电力变压器全寿命周期经济-物理综合寿命评估方法
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摘要
针对电力变压器寿命定量评估问题,提出了电力变压器全寿命周期经济-物理综合寿命评估方法。首先建立电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型,分析了全寿命周期成本各组成部分与运行时间的关系,以全寿命周期成本最低原则得到电力变压器经济寿命。建立了电力变压器物理寿命评价指标体系,从电力变压器主绝缘老化程度、绝缘运行状态和部件缺陷风险三个方面进行综合评价,运用层次分析法确定了各评价指标的权重,得到电力变压器物理寿命。以电力变压器物理寿命作为基准,综合考虑经济寿命,建立全寿命周期经济-物理综合寿命模型。对某电力变压器进行实例分析,评估了该变压器的经济-物理综合寿命,验证了所提方法的合理性和实用性。
The method of power transformers full life cycle economic-physical comprehensive life evaluation is presented to solve the problem of quantitative life prediction. First, the life cycle cost model of power transformer is set up. The relationship between the components of the life cycle cost and the running time is analyzed. The economic life of power transformer is obtained by using the minimum full life cycle cost principle. The physical life evaluation system of power transformer is built from three aspects: the degree of main insulation aging, the state of insulation operation and the risk of component defects. The weight of each evaluation index is given by analytic hierarchy process, and then the physical life of power transformer is calculated. Considering the economic life, the economic-physical comprehensive life calculation method of power transformer is put forward based on the power transformer physical life. Finally, a power transformer is taken as an example to calculate the comprehensive economic-physical life, and the rationality and practicability of the method are verified.
The method of power transformers full life cycle economic-physical comprehensive life evaluation is presented to solve the problem of quantitative life prediction. First, the life cycle cost model of power transformer is set up. The relationship between the components of the life cycle cost and the running time is analyzed. The economic life of power transformer is obtained by using the minimum full life cycle cost principle. The physical life evaluation system of power transformer is built from three aspects: the degree of main insulation aging, the state of insulation operation and the risk of component defects. The weight of each evaluation index is given by analytic hierarchy process, and then the physical life of power transformer is calculated. Considering the economic life, the economic-physical comprehensive life calculation method of power transformer is put forward based on the power transformer physical life. Finally, a power transformer is taken as an example to calculate the comprehensive economic-physical life, and the rationality and practicability of the method are verified.
引文
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[13]杨杰明,董玉坤,曲朝阳,等.基于区间权重和改进云模型的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(23):102-109.YANG Jieming,DONG Yukun,QU Zhaoyang,et al.Condition assessment for transformer based on interval weight and improved cloud model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(23):102-109.
[14]马纪,刘希喆.基于序关系-熵权法的低压配网台区健康状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(6):87-93.MA Ji,LIU Xizhe.Evaluation of health status of low-voltage distribution network based on order relation-entropy weight method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(6):87-93.
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[16]张晶晶,许修乐,丁明,等.基于模糊层次分析法的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(3):75-81.ZHANG Jingjing,XU Xiule,DING Ming,et al.Acondition assessment method of power transformers based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(3):75-81.
[17]陈杏,宋依群,杨镜非.基于状态联动的在役设备最佳运行寿命评估模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(1):67-73.CHEN Xing,SONG Yiqun,YANG Jingfei.Optimal service life evaluation model for in-service equipment based on state linkage[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(1):67-73.
[18]李振柱,谢志成,熊卫红,等.考虑绝缘剩余寿命的变压器健康状态评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(8):137-142,169.LI Zhenzhu,XIE Zhicheng,XIONG Weihong,et al.Transformer health condition assessment considering insulation remaining life[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(8):137-142,169.
[19]国家电网公司.油浸式电力变压器(电抗器)状态评价导则:Q/GDW 10169-2016[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2017.State Grid Corporation of China.Guide for condition evaluation of oil-immersed power transformers(reactors):Q/GDW 10169-2016[S].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2017.
[20]PRADHAN M K,RAMU T.On the estimation of elapsed life of oil-immersed power transformers[J].IEEETransactions on Power Delivery,2005,20(3):1962-1969.
[21]张楠,袁海文,马钊,等.基于层次分析结构的配电变压器健康指数评价方法[J].供用电,2016,33(1):14-20.ZHANG Nan,YUAN Haiwen,MA Zhao,et al.A health index evaluation method for distribution transformers based on hierarchical structure[J].Distribution&Utilization,2016,33(1):14-20.
[2]于继来,王成福,张博,等.在役电力变压器经济寿命评估[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2010,22(3):86-90.YU Jilai,WANG Chengfu,ZHANG Bo,et al.Economic life evaluation of power transformer in service[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2010,22(3):86-90.
[3]程军照,陈江波,伍志荣,等.提高电力变压器使用寿命技术措施的分析[J].变压器,2013,50(11):29-34.CHENG Junzhao,CHEN Jiangbo,WU Zhirong,et al.Analysis of technical measures to extend power transformer life time[J].Transformer,2013,50(11):29-34.
[4]罗晓初,李乐,魏志连.等.全寿命周期成本理论在配电电力变压器改造投资决策中的应用[J].电网技术,2011,35(2):207-211.LUO Xiaochu,LI Le,WEI Zhilian,et al.Applications of life cycle cost theory in decision-making of investment for distribution transformers renovation[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(2):207-211.
[5]宋宛净,姚建刚,汪觉恒,等.全寿命周期成本理论在主电力变压器选择中的应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2012,24(6):111-116.SONG Wanjing,YAO Jiangang,WANG Jueheng,et al.Application of life cycle cost theory in main transformer selection[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2012,24(6):111-116.
[6]吴文宣,陈祥伟,李天友,等.基于计量经济学综合分析法的电力设备全寿命周期成本管理[J].电力科学与技术学报,2010,25(4):53-57.WU Wenxuan,CHEN Xiangwei,LI Tianyou,et al.Power equipment life cycle cost management based on econometric analysis[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2010,25(4):53-57.
[7]江修波,吴文宣,陈祥伟.区间分析法在电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型中的应用[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(9):50-53.JIANG Xiubo,WU Wenxuan,CHEN Xiangwei.Transformer life cycle cost model based on interval analysis[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(9):50-53.
[8]崔新奇,尹来宾,范春菊,等.变电站改造中电力变压器全生命周期费用(LCC)模型的研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(7):69-73.CUI Xinqi,YIN Laibin,FAN Chunju,et al.Study of LCC for power transformer in modification of transformer substation[J].Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(7):69-73.
[9]王慧芳,赵婉芳,杜振东,等.基于寿命数据的电力变压器经济寿命预测[J].电网技术,2015,39(3):810-816.WANG Huifang,ZHAO Wanfang,DU Zhendong,et al.Economic life prediction of power transformers based on the lifetime data[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(3):810-816.
[10]刘有为,马麟,吴立远,等.电力变压器经济寿命模型及应用实例[J].电网技术,2012,36(10):235-240.LIU Youwei,MA Lin,WU Liyuan,et al.Economic life model of power transformer and its application[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(10):235-240.
[11]栗然,韩彪,卢云,等.基于随机模糊理论的变压器经济寿命评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(1):9-16.LI Ran,HAN Biao,LU Yun,et al.Transformer’s economic life assessment based on random and fuzzy theory[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(1):9-16.
[12]张镱议,廖瑞金,杨丽君,等.基于云理论的电力变压器绝缘状态评估方法[J].电工技术学报,2012,27(5):13-20.ZHANG Yiyi,LIAO Ruijin,YANG Lijun,et al.An assessment method for insulation condition of power transformer based upon cloud model[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2012,27(5):13-20.
[13]杨杰明,董玉坤,曲朝阳,等.基于区间权重和改进云模型的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(23):102-109.YANG Jieming,DONG Yukun,QU Zhaoyang,et al.Condition assessment for transformer based on interval weight and improved cloud model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(23):102-109.
[14]马纪,刘希喆.基于序关系-熵权法的低压配网台区健康状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(6):87-93.MA Ji,LIU Xizhe.Evaluation of health status of low-voltage distribution network based on order relation-entropy weight method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(6):87-93.
[15]王有元,陈璧君.基于层次分析结构的电力变压器健康状态与综合寿命评估模型[J].电网技术,2014,38(10):2845-2850.WANG Youyuan,CHEN Bijun.An integrated life estimation model of power transformer based on hierarchical architecture and health index[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(10):2845-2850.
[16]张晶晶,许修乐,丁明,等.基于模糊层次分析法的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(3):75-81.ZHANG Jingjing,XU Xiule,DING Ming,et al.Acondition assessment method of power transformers based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(3):75-81.
[17]陈杏,宋依群,杨镜非.基于状态联动的在役设备最佳运行寿命评估模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(1):67-73.CHEN Xing,SONG Yiqun,YANG Jingfei.Optimal service life evaluation model for in-service equipment based on state linkage[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(1):67-73.
[18]李振柱,谢志成,熊卫红,等.考虑绝缘剩余寿命的变压器健康状态评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(8):137-142,169.LI Zhenzhu,XIE Zhicheng,XIONG Weihong,et al.Transformer health condition assessment considering insulation remaining life[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(8):137-142,169.
[19]国家电网公司.油浸式电力变压器(电抗器)状态评价导则:Q/GDW 10169-2016[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2017.State Grid Corporation of China.Guide for condition evaluation of oil-immersed power transformers(reactors):Q/GDW 10169-2016[S].Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2017.
[20]PRADHAN M K,RAMU T.On the estimation of elapsed life of oil-immersed power transformers[J].IEEETransactions on Power Delivery,2005,20(3):1962-1969.
[21]张楠,袁海文,马钊,等.基于层次分析结构的配电变压器健康指数评价方法[J].供用电,2016,33(1):14-20.ZHANG Nan,YUAN Haiwen,MA Zhao,et al.A health index evaluation method for distribution transformers based on hierarchical structure[J].Distribution&Utilization,2016,33(1):14-20.