耦合模式ICM模拟的近千年气候特征
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摘要
利用中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心发展的气候模式(Integrated Climate Model,ICM)开展了近千年气候模拟试验,考察了模式对过去千年温度和大气涛动变化的模拟,并分析了全球季风百年到千年尺度的变化。结果表明:模式对百年尺度气候变率有较好的模拟能力,900~1200年北半球平均表面温度偏高,1500~1800年温度偏低,模拟的北半球、南半球平均表面温度都呈现出了19世纪至2000年的快速增暖。模式对大气涛动百年尺度变化的模拟与重建资料存在较大的不同。全球季风在850~1050年、1150~1200年和1300~1420加强,在1210~1300年和1600~1850年减弱。1875~2000年全球季风指数呈直线上升趋势。中世纪气候异常期(MWP)季风强度在全球大部分季风区域增加,小冰期(LIA)则相反。20世纪暖期(PWP)全球季风强度显著增加,其中赤道西太平洋增加超过1 mm/d。
In this study,the last millennium transient simulation of Integrated Climate Model(ICM) climate model developed in Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences is presented.The model was driven by up-to-date external forcings,and the simulation could reproduce many large-scale climate variations of surface temperature and atmospheric oscillation suggested by reconstructions.The centennial scale changes of global monsoon were further studied.Results indicate that the overall variations of temperature and atmospheric oscillation during the last millennium are reasonably reproduced by ICM.The northern hemisphere surface temperature is higher than average during 900-1200 but lower than average during 1500-1800.The simulated hemispheric scale surface temperature shows an unprecedented warming from the 1800 s to present.The simulation didn't well reproduce the reconstructed Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).Over the past millennium,the simulated global monsoon shows significant centennial variations.The global monsoon strengthens during 850-1050,1150-1200,and 1300-1420.Conversely,it weakens during 1210-1300 and 16000-1850.In the last century,the global monsoon index shows a prominent upward trend.During the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),precipitation increases in most parts of the global monsoon regions,but decreases within the Little Ice Age(LIA).The global monsoon strengthens markedly during the Present Warm Period(PWP),and the precipitation rate in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean increases by 1 mm/d.
In this study,the last millennium transient simulation of Integrated Climate Model(ICM) climate model developed in Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences is presented.The model was driven by up-to-date external forcings,and the simulation could reproduce many large-scale climate variations of surface temperature and atmospheric oscillation suggested by reconstructions.The centennial scale changes of global monsoon were further studied.Results indicate that the overall variations of temperature and atmospheric oscillation during the last millennium are reasonably reproduced by ICM.The northern hemisphere surface temperature is higher than average during 900-1200 but lower than average during 1500-1800.The simulated hemispheric scale surface temperature shows an unprecedented warming from the 1800 s to present.The simulation didn't well reproduce the reconstructed Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).Over the past millennium,the simulated global monsoon shows significant centennial variations.The global monsoon strengthens during 850-1050,1150-1200,and 1300-1420.Conversely,it weakens during 1210-1300 and 16000-1850.In the last century,the global monsoon index shows a prominent upward trend.During the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),precipitation increases in most parts of the global monsoon regions,but decreases within the Little Ice Age(LIA).The global monsoon strengthens markedly during the Present Warm Period(PWP),and the precipitation rate in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean increases by 1 mm/d.
引文
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李双林,王彦明,郜永祺.2009.北大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)气候影响的研究评述[J].大气科学学报,32(3):458-465.Li Shuanglin,Wang Yanming,Gao Yongqi.2009.A review of the researches on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and its climate influence[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(3):458-465.
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