锅炉入炉煤量预测模型研究
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摘要
设计了煤质自适应前馈校正,以功煤系数为出发点,借助组合预测模型的思想建立锅炉入炉煤量的预测模型,采用方差倒数法求取前1h功煤系数对当前时刻功煤系数的最优权重系数,实现对入炉煤量和功煤系数的预测,并利用该模型对某660 MW机组4号锅炉的入炉煤量进行预测.结果表明:将实时入炉煤量的预测值作为实际入炉煤量,其预测平均准确度能达到97%左右,提高了入炉煤量的预测准确率.
An adaptive feed-forward correction to coal quality was designed,based on which a prediction model was established for the coal feed rate of a boiler considering the power-coal coefficient via the concept of combination model.The optimal weighting factor of last 1hto current power-coal coefficient was solved by reciprocal method,so as to predict the coal feed rate and power-coal coefficient.The model was applied to the prediction of coal feed rate in No.4boiler of a 660 MW unit.Results show that the average prediction accuracy on coal feed rate can be improved up to 97%if the predicted value is regarded as the actual coal feed rate.
An adaptive feed-forward correction to coal quality was designed,based on which a prediction model was established for the coal feed rate of a boiler considering the power-coal coefficient via the concept of combination model.The optimal weighting factor of last 1hto current power-coal coefficient was solved by reciprocal method,so as to predict the coal feed rate and power-coal coefficient.The model was applied to the prediction of coal feed rate in No.4boiler of a 660 MW unit.Results show that the average prediction accuracy on coal feed rate can be improved up to 97%if the predicted value is regarded as the actual coal feed rate.
引文
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[2]接建鹏,辛力坚,武文华,等.利用煤质热值校正对协调控制系统优化的研究[J].内蒙古石油化工,2012(24):30-32.JIE Jianpeng,XIN Lijian,WU Wenhua,et al.Study on the optimization of the coordinated control system using coal calorific value correction[J].Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry,2012(24):30-32.
[3]郭瑞君,秦成果,张澎涛,等.基于热值校正的适应煤质变化协调控制系统研究[J].内蒙古电力技术,2010,28(4):5-8.GUO Ruijun,QIN Chengguo,ZHANG Pengtao,et al.Research of coordinated control system adaptation to coal quality variation based on caloricity calibration[J].Inner Mongolia Electric Power,2010,28(4):5-8.
[4]胡雄辉,刘武林,李劲柏,等.自适应煤质变化协调控制系统的研究[C]//电站热工控制研讨会暨自动化信息化技术交流年会论文集.长沙:中国动力工程学会,2008:66-71.
[5]李必成,盛赛斌.一种基于数据挖掘的入炉燃料发热量在线智能软诊断方法研究[J].热能动力工程,2007,22(1):25-28.LI Bicheng,SHENG Saibin.A study of the method for an on-line intelligent soft diagnosis of in-furnace fuel low heating values based on data-mining[J].Journal of Engineering for Thermal Energy and Power,2007,22(1):25-28.
[6]刘吉臻,刘焕章,常太华,等.部分烟气信息下的锅炉煤质分析模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(14):1-5.LIU Jizhen,LIU Huanzhang,CHANG Taihua,et al.Analysis model of coal grade into boilers based on incomplete flue gas information[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(14):1-5.
[7]罗志浩,陈小强,陈波.超(超超)临界机组主重要参数控制策略优化[J].浙江电力,2011(6):32-35.LUO Zhihao,CHEN Xiaoqiang,CHEN Bo.Optimization of control strategy of main parameters for supercritical(ultra supercritical)units[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2011(6):32-35.
[8]蒋欣军,王煜伟,周晓韡.新型串级热值校正技术在直流锅炉配煤掺烧中的应用[J].锅炉技术,2013,44(6):65-69.JIANG Xinjun,WANG Yuwei,ZHOU Xiaowei.Application of new type BTU control technology for blended coal combustion in once-through boiler[J].Boiler Technology,2013,44(6):65-69.
[9]刘友宽,潘巾杰,田沛,等.煤质自适应校正方案建模仿真[J].热力发电,2014,43(1):99-105.LIU Youkuan,PAN Jinjie,TIAN Pei,et al.Simulation of coal quality correction program[J].Thermal Power Generation,2014,43(1):99-105.
[10]张啸海.煤质变化对机组运行的影响及对策[J].科协论坛:下半月,2012(11):48-49.ZHANG Xiaohai.The influence of coal quality on the operation of the unit and its countermeasures[J].Science&Technology Association Forum,2012(11):48-49.
[11]张承伟,黄伟,王彤.短期电力负荷最优组合预测模型的研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2010,27(12):177-180,192.ZHANG Chengwei,HUANG Wei,WANG Tong.On optimal combined forecasting model for shortterm power load[J].Computer Applications and Software,2010,27(12):177-180,192.
[12]孙炯,梁锦强,刘凯.一种基于最小二乘法的广义加权组合预测模型[J].科技通报,2013,29(8):10-12.SUN Tong,LIANG Jinqiang,LIU Kai.A combined forecasting model based on optimal weighted method and east-squares method[J].Bulletin of Science and Technology,2013,29(8):10-12.