2011(6):32-35.
[12]蒋欣军,王煜伟,周晓韡.新型串级热值校正技术在直流锅炉配煤掺烧中的应用[J].锅炉技术,2013,44(6):65-69.JIANG Xinjun,WANG Yuwei,ZHOU Xiaowei.Application of new type BTU control technology for blended coal combustion in once-through boiler[J].Boiler Technology,2013,44(6):65-69.
[13]刘友宽,卢勇,苏适,等.煤质自适应的火电机组AGC控制仿真与应用[J].云南电力技术,2010(2):19-22.LIU Youkuan,LU Yong,SU Shi,et al.Simulation and application of coal adaptive control technology on thermal power generating unit AGC[J].Yunnan Electric Power,2010(2):19-22(in Chinese).
[14]王磊.煤质自适应的煤粉炉机组AGC控制策略研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2009.WANG Lei.The research of coal quality adaptive control strategy for pulverized coal unit AGC[D].Baoding:North China Electric Power University,2009(in Chinese).
[15]黄卫剑,张曦,朱亚清,等.火电机组燃料品质自适应性优化控制策略研究[J].中国电力,2012(6):43-46.HUANG Weijian,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Yaqing,et al.Self-adaptive optimum control strategy of fuel quality in fossil-fired unit[J].Electric Power,2012(6):43-46(in Chinese).
[16]任浩仁,李蔚,盛德仁,等.火电机组变工况下运行指标应达值的分析[J].中国电机工程学报,1999(9):51-53.REN Haoren,LI Wei,SHENG Deren,et al.The value analysis of running indicator of thermal power unit under the variable condition[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,1999(9):51-53.
[17]张啸海.煤质变化对机组运行的影响及对策[J].科协论坛:下半月,2012(11):48-49.ZHANG Xiaohai.The influence of coal quality on the operation of the units and its countermeasures[J].Science&Technology Association Forum:Next Half,2012(11):48-49.
[18]张承伟,黄伟,王彤.短期电力负荷最优组合预测模型的研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2010,27(12):177-180.ZHANG Chengwei,HUANG Wei,WANG Tong.On optimal combined forecasting model for short term power load[J].Computer Applications and Software,2010,27(12):177-180.
[19]孙炯,梁锦强,刘凯.一种基于最小二乘法的广义加权组合预测模型[J].科技通报,2013,29(8):10-12.SUN Tong,LIANG Jinqiang,LIU Kai.A combined forecasting model based on optical weighted method and east-squares methou[J].Bulletin of Science and Technology,2013,29(8):10-12.
[2]接建鹏,辛力坚,武文华,等.利用煤质热值校正对协调控制系统优化的研究[J].内蒙古石油化工,2012(24):30-32.JIE Jianpeng,XIN Lijian,WU Wenhua,et al.Using coal calorific value correction on the research of the coordinated control system optimization[J].Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry,2012(24):30-32.
[3]郭瑞君,秦成果,张澎涛,等.基于热值校正的适应煤质变化协调控制系统研究[J].内蒙古电力技术,2010,28(4):5-8.GUO Ruijun,QIN Chengguo,ZHANG Pengtao,et al.Research of coordinated control system adaptation to coal quality variation based on caloricity calibration[J].Inner Mongolia Electric Power,2010,28(4):5-8.
[4]胡雄辉,刘武林,李劲柏,等.自适应煤质变化协调控制系统的研究[C]∥电站热工控制研讨会暨自动化信息化技术交流年会论文集.2008:66-71.HU Xionghui,LIU Wulin,LI Jinbai,et al.Research on adaptive coal quality changes of coordinated control system[C]∥Symposium and Automation Information Technology Exchange Annual Meeting of Power Station Thermal Control Symposium.2008:66-71(in Chinese).
[5]朱林忠,周昊,岑可法.引入等效相对热值的锅炉燃料控制系统[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,12:157-161.ZHU Linzhong,ZHOU Hao,CEN Kefa.Introducing an equivalent net calorific value(NCV)into the fuel control system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2002,12:157-161(in Chinese).
[6]SUN K L,ZHU X J,ZHOU H P,et al.Research on new nonlinear method applied on coal calorific value prediction[C].Advances in Mechatronics and Control Engineering,2013:904-908.
[7]李必成,盛赛斌.一种基于数据挖掘的入炉燃料发热量在线智能软诊断方法研究[J].热能动力工程,2007,22(1):25-28.LI Bicheng,SHENG Saibin.A study of the method for an on-line intelligent soft diagnosis of in-furnace fuel low heating values based on date-mining[J].Journal of Engineering for Thermal Energy and Power,2007,22(1):25-28.
[8]江文豪,韦红旗,屈天章,等.基于遗传算法优化参数的支持向量机燃煤发热量预测[J].热力发电,2011,40(3):14-19.JIANG Wenhao,WEI Hongqi,QU Tianzhang,et al.Prediction of the calorific value for coal based on the SVM with parameters optimized by genetic algorithm[J].Thermal Power Generation,2011,40(3):14-19.
[9]刘林,王朋,翟永杰,等.基于算法的煤质发热量预测[J].热力发电,2015,44(2):47-51.LIU Lin,WANG Peng,ZHAI Yongjie,et al.Calorific value prediction for coals based on a certain algorithm[J].Thermal Power Generation,2015,44(2):47-51.
[10]倪敏,魏向国,张明法.超临界空冷机组协调控制中新型热值校正方法的研究与应用[J].热力发电,2014,43(1):46-51.NI Min,WEI Xiangguo,ZHANG Mingfa.New calorific value calibration method for coordinated control of supercritical air-cooling units:study and application[J].Thermal Power Generation,2014,43(1):46-51(in Chinese).
[11]罗志浩,陈小强,陈波.超(超超)临界机组主重要参数控制策略优化[J].浙江电力,2011(6):32-35.LUO Zhihao,CHEN Xiaoqiang,CHEN Bo.Optimization of control strategy of main parameters for supercritical(ultra supercritical)units[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2011(6):32-35.
[12]蒋欣军,王煜伟,周晓韡.新型串级热值校正技术在直流锅炉配煤掺烧中的应用[J].锅炉技术,2013,44(6):65-69.JIANG Xinjun,WANG Yuwei,ZHOU Xiaowei.Application of new type BTU control technology for blended coal combustion in once-through boiler[J].Boiler Technology,2013,44(6):65-69.
[13]刘友宽,卢勇,苏适,等.煤质自适应的火电机组AGC控制仿真与应用[J].云南电力技术,2010(2):19-22.LIU Youkuan,LU Yong,SU Shi,et al.Simulation and application of coal adaptive control technology on thermal power generating unit AGC[J].Yunnan Electric Power,2010(2):19-22(in Chinese).
[14]王磊.煤质自适应的煤粉炉机组AGC控制策略研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2009.WANG Lei.The research of coal quality adaptive control strategy for pulverized coal unit AGC[D].Baoding:North China Electric Power University,2009(in Chinese).
[15]黄卫剑,张曦,朱亚清,等.火电机组燃料品质自适应性优化控制策略研究[J].中国电力,2012(6):43-46.HUANG Weijian,ZHANG Xi,ZHU Yaqing,et al.Self-adaptive optimum control strategy of fuel quality in fossil-fired unit[J].Electric Power,2012(6):43-46(in Chinese).
[16]任浩仁,李蔚,盛德仁,等.火电机组变工况下运行指标应达值的分析[J].中国电机工程学报,1999(9):51-53.REN Haoren,LI Wei,SHENG Deren,et al.The value analysis of running indicator of thermal power unit under the variable condition[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,1999(9):51-53.
[17]张啸海.煤质变化对机组运行的影响及对策[J].科协论坛:下半月,2012(11):48-49.ZHANG Xiaohai.The influence of coal quality on the operation of the units and its countermeasures[J].Science&Technology Association Forum:Next Half,2012(11):48-49.
[18]张承伟,黄伟,王彤.短期电力负荷最优组合预测模型的研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2010,27(12):177-180.ZHANG Chengwei,HUANG Wei,WANG Tong.On optimal combined forecasting model for short term power load[J].Computer Applications and Software,2010,27(12):177-180.
[19]孙炯,梁锦强,刘凯.一种基于最小二乘法的广义加权组合预测模型[J].科技通报,2013,29(8):10-12.SUN Tong,LIANG Jinqiang,LIU Kai.A combined forecasting model based on optical weighted method and east-squares methou[J].Bulletin of Science and Technology,2013,29(8):10-12.