中美贸易摩擦对中国制造业全球价值链地位的影响
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摘要
中美贸易摩擦会抑制中国制造业在全球生产网络中间接出口的国内增加值率,同时也会使基于后向联系的生产长度相对更快地缩短,从而引致生产线位置相对向上游移动,最终提高中国制造业在全球价值链中的地位。中美贸易摩擦是长期性和复杂化的,因此,中国应进一步开放并深层次地融入世界经济,换取更广阔更持续的发展空间;政府部门应有效地激励企业进行转型升级,推动相关产业向价值链上游移动;企业应拓展新产品类别、向替代产品转移,或对产品进行深加工,以及直接出口原材料和中间产品。同时,我国应培育更多的自主核心技术,推动产业升级,实现生产环节向价值链高端迈进。
Sino-US trade friction will inhibit the domestic value-added rate of indirect exports of Chinese manufacturing in the global production network, and will also shorten the production length based on backward linkages at a faster speed, leading to the movement of the position of production lines towards the upstream and ultimately improving the position of Chinese manufacturing in the global value chain. Sino-US trade friction is long-term and complicated. Therefore, China should further open up and deepen its integration into the world economy in exchange for a broader and more sustainable development space. Government departments should effectively motivate enterprises to carry out transformation and upgrading and promote related industries to move towards the upstream. Enterprises should expand new product categories, transfer to alternative products, or carry out deep processing of products, as well as directly export raw materials and intermediate products. At the same time, China should cultivate more independent core technologies, promote industrial upgrading and transformation,and realize the movement of production links towards the high end of the value chain.
Sino-US trade friction will inhibit the domestic value-added rate of indirect exports of Chinese manufacturing in the global production network, and will also shorten the production length based on backward linkages at a faster speed, leading to the movement of the position of production lines towards the upstream and ultimately improving the position of Chinese manufacturing in the global value chain. Sino-US trade friction is long-term and complicated. Therefore, China should further open up and deepen its integration into the world economy in exchange for a broader and more sustainable development space. Government departments should effectively motivate enterprises to carry out transformation and upgrading and promote related industries to move towards the upstream. Enterprises should expand new product categories, transfer to alternative products, or carry out deep processing of products, as well as directly export raw materials and intermediate products. At the same time, China should cultivate more independent core technologies, promote industrial upgrading and transformation,and realize the movement of production links towards the high end of the value chain.
引文
[1]黄鹏,汪建新,孟雪.经济全球化再平衡与中美贸易摩擦[J].北京:中国工业经济,2018(10):156-174.
[2]李晓.中美贸易失衡与特朗普发动贸易战的目的[J].天津:南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(03):5-8.
[3]Hoekman,B.M.,Leidy,M.P.Cascading Contingent Protection[J].European Economic Review,1992,36(4):883-892
[4]Feinberg,R.and Kaplan,S.Fishing Down-stream:The Political Economy of Effective Adminis-tered Protection[J].Canadian of Journal of Eco-nomics,1993(26):150-158.
[5]王孝松,吕越,赵春明.贸易壁垒与全球价值链嵌入---以中国遭遇反倾销为例[J].北京:中国社会科学,2017(01):108-124+206-207.
[6]余振,周冰惠,谢旭斌,王梓楠.参与全球价值链重构与中美贸易摩擦[J].北京:中国工业经济,2018(07):24-42.
[7]杜威剑,李梦洁.反倾销对多产品企业出口绩效的影响[J].上海:世界经济研究,2018(09):55-67+136.
[8]谢建国,黄秋月.反倾销与中国的出口损害---基于美国对华贸易反倾销案例数据的研究[J].上海:世界经济研究,2014(02):41-47+88.
[9]Baylis,K.and Perloff J.M.Trade Diversion from Tomato Suspension Agreements[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2010,43(1):127-151.
[10]李猛,王纪孔.东道国宏观经济特征、反倾销与中国对外直接投资[J].上海:世界经济研究,2014(04):73-79+89.
[11]罗胜强,鲍晓华.企业会因为遭遇反倾销而增加出口吗[J].北京:国际贸易问题,2018(03):124-137.
[12]齐俊妍,孙倩.中国遭遇反倾销与对外反倾销贸易效应比较分析[J].北京:财贸经济,2014(07):95-106+81.
[13]Koopman,R.,W.Powers,and Z.Wang.Give Credit Where Credit Is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[R].NBER Working Paper,2010.
[14]Wang Z,Wei S,Yu X,Zhu K.Characterizing Global Value Chains:Production Length and Upstreamness[R].NBERWorking Paper,2017a.
[15]Hummels,D.Jun,I.and Yi,K.M.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[16]康淑娟.行业异质性视角下的中国制造业在全球价值链中的地位及影响因素[J].北京:国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2018(04):74-85.
[17]邱斌,叶龙凤,孙少勤.参与全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链提升影响的实证研究---基于出口复杂度的分析[J].北京:中国工业经济,2012(01):57-67.
[18]丁一兵,刘威.进口产品复杂度对产业结构高级化的影响---来自中国34个工业行业的经验研究[J].武汉:经济评论,2018(03):31-45.
(1)Wang等通过建立生产分解模型的核算框架,重新定义了国家-部门层面参与全球价值链的位置等指标。[14]
(2)c5食品、饮料和烟草业,c6纺织品、服装和皮革制品业,c7木材加工及草编制品业,c8纸及纸制品制造业,c9印刷和记录媒体的复制业,c10石油加工及炼焦业,c11化学原料及化学制品业、c12基础医药和制剂制造业、c13橡胶和塑料制品业、c14非金属矿物制品业、c15基本金属制品业、c16金属制品业(除机械设备)、c17计算机、电子产品和光学产品制造业、c18电气设备制造业、c19机械设备制造业、c20机动车、拖车和半挂车制造业、c21其他运输设备制造业、c22家具制造和其他制造业。
[2]李晓.中美贸易失衡与特朗普发动贸易战的目的[J].天津:南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(03):5-8.
[3]Hoekman,B.M.,Leidy,M.P.Cascading Contingent Protection[J].European Economic Review,1992,36(4):883-892
[4]Feinberg,R.and Kaplan,S.Fishing Down-stream:The Political Economy of Effective Adminis-tered Protection[J].Canadian of Journal of Eco-nomics,1993(26):150-158.
[5]王孝松,吕越,赵春明.贸易壁垒与全球价值链嵌入---以中国遭遇反倾销为例[J].北京:中国社会科学,2017(01):108-124+206-207.
[6]余振,周冰惠,谢旭斌,王梓楠.参与全球价值链重构与中美贸易摩擦[J].北京:中国工业经济,2018(07):24-42.
[7]杜威剑,李梦洁.反倾销对多产品企业出口绩效的影响[J].上海:世界经济研究,2018(09):55-67+136.
[8]谢建国,黄秋月.反倾销与中国的出口损害---基于美国对华贸易反倾销案例数据的研究[J].上海:世界经济研究,2014(02):41-47+88.
[9]Baylis,K.and Perloff J.M.Trade Diversion from Tomato Suspension Agreements[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2010,43(1):127-151.
[10]李猛,王纪孔.东道国宏观经济特征、反倾销与中国对外直接投资[J].上海:世界经济研究,2014(04):73-79+89.
[11]罗胜强,鲍晓华.企业会因为遭遇反倾销而增加出口吗[J].北京:国际贸易问题,2018(03):124-137.
[12]齐俊妍,孙倩.中国遭遇反倾销与对外反倾销贸易效应比较分析[J].北京:财贸经济,2014(07):95-106+81.
[13]Koopman,R.,W.Powers,and Z.Wang.Give Credit Where Credit Is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[R].NBER Working Paper,2010.
[14]Wang Z,Wei S,Yu X,Zhu K.Characterizing Global Value Chains:Production Length and Upstreamness[R].NBERWorking Paper,2017a.
[15]Hummels,D.Jun,I.and Yi,K.M.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54(1):75-96.
[16]康淑娟.行业异质性视角下的中国制造业在全球价值链中的地位及影响因素[J].北京:国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2018(04):74-85.
[17]邱斌,叶龙凤,孙少勤.参与全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链提升影响的实证研究---基于出口复杂度的分析[J].北京:中国工业经济,2012(01):57-67.
[18]丁一兵,刘威.进口产品复杂度对产业结构高级化的影响---来自中国34个工业行业的经验研究[J].武汉:经济评论,2018(03):31-45.
(1)Wang等通过建立生产分解模型的核算框架,重新定义了国家-部门层面参与全球价值链的位置等指标。[14]
(2)c5食品、饮料和烟草业,c6纺织品、服装和皮革制品业,c7木材加工及草编制品业,c8纸及纸制品制造业,c9印刷和记录媒体的复制业,c10石油加工及炼焦业,c11化学原料及化学制品业、c12基础医药和制剂制造业、c13橡胶和塑料制品业、c14非金属矿物制品业、c15基本金属制品业、c16金属制品业(除机械设备)、c17计算机、电子产品和光学产品制造业、c18电气设备制造业、c19机械设备制造业、c20机动车、拖车和半挂车制造业、c21其他运输设备制造业、c22家具制造和其他制造业。