论市场价值和团队结构——顶级欧洲足球联赛结果的预测因子分析
|
摘要
在瞬息万变的时代背景下,商业化和全球化进程颠覆了职业足球运动和球队的组成结构。研究在本土联赛中,与足球队的成功相关联的因素有:1)足球队表现为市场价值的货币价值; 2)队内不平等; 3)队内文化多样性; 4)队内成员流动。开展的实证分析囊括了2011/2012—2015/2016年的5个赛季,包括12场欧洲最重要的足球联赛。分析结果表明,足球队在本土联赛中的成功具有高度可预测性。足球队的市场价值是目前最重要的单一预测因子,而团队结构的不同特性,如队内不平等、文化多样性、成员流动,相对来说影响力较弱。然而,团队的市场价值并不是在所有联赛中都发挥相同的作用。联赛中球队资金实力越均衡,球队市场价值对其表现的影响就越小。
Under the changing background of the times,the process of commercialization and globalization has fundamentally changed the composition of professional football and football teams. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between the success of football teams and the following factors in local leagues: 1) monetary value of football team; 2) inequality within team; 3) cultural diversity within team; 4) team fluctuation.The empirical analysis carried out in this paper covers five seasons from 2011/2012 to 2015/2016,including12 most important football leagues in Europe. The results show that the team's success in the local league is highly predictable. At present,the market value of football team is the most important single predictor,while the different characteristics of team structure,such as inequality,cultural diversity and member mobility,are relatively weak in predicting. However,team market value does not play the same role in all leagues. The lower the degree of uneven financial strength in league matches,the smaller the impact of team market value on team performance.
Under the changing background of the times,the process of commercialization and globalization has fundamentally changed the composition of professional football and football teams. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between the success of football teams and the following factors in local leagues: 1) monetary value of football team; 2) inequality within team; 3) cultural diversity within team; 4) team fluctuation.The empirical analysis carried out in this paper covers five seasons from 2011/2012 to 2015/2016,including12 most important football leagues in Europe. The results show that the team's success in the local league is highly predictable. At present,the market value of football team is the most important single predictor,while the different characteristics of team structure,such as inequality,cultural diversity and member mobility,are relatively weak in predicting. However,team market value does not play the same role in all leagues. The lower the degree of uneven financial strength in league matches,the smaller the impact of team market value on team performance.
引文
[1] GIULIANOTTI R,ROBERTSON R. Mapping the global football field:a sociological model of transnational forces within the world game[J]. The British Journal of Sociology,2012,63(2):216-240.
[2] FRICK B,PRINZ J. Crisis? What crisis? Football in Germany[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2006,7(1):60-75.
[3] LAGO U,SIMMONS R,SZYMANSKI S. The financial crisis in European football:an introduction[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2006,7(1):3-12.
[4] DELOITTE(eds). Football money league[M].Manchester:Deloitte Sports Business Group,2011.
[5] NAURIGHT J,RAMFJORD J,HASSAN D,et al.Who owns England's game? American professional sporting influences and foreign ownership in the premier league[J]. Soccer&Society,2010,11(4):428-441.
[6] GIULIANOTTI R,ROBERTSON S. Olympic and world sport:making transnational society?[J]. The British Journal of Sociology,2012,63(2):199-215.
[7] BALE J,MAGUIRE JA. The global sporting arena:athletic talent migration in an interdependent world[M]. London:Frank Cass,1994.
[8] MAGEE J,SUGDEN J. The world at their feet:professional football and international labor migration[J]. Journal of Sport&Social Issues,2002,26(4):421-437.
[9] POLI R. Understanding globalization through football:the new international division of labour,migratory channels and transnational trade circuits[J]. International Review for the Sociology of Sport,2010,45(4):491-506.
[10] WILKINSON RG,PICKETT KE. Income inequality and social dysfunction[J]. Annual Review of Sociology,2009,35(1):493-511.
[11] VAN KNIPPENBERG D,SCHIPPERS MC. Work group diversity[J]. Annual Review of Psychology,2007,58:515-541.
[12] FRICK B. The football players'labor market:Empirical evidence from the major European leagues[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2007,54(3):422-446.
[13] KESENNE S. The peculiar international economics of professional football in Europe[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2007,54(3):388-399.
[14] BURDEKIN R,FRANKLIN M. Transfer spending in the English premier league:the haves and the have nots[J]. National Institute Economic Review,2015,232(1):R4-R17.
[15] LIU XF,LIU YL,LU XH,et al. The anatomy of the global football player transfer network:club functionalities versus network properties[J]. PLoS One,2016,11(6):1-14.
[16] CACHAY K,THIEL A,RIEDL L,et al. Global Player:Local Hero. Der Sportverein zwischen Spitzensport, Publikum und Vermarktung[R].Forschungsbericht Universitt Bielefeld,2005.
[17] LUCIFORA C,SIMMONS R. Superstar effects in sport:evidence from Italian soccer[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2003,4(1):35-55.
[18] TORGLER B,SCHMIDT SL. What shapes player performance in soccer? Empirical findings from a panel analysis[J]. Applied Economics,2007,39(18):2355-2369.
[19] VINCENT C,EASTMAN B. Determinants of pay in the NHL:a quantile regression approach[J].Journal of Sports Economics,2009,10(3):256-277.
[20] FRICK B. Performance,salaries,and contract length:empirical evidence from German soccer[J]. International Journal of Sport Finance,2011,6(2):87-118.
[21] LEE S,HARRIS J. Managing excellence in USA major league soccer:an analysis of the relationship between player performance and salary[J]. Managing Leisure,2012,17(2/3):106-123.
[22] SZYMANSKI S. A market test for discrimination in the English professional soccer leagues[J].Journal of Political Economy,2000,108(3):590-603.
[23] HALL S,SZYMANSKI S,ZIMBALIST AS. Testing causality between team performance and payroll:the cases of major league baseball and English soccer[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2002,3(2):149-168.
[24] PEDACE R. Earnings,performance,and nationality discrimination in a highly competitive labor market.An analysis of the English professional soccer league[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2008,9(2):115-140.
[25] KUPER S,SZYMANSKI S. Why England Lose[M]. London:Harper Collins,2009.
[26] STIROH KJ. Playing for keeps:pay and performance in the NBA[J]. Economic Inquiry,2007,45:145-161.
[27] GERHARDS J,MUTZ M,WAGNER GG. Die berechnung des siegers:der einfluss von marktwert,ungleichheit,diversitt und routine auf die leistung professioneller fuballteams[J]. Zeitschrift für Soziologie,2014,43(3):231-250.
[28] HERM S,CALLSEN-BRACKER HM,KREIS H.When the crowd evaluates soccer players'market values:accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community[J]. Sport Management Review,2014,17(4):484-492.
[29] FRANCK E,NESCH S. Talent and/or popularity:what does it take to be superstar?[J]. Economic Inquiry,2012,50(1):202-216.
[30] KIEFER S. The impact of the Euro 2012 on popularity and market value of football players[J]. International Journal of Sport Finance,2014,9:95-110.
[31] GARCIA-DEL-BARRIO P,PUJOL F. Pay and performance in the Spanish soccer league:who gets the expected monopsony rents?[J].Managerial and Decision Economics,2007,28:57-70.
[32] KUETHE TH,MOTAMED M. Returns to stardom:evidence from U. S. major league soccer[J].Journal of Sports Economics,2010,11(5):567-579.
[33] ANDERSON C,SALLY D. The numbers game:why everything you know about football is wrong[M]. London:Viking,2013.
[34] TAO YL,CHUANG HL,LIN ES. Compensation and performance in major league baseball:evidence from salary dispersion and team performance[J]. International Review of Economics&Finance,2016,43:151-159.
[35] DAVIS K,MOORE WE. Some principles of stratification[J]. American Sociological Review,1945,10:242-249.
[36] SOMMERS P. Work incentives and salary distributions in the National Hockey League[J]. Atlantic Economic Journal,1998,26:119.
[37] BLOOM M. The performance effects of pay dispersion on individuals and organizations[J].Academy of Management Journal,1999,42(1):25-40.
[38] DEPKEN CA. Wage disparity and team productivity:evidence from major league baseball[J].Economics Letters,2000,67(1):87-92.
[39] BREUNIG R,GARRETT-RUMBA B,JARDIN M,et al. Wage dispersion and team performance:atheoretical model and evidence from baseball[J]. Applied Economics,2014,46(3):271-281.
[40] BUCCIOL A,FOSS NJ,PIOVESAN M. Pay dispersion and performance in teams[J]. PLoS One,2014,9(11):1-16.
[41] PAPPS KL,BRYSON A,GOMEZ R. Heterogeneous worker ability and team-based production:evidence from major league baseball,1920-2009[J]. Labour Economics,2011,18(3):310-319.
[42] TREVOR CO,REILLY G,GERHART B. Reconsidering pay dispersion's effect on the performance of interdependent work:reconciling sorting and pay inequality[J]. Academy of Management Journal,2012(55):585-610.
[43] KAHANE L,LONGLEY N,SIMMONS R. The effects of co-worker heterogeneity on firm-level output:assessing the impacts of cultural and language diversity in the National Hockey League[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2013,95(1):302-314.
[44] HAAS H,NESCH S. Are multinational teams more successful?[J]. The International Journal of Human Resource Management, 2012,23(15):3105-3113.
[45] SAKUDA KH. National diversity and team performance in low interdependence tasks[J]. Cross Cultural Management:An International Journal,2012,19(2):125-141.
[46] BEZRUKOVA K,SPELL CS,CALDWELL D,et al. A multilevel perspective on faultlines:differentiating the effects between group-and organizational level faultlines[J]. Journal of Applied Psychology,2016,101(1):86-107.
[47] LAZEAR EP. Globalisation and the market for team-mates[J]. The Economic Journal,1999,109(454):15-40.
[48] KALTER F. Chancen fouls,abseitsfallen. Migranten im deutschen Ligenfuball[M]. Opladen:Westdeutscher Verlag,2003.
[49] TAJFEL H,TURNER JC. The social identity theory of intergroup behavior[J]. Psychology of Intergroup Relations,1986,13(3):7-24.
[50] MCLEOD PL,LOBEL SA,COX THJ. Ethnic diversity and creativity in small groups[J]. Small Group Research,1996,27(2):248-264.
[51] ANDRESEN M,ALTMANN T. Diversity und Erfolg im Profifuball[J]. Zeitschrift Führung+Organisation,2006,75:325-332.
[52] BRANDES L,FRANCK E,THEILER P. The effect from national diversity on team production:empirical evidence from the sports industry[J].Schmalenbach Business Review,2009,61(2):225-246.
[53] EDMONDSON A. Psychological safety and learning behavior in work teams[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly,1999,44(2):350-83.
[54] HUCKMAN RS,STAATS BR,UPTON DM. Team familiarity,role experience,and performance:evidence from Indian software services[J]. Management Science,2009,55(1):85-100.
[55] BORLAND J,MACDONALD R. Demand for sport[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2003,19(4):478-502.
[56] SZYMANSKI S. Income inequality,competitive balance and the attractiveness of team sports:some evidence and a natural experiment from English soccer[J]. The Economic Journal, 2001,111(469):69-84.
[57] GARCA J,RODRGUEZ P. The determinants of football match attendance revisited:empirical evidence from the Spanish football league[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2002,3(1):18-38.
[58] ROTTMANN H,SEITZ F. Wer und was bestimmen die Zuschauerzahlen in der Fuballbundesliga?[J].Schmollers Jahrbuch. Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften,2008,128:291-306.
[59] ALAVY K,GASKELL A,LEACH S,et al. On the edge of your seat:demand for football on television and the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis[J]. International Journal of Sport Finance,2010,5:75-95.
[2] FRICK B,PRINZ J. Crisis? What crisis? Football in Germany[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2006,7(1):60-75.
[3] LAGO U,SIMMONS R,SZYMANSKI S. The financial crisis in European football:an introduction[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2006,7(1):3-12.
[4] DELOITTE(eds). Football money league[M].Manchester:Deloitte Sports Business Group,2011.
[5] NAURIGHT J,RAMFJORD J,HASSAN D,et al.Who owns England's game? American professional sporting influences and foreign ownership in the premier league[J]. Soccer&Society,2010,11(4):428-441.
[6] GIULIANOTTI R,ROBERTSON S. Olympic and world sport:making transnational society?[J]. The British Journal of Sociology,2012,63(2):199-215.
[7] BALE J,MAGUIRE JA. The global sporting arena:athletic talent migration in an interdependent world[M]. London:Frank Cass,1994.
[8] MAGEE J,SUGDEN J. The world at their feet:professional football and international labor migration[J]. Journal of Sport&Social Issues,2002,26(4):421-437.
[9] POLI R. Understanding globalization through football:the new international division of labour,migratory channels and transnational trade circuits[J]. International Review for the Sociology of Sport,2010,45(4):491-506.
[10] WILKINSON RG,PICKETT KE. Income inequality and social dysfunction[J]. Annual Review of Sociology,2009,35(1):493-511.
[11] VAN KNIPPENBERG D,SCHIPPERS MC. Work group diversity[J]. Annual Review of Psychology,2007,58:515-541.
[12] FRICK B. The football players'labor market:Empirical evidence from the major European leagues[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2007,54(3):422-446.
[13] KESENNE S. The peculiar international economics of professional football in Europe[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2007,54(3):388-399.
[14] BURDEKIN R,FRANKLIN M. Transfer spending in the English premier league:the haves and the have nots[J]. National Institute Economic Review,2015,232(1):R4-R17.
[15] LIU XF,LIU YL,LU XH,et al. The anatomy of the global football player transfer network:club functionalities versus network properties[J]. PLoS One,2016,11(6):1-14.
[16] CACHAY K,THIEL A,RIEDL L,et al. Global Player:Local Hero. Der Sportverein zwischen Spitzensport, Publikum und Vermarktung[R].Forschungsbericht Universitt Bielefeld,2005.
[17] LUCIFORA C,SIMMONS R. Superstar effects in sport:evidence from Italian soccer[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2003,4(1):35-55.
[18] TORGLER B,SCHMIDT SL. What shapes player performance in soccer? Empirical findings from a panel analysis[J]. Applied Economics,2007,39(18):2355-2369.
[19] VINCENT C,EASTMAN B. Determinants of pay in the NHL:a quantile regression approach[J].Journal of Sports Economics,2009,10(3):256-277.
[20] FRICK B. Performance,salaries,and contract length:empirical evidence from German soccer[J]. International Journal of Sport Finance,2011,6(2):87-118.
[21] LEE S,HARRIS J. Managing excellence in USA major league soccer:an analysis of the relationship between player performance and salary[J]. Managing Leisure,2012,17(2/3):106-123.
[22] SZYMANSKI S. A market test for discrimination in the English professional soccer leagues[J].Journal of Political Economy,2000,108(3):590-603.
[23] HALL S,SZYMANSKI S,ZIMBALIST AS. Testing causality between team performance and payroll:the cases of major league baseball and English soccer[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2002,3(2):149-168.
[24] PEDACE R. Earnings,performance,and nationality discrimination in a highly competitive labor market.An analysis of the English professional soccer league[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2008,9(2):115-140.
[25] KUPER S,SZYMANSKI S. Why England Lose[M]. London:Harper Collins,2009.
[26] STIROH KJ. Playing for keeps:pay and performance in the NBA[J]. Economic Inquiry,2007,45:145-161.
[27] GERHARDS J,MUTZ M,WAGNER GG. Die berechnung des siegers:der einfluss von marktwert,ungleichheit,diversitt und routine auf die leistung professioneller fuballteams[J]. Zeitschrift für Soziologie,2014,43(3):231-250.
[28] HERM S,CALLSEN-BRACKER HM,KREIS H.When the crowd evaluates soccer players'market values:accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community[J]. Sport Management Review,2014,17(4):484-492.
[29] FRANCK E,NESCH S. Talent and/or popularity:what does it take to be superstar?[J]. Economic Inquiry,2012,50(1):202-216.
[30] KIEFER S. The impact of the Euro 2012 on popularity and market value of football players[J]. International Journal of Sport Finance,2014,9:95-110.
[31] GARCIA-DEL-BARRIO P,PUJOL F. Pay and performance in the Spanish soccer league:who gets the expected monopsony rents?[J].Managerial and Decision Economics,2007,28:57-70.
[32] KUETHE TH,MOTAMED M. Returns to stardom:evidence from U. S. major league soccer[J].Journal of Sports Economics,2010,11(5):567-579.
[33] ANDERSON C,SALLY D. The numbers game:why everything you know about football is wrong[M]. London:Viking,2013.
[34] TAO YL,CHUANG HL,LIN ES. Compensation and performance in major league baseball:evidence from salary dispersion and team performance[J]. International Review of Economics&Finance,2016,43:151-159.
[35] DAVIS K,MOORE WE. Some principles of stratification[J]. American Sociological Review,1945,10:242-249.
[36] SOMMERS P. Work incentives and salary distributions in the National Hockey League[J]. Atlantic Economic Journal,1998,26:119.
[37] BLOOM M. The performance effects of pay dispersion on individuals and organizations[J].Academy of Management Journal,1999,42(1):25-40.
[38] DEPKEN CA. Wage disparity and team productivity:evidence from major league baseball[J].Economics Letters,2000,67(1):87-92.
[39] BREUNIG R,GARRETT-RUMBA B,JARDIN M,et al. Wage dispersion and team performance:atheoretical model and evidence from baseball[J]. Applied Economics,2014,46(3):271-281.
[40] BUCCIOL A,FOSS NJ,PIOVESAN M. Pay dispersion and performance in teams[J]. PLoS One,2014,9(11):1-16.
[41] PAPPS KL,BRYSON A,GOMEZ R. Heterogeneous worker ability and team-based production:evidence from major league baseball,1920-2009[J]. Labour Economics,2011,18(3):310-319.
[42] TREVOR CO,REILLY G,GERHART B. Reconsidering pay dispersion's effect on the performance of interdependent work:reconciling sorting and pay inequality[J]. Academy of Management Journal,2012(55):585-610.
[43] KAHANE L,LONGLEY N,SIMMONS R. The effects of co-worker heterogeneity on firm-level output:assessing the impacts of cultural and language diversity in the National Hockey League[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2013,95(1):302-314.
[44] HAAS H,NESCH S. Are multinational teams more successful?[J]. The International Journal of Human Resource Management, 2012,23(15):3105-3113.
[45] SAKUDA KH. National diversity and team performance in low interdependence tasks[J]. Cross Cultural Management:An International Journal,2012,19(2):125-141.
[46] BEZRUKOVA K,SPELL CS,CALDWELL D,et al. A multilevel perspective on faultlines:differentiating the effects between group-and organizational level faultlines[J]. Journal of Applied Psychology,2016,101(1):86-107.
[47] LAZEAR EP. Globalisation and the market for team-mates[J]. The Economic Journal,1999,109(454):15-40.
[48] KALTER F. Chancen fouls,abseitsfallen. Migranten im deutschen Ligenfuball[M]. Opladen:Westdeutscher Verlag,2003.
[49] TAJFEL H,TURNER JC. The social identity theory of intergroup behavior[J]. Psychology of Intergroup Relations,1986,13(3):7-24.
[50] MCLEOD PL,LOBEL SA,COX THJ. Ethnic diversity and creativity in small groups[J]. Small Group Research,1996,27(2):248-264.
[51] ANDRESEN M,ALTMANN T. Diversity und Erfolg im Profifuball[J]. Zeitschrift Führung+Organisation,2006,75:325-332.
[52] BRANDES L,FRANCK E,THEILER P. The effect from national diversity on team production:empirical evidence from the sports industry[J].Schmalenbach Business Review,2009,61(2):225-246.
[53] EDMONDSON A. Psychological safety and learning behavior in work teams[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly,1999,44(2):350-83.
[54] HUCKMAN RS,STAATS BR,UPTON DM. Team familiarity,role experience,and performance:evidence from Indian software services[J]. Management Science,2009,55(1):85-100.
[55] BORLAND J,MACDONALD R. Demand for sport[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2003,19(4):478-502.
[56] SZYMANSKI S. Income inequality,competitive balance and the attractiveness of team sports:some evidence and a natural experiment from English soccer[J]. The Economic Journal, 2001,111(469):69-84.
[57] GARCA J,RODRGUEZ P. The determinants of football match attendance revisited:empirical evidence from the Spanish football league[J]. Journal of Sports Economics,2002,3(1):18-38.
[58] ROTTMANN H,SEITZ F. Wer und was bestimmen die Zuschauerzahlen in der Fuballbundesliga?[J].Schmollers Jahrbuch. Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften,2008,128:291-306.
[59] ALAVY K,GASKELL A,LEACH S,et al. On the edge of your seat:demand for football on television and the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis[J]. International Journal of Sport Finance,2010,5:75-95.