全球环境变化对典型生态系统的影响研究:现状、挑战与发展趋势
|
摘要
随着全球环境变化和人类活动对生态系统影响的日益加深,生态系统结构和功能发生强烈变化,生态系统提供各类资源和服务的能力在显著下降。在这种背景下,全面认识生态系统的结构功能与全球环境变化的关系已成为当前生态学研究的热点之一。本文综述了全球环境变化对典型生态系统(包括森林生态系统、河口湿地生态系统、城市生态系统)影响以及全球环境变化适应的研究现状,分析研究面临的困难及挑战。在此基础上,提出对未来研究发展趋势的展望。在森林生态系统与全球环境变化研究上,未来应重视能更好模拟现实情景的、多因子、长期的全球环境变化控制试验,并注重不同生物地球化学循环之间的耦合作用。在湿地生态系统与全球环境变化研究上,未来应加强氮沉降、硫沉降及盐水入侵对湿地生态系统碳氮循环的影响,明晰滨海湿地的蓝碳功能,加强极端气候和人类干扰影响下湿地生态系统结构和功能变化及恢复力的研究。在城市生态系统与全球环境变化研究上,未来应深化城市生物地球化学循环机制研究,实现城市生态系统的人本需求侧重与转向,并开展典型地区长期、多要素综合响应研究。在全球环境变化适应研究上,未来应构架定量化、跨尺度的适应性评价体系,加强典型区域/部门的适应性研究以及适应策略实施的可行性研究,注重适应与减缓对策的关联研究及实施的风险评估。期望本综述为我国生态系统与全球环境变化研究提供一些参考。
With the increasing impacts of global environmental changes and human activities on ecosystems,structures and functions of ecosystem change greatly,and their capacities in providing all kinds of services and resources are deteriorating.Therefore,a comprehensive understanding of the relationships between structures and functions of ecosystems and global environmental changes has become the research focus in ecology. This paper reviews the impacts of global environmental changes on typical ecosystems( including forest ecosystem,estuary wetland ecosystem and city ecosystem) and the adaptation to the global change,analyzes the difficulties and challenges facing ahead,and based on this puts forward the prospects for future researches. For the study of the relationships between forest ecosystems and global environmental changes,the future research will pay attention to long-term global environmental change experiments with controlled multi-factors and better simulated reality,and the coupling function between different biogeochemical cycles. For the study on the relationships between wetland ecosystems and global environmental changes,we will focus on the impacts of nitrogen deposition,sulfur deposition and salt water intrusion on carbon and nitrogen cycles in wetland ecosystem,clarify blue carbon function of coastal wetland,and learn more about the changes in structure and function of wetland ecosystems and their resilience under the influences of the extreme climate and human disturbance. For the study on the relationships between urban ecosystems and global environmental changes,we will deepen the understanding of the mechanisms of urban biogeochemical cycles,attach importance to humanistic demand in urban ecosystem and carry out long-term,multi-factor responsive researches in typical region. For the study on the adaptation to global environmental changes,a quantified and trans-scale adaptability evaluation system should be established,and we will strengthen the research on the adaptability of typical area / department and feasibility of adaptive strategy,attaching importance to the relationship between adaptive strategy and alleviating strategy,as well as the implementing risks. We hope the review will provide references for the researches on ecosystems and global environmental changes in China.
With the increasing impacts of global environmental changes and human activities on ecosystems,structures and functions of ecosystem change greatly,and their capacities in providing all kinds of services and resources are deteriorating.Therefore,a comprehensive understanding of the relationships between structures and functions of ecosystems and global environmental changes has become the research focus in ecology. This paper reviews the impacts of global environmental changes on typical ecosystems( including forest ecosystem,estuary wetland ecosystem and city ecosystem) and the adaptation to the global change,analyzes the difficulties and challenges facing ahead,and based on this puts forward the prospects for future researches. For the study of the relationships between forest ecosystems and global environmental changes,the future research will pay attention to long-term global environmental change experiments with controlled multi-factors and better simulated reality,and the coupling function between different biogeochemical cycles. For the study on the relationships between wetland ecosystems and global environmental changes,we will focus on the impacts of nitrogen deposition,sulfur deposition and salt water intrusion on carbon and nitrogen cycles in wetland ecosystem,clarify blue carbon function of coastal wetland,and learn more about the changes in structure and function of wetland ecosystems and their resilience under the influences of the extreme climate and human disturbance. For the study on the relationships between urban ecosystems and global environmental changes,we will deepen the understanding of the mechanisms of urban biogeochemical cycles,attach importance to humanistic demand in urban ecosystem and carry out long-term,multi-factor responsive researches in typical region. For the study on the adaptation to global environmental changes,a quantified and trans-scale adaptability evaluation system should be established,and we will strengthen the research on the adaptability of typical area / department and feasibility of adaptive strategy,attaching importance to the relationship between adaptive strategy and alleviating strategy,as well as the implementing risks. We hope the review will provide references for the researches on ecosystems and global environmental changes in China.
引文
[1]Dai A G.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(1):52-58.
[2]Lamarque J F,Kiehl J T,Brasseur G P,Butler T,Cameron-Smith P,Collins W D,Collins W J,Granier C,Hauglustaine D,Hess P G,Holland E A,Horowitz L,2.Lawrence M G,Mc Kenna D,Merilees P,Prather M J,Rasch P J,Rotman D,Shindell D,Thornton P.Assessing future nitrogen deposition and carbon cycle feedback using a multimodel approach:analysis of nitrogen deposition.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2005,110(D19):D19303.
[3]Lu M,Zhou X H,Yang Q,Li H,Luo Y Q,Fang C M,Chen J K,Yang X,Li B.Responses of ecosystem carbon cycle to experimental warming:a meta-analysis.Ecology,2013,94(3):726-738.
[4]Davidson E A,Janssens I A.Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change.Nature,2006,440(7081):165-173.
[5]Heimann M,Reichstein M.Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks.Nature,2008,451(7176):289-292.
[6]Palmroth S,Oren R,Mc Carthy H R,Johnsen K H,Finzi A C,Butnor J R,Ryan M G,Schlesinger W H.Aboveground sink strength in forests controls the allocation of carbon belowground and its[CO2]-induced enhancement.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2006,103(51):19362–19367.
[7]van Groenigen K J,Qi X,Osenberg C W,Luo Y Q,Hungate B A.Faster decomposition under increased atmospheric CO2limits soil carbon storage.Science,2014,344(6183):508-509.
[8]Liu L L,Greaver T L.A global perspective on belowground carbon dynamics under nitrogen enrichment.Ecology Letters,2010,13(7):819-828.
[9]Janssens I A,Dieleman W,Luyssaert S,Subke J A,Reichstein M,Ceulemans R,Ciais P,Dolman A J,Grace J,Matteucci G,Papale D,Piao S L,Schulze E D,Tang J,Law B E.Reduction of forest soil respiration in response to nitrogen deposition.Nature Geoscience,2010,3(5):315-322.
[10]Cao M K,Woodward F I.Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to global climate change.Nature,1998,393(6682):249-252.
[11]Melillo J M,Steudler P A,Aber J D,Newkirk K,Lux H,Bowles F P,Catricala C,Ahrens T,Morrisseau S.Soil warming and carbon-cycle feedbacks to the climate system.Science,2002,298(5601):2173-2176.
[12]Hopkins F M,Torn M S,Trumbore S E.Warming accelerates decomposition of decades-old carbon in forest soils.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(26):E1753-E1761.
[13]Butler S M,Melillo J M,Johnson J E,Mohan J,Steudler P A,Lux H,Burrows E,Smith R M,Vario C L,Scott L,Hill T D,Aponte N,Bowles F.Soil warming alters nitrogen cycling in a New England forest:implications for ecosystem function and structure.Oecologia,2012,168(3):819-828.
[14]Melillo J M,Butler S,Johnson J,Mohan J,Steudler P,Lux H,Burrows E,Bowles F,Smith R,Scott L,Vario C,Hill T,Burton A,Zhou Y M,Tang J.Soil warming,carbon-nitrogen interactions,and forest carbon budgets.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2011,108(23):9508-9512.
[15]Cookson W R,Osman M,Marschner P,Abaye D A,Clark I,Murphy D V,Stockdale E A,Watson C A.Controls on soil nitrogen cycling and microbial community composition across land use and incubation temperature.Soil Biology and Biochemistry,2007,39(3):744-756.
[16]Bai E,Li S L,Xu W H,Li W,Dai W W,Jiang P.A meta-analysis of experimental warming effects on terrestrial nitrogen pools and dynamics.New Phytologist,2013,199(2):441-451.
[17]Chen X Y,Mulder J,Wang Y H.Atmospheric deposition,mineralization and leaching of nitrogen in subtropical forested catchments,South China.Environmental Geochemistry and Health,2004,26(2):179-186.
[18]Fang Y T,Gundersen P,Mo J M,Zhu W X.Nitrogen leaching in response to increased nitrogen inputs in subtropical monsoon forests in southern China Forest.Ecology and Management,2009a,257(1):332-342.
[19]Fang Y T,Zhu W X,Gundersen P,Mo J M,Zhou G Y,Yoh M.Large loss of dissolved organic nitrogen in nitrogen-saturated forests in subtropical China.Ecosystems,2009b,12(1):33-45.
[20]Liu X J,Duan L,Mo J M,Du E Z,Shen J L,Lu X K,Zhang Y,Zhou X B,He C E,Zhang F S.Nitrogen deposition and its ecological impact in China:an overview.Environmental Pollution,2011,159(10):2251-2264.
[21]Cleveland C C,Townsend A R,Taylor P,Alvarez-Clare S,Bustamante M M C,Chuyong G,Dobrowski S Z,Grierson P,Harms K E,Houlton B Z,Marklein A,Parton W,Porder S,Reed S C,Sierra C A,Silver W L,Tanner E V J,Wieder W R.Relationships among net primary productivity,nutrients and climate in tropical rain forest:a pan-tropical analysis.Ecology Letters,2011,14(9):939-947.
[22]Dijkstra F A,Pendall E,Morgan J A,Blumenthal D M,Carrillo Y,Le Cain D R,Follett R F,Williams D G.Climate change alters stoichiometry of phosphorus and nitrogen in a semiarid grassland.New Phytologist,2012,196(3):807-815.
[23]Xu X F,Thornton P E,Post W M.A global analysis of soil microbial biomass carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecosystems.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2013,22(6):737-749.
[24]Matías L,Castro J,Zamora R.Soil-nutrient availability under a global-change scenario in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem.Global change biology,2011,17(4):1646-1657.
[25]Menge D N,Field C B.Simulated global changes alter phosphorus demand in annual grassland.Global Change Biology,2007,13(12):2582-2591.
[26]Sardans J,Peuelas J.Increasing drought decreases phosphorus availability in an evergreen Mediterranean forest.Plant and Soil,2004,267(1-2):367-377.
[27]Hui D F,Deng Q,Tian H Q,Luo Y Q.Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration in Forest Ecosystems.Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation,2017:555-594.
[28]Duarte C M,Losada I J,Hendriks I E,Mazarrasa I,MarbàN.The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(11):961-968.
[29]Temmerman S,Meire P,Bouma T J,Herman P M J,Ysebaert T,De Vriend H J.Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change.Nature,2013,504(7478):79-83.
[30]Webb E L,Friess D A,Krauss K W,Cahoon D R,Guntenspergen G R,Phelps J.A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(5):458-465.
[31]Osland M J,Enwright N,Day R H,Doyle T W.Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species:salt marshes vs.mangrove forests in the southeastern United States.Global Change Biology,2013,19(5):1482-1494.
[32]Garris H W,Mitchell R J,Fraser L H,Barrett L R.Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states.Global Change Biology,2015,21(2):766-776.
[33]Cahoon D R.Estimating relative sea-level rise and submergence potential at a coastal wetland.Estuaries and Coasts,2015,38(3):1077-1084.
[34]Nuse B L,Cooper R J,Hunter E A.Prospects for predicting changes to coastal wetland bird populations due to accelerated sea level rise.Ecosphere,2015,6(12):1-23.
[35]Spencer T,Schuerch M,Nicholls R J,Hinkel J,Lincke D,Vafeidis A T,Reef R,Mc Fadden L,Brown S.Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses:the DIVA wetland change model.Global and Planetary Change,2016,139:15-30.
[36]Guo W Y,Lambertini C,Li X Z,Meyerson L A,Brix H.Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World:precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche.Global Change Biology,2013,19(11):3406-3422.
[37]Lishawa S C,Lawrence B A,Albert D A,Tuchman N C.Biomass harvest of invasive Typha promotes plant diversity in a Great Lakes coastal wetland.Restoration Ecology,2015,23(3):228-237.
[38]Kirwan M L,Mudd S M.Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.Nature,2012,489(7417):550-553.
[39]Gatland J R,Santos I R,Maher D T,Duncan T M,Erler D V.Carbon dioxide and methane emissions from an artificially drained coastal wetland during a flood:Implications for wetland global warming potential.Journal of Geophysical Research:Biogeosciences,2014,119(8):1698-1716.
[40]Grafton R Q,Pittock J,Davis R,Williams J,Fu G B,Warburton M,Udall B,Mc Kenzie R,Yu X B,Che N,Connell D,Jiang Q,Kompas T,Lynch A,Norris R,Possingham H,Quiggin J.Global insights into water resources,climate change and governance.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(4):315-321.
[41]Hulme P E.Adapting to climate change:is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat?Journal of Applied Ecology,2005,42(5):784-794.
[42]Bridgham S D,Cadillo-Quiroz H,Keller J K,Zhuang Q L.Methane emissions from wetlands:biogeochemical,microbial,and modeling perspectives from local to global scales.Global Change Biology,2013,19(5):1325-1346.
[43]Mitsch W J,Bernal B,Nahlik A M,Mander,Zhang L,Anderson C J,Jrgensen S E,Brix H.Wetlands,carbon,and climate change.Landscape Ecology,2013,28(4):583-597.
[44]Erwin K L.Wetlands and global climate change:the role of wetland restoration in a changing world.Wetlands Ecology and Management,2009,17(1):71-84.
[45]Cormier N,Krauss K W,Conner W H.Periodicity in stem growth and litterfall in tidal freshwater forested wetlands:influence of salinity and drought on nitrogen recycling.Estuaries and Coasts,2013,36(3):533-546.
[46]Wassens S,Walcott A,Wilson A,Freire R.Frog breeding in rain-fed wetlands after a period of severe drought:implications for predicting the impacts of climate change.Hydrobiologia,2013,708(1):69-80.
[47]Diez J M,D'Antonio C M,Dukes J S,Grosholz E D,Olden J D,Sorte C J B,Blumenthal D M,Bradley B A,Early R,Ibáez I,Jones S J,Lawler J J,Miller L P.Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2012,10(5):249-257.
[48]Burkett V,Kusler J.Climate change:potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States.Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2000,36(2):313-320.
[49]Morris J T,Sundareshwar P V,Nietch C T,Kjerfve B,Cahoon D R.Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level.Ecology,2002,83(10):2869-2877.
[50]Chambers R M,Odum W E.Porewater oxidation,dissolved phosphate and the iron curtain:iron-phosphorus relations in tidal freshwater marshes.Biogeochemistry,1990,10(1):37-52.
[51]Lamers L P M,Dolle G E T,Van Den Berg S T G,Van Delft S P J,Roelofs J G M.Differential responses of freshwater wetland soils to sulphate pollution.Biogeochemistry,2001,55(1):87-101.
[52]Caraco N F,Cole J J,Likens G E.Evidence for sulphate-controlled phosphorus release from sediments of aquatic systems.Nature,1989,341(6240):316-318.
[53]Rysgaard S,Thastum P,Dalsgaard T,Christensen P B,Sloth N P.Effects of salinity on NH+4adsorption capacity,nitrification,and denitrification in Danish estuarine sediments.Estuaries,1999,22(1):21-30.
[54]Bu N S,Qu J F,Zhao H,Yan Q W,Zhao B,Fan J L,Fang C M,Li G.Effects of semi-lunar tidal cycling on soil CO2and CH4emissions:a case study in the Yangtze River estuary,China.Wetlands Ecology and Management,2015,23(4):727-736.
[55]IPCC.Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis:Summary for Policymakers.(2014-01-29)[2016-11-20].http://www.climatechange 2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf
[56]陈少勇,王劲松,郭俊庭,芦旭东.中国西北地区1961—2009年极端高温事件的演变特征.自然资源学报,2012,27(5):832-844.
[57]王艳姣,任福民,闫峰.中国区域持续性高温事件时空变化特征研究.地理科学,2013,33(3):314-321.
[58]李娇,任国玉,任玉玉,沈志超,孙秀宝.辽宁地区夏季高温极值预测模型.气象与环境学报,2012,28(6):50—57.
[59]史军,丁一汇,崔林丽.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析.大气科学,2009,33(2):347-358.
[60]郑祚芳.北京极端气温变化特征及其对城市化的响应.地理科学,2011,31(4):459-463.
[61]杨萍,肖子牛,刘伟东.北京气温日变化特征的城郊差异及其季节变化分析.大气科学,2013,37(1):101-112.
[62]Kürbis K,Mudelsee M,Tetzlaff G,Brázdil R.Trends in extremes of temperature,dew point,and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2009,98(1-2):187-195.
[63]陈正洪,史瑞琴,陈波.季节变化对全球气候变化的响应——以湖北省为例.地理科学,2009,29(6):911-916.
[64]Panday P K,Thibeault J,Frey K E.Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region:an analysis of CMIP3and CMIP5 simulations and projections.International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(10):3058-3077.
[65]李庆祥,黄嘉佑.环渤海地区城市化对夏季极端暖夜的影响.气象学报,2013,71(4):668-676.
[66]Schlünzen K H,Hoffmann P,Rosenhagen G,Riecke W.Long-term changes and regional differences in temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan area of Hamburg.International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(8):1121-1136.
[67]Dettinger M D,Ghil M,Keppenne C L.Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures,1910-87.Climatic Change,1995,31(1):35-66.
[68]赵昕奕,张惠远,万军.青藏高原气候变化对气候带的影响.地理科学,2002,22(2):190-195.
[69]黄亮,高苹,谢小萍,谢志清,于庚康.全球增暖背景下中国干湿气候带变化规律研究.气象科学,2013,33(5):570-576.
[70]White C J,Mc Innes K L,Cechet R P,Corney S P,Grose M R,Holz G K,Katzfey J J,Bindoff N L.On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania,Australia.Climate dynamics,2013,41(11-12):3145-3165.
[71]邓振镛,张强,尹宪志,孙存杰,辛吉武,刘德祥,蒲金涌,董安祥.干旱灾害对干旱气候变化的响应.冰川冻土,2007,29(1):114-118.
[72]Kovats R S,Hajat S.Heat stress and public health:a critical review.Annual Review of Public Health,2008,29:41-55.
[73]王敏珍,郑山,王式功,尚可政.高温热浪对人类健康影响的研究进展.环境与健康杂志,2012,29(7):662-664.
[74]韦惠兰,欧阳青虎.气候变化对中国半干旱区农民生计影响初探——以甘肃省半干旱区为例.干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):117-121.
[75]Jones P G,Thornton P K.Croppers to livestock keepers:livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change.Environmental Science&Policy,2009,12(4):427-437.
[76]Schilling J,Freier K P,Hertig E,Scheffran J.Climate change,vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco.Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2012,156:12-26.
[77]李克让,曹明奎,於琍,吴绍洪.中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估.地理研究,2005,24(5):653-663.
[78]欧阳志云,王效科,苗鸿.中国陆地生态系统服务功能及其生态经济价值的初步研究.生态学报,1999,19(5):607-613.
[79]孟雪松,欧阳志云,崔国发,李伟峰,郑华.北京城市生态系统植物种类构成及其分布特征.生态学报,2004,24(10):2200-2206.
[80]孙昌龙,靳诺,张小雷,杜宏茹.城市化不同演化阶段对碳排放的影响差异.地理科学,2013,33(3):266-272.
[81]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004.中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161.
[82]杨凯,叶茂,徐启新.上海城市废弃物增长的环境库兹涅茨特征研究.地理研究,2003,22(1):60-66.
[83]虞依娜,陈丽丽.中国环境库兹涅茨曲线研究进展.生态环境学报,2012,21(12):2018-2023.
[84]Liu Z,Guan D B,Crawford-Brown D,Zhang Q,He K B,Liu J G.Energy policy:A low-carbon road map for China.Nature,2013,500(7461):143-145.
[85]张雷.中国一次能源消费的碳排放区域格局变化.地理研究,2006,25(1):1-9.
[86]祁悦,谢高地.碳排放空间分配及其对中国区域功能的影响.资源科学,2009,31(4):590-597.
[87]朱永彬,王铮,庞丽,王丽娟,邹秀萍.基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测.地理学报,2009,64(8):935-944.
[88]张馨,牛叔文,赵春升,胡莉莉.中国城市化进程中的居民家庭能源消费及碳排放研究.中国软科学,2011,(9):65-75.
[89]Halicioglu F.An econometric study of CO2emissions,energy consumption,income and foreign trade in Turkey.Energy Policy,2009,37(3):1156-1164.
[90]赵荣钦,黄贤金,徐慧,高珊.城市系统碳循环与碳管理研究进展.自然资源学报,2009,24(10):1847-1859
[91]刘纪远,邵全琴,延晓冬,樊江文,邓祥征,战金艳,高学杰,黄麟,徐新良,胡云峰,王军邦,匡文慧.土地利用变化对全球气候影响的研究进展与方法初探.地球科学进展,2011,26(10):1015-1022.
[92]郑海金,华珞,欧立业.中国土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究综述.首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,24(3):89-95.
[93]杜习乐,吕昌河,王海荣.土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)的环境效应研究进展.土壤,2011,43(3):350-360.
[94]Jordan T E,Weller D E,Correll D L.Sources of nutrient inputs to the Patuxent River estuary.Estuaries,2003,26(2):226-243.
[95]Groffman P M,Law N L,Belt K T,Band L E,Fisher G T.Nitrogen fluxes and retention in urban watershed ecosystems.Ecosystems,2004,7(4):393-403.
[96]王淑兰,张远航,钟流举,李金龙,于群.珠江三角洲城市间空气污染的相互影响.中国环境科学,2005,25(2):133-137.
[97]许珊,邹滨,蒲强,郭宇.土地利用/覆盖的空气污染效应分析.地球信息科学学报,2015,17(3):290-299.
[98]夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战.资源科学,2002,24(3):1-7.
[99]赵文武,傅伯杰,陈利顶,吕一河,刘永琴.黄土丘陵沟壑区集水区尺度土地利用格局变化的水土流失效应.生态学报,2004,24(7):1358-1364.
[100]吴建国,吕佳佳.土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响.生态环境学报,2008,17(3):1276-1281.
[101]陈广生,田汉勤.土地利用/覆盖变化对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响.植物生态学报,2007,31(2):189-204.
[102]郑大玮,潘志华.适应气候变化的意义.中国西部科技,2015,14(4):40-41.
[103]Rael R C,Costantino R F,Cushing J M,Vincent T L.Using stage-structured evolutionary game theory to model the experimentally observed evolution of a genetic polymorphism.Evolutionary Ecology Research,2009,11:141-151.
[104]Bose P S.Vulnerabilities and displacements:adaptation and mitigation to climate change as a new development mantra.Area,2016,48(2):168-175.
[105]Edenhofer O,Seyboth K.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)//Shogren J,ed.Encyclopedia of Energy,Natural Resource,and Environmental Economics.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2013,1:48-56.
[106]陈宜瑜.对开展全球环境变化区域适应研究的几点看法.地球科学进展,2004,19(4):495-499.
[107]Ivey J L,Smithers J,de LoR C,Kreutzwiser R D.Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages:linking institutional complexity and local actors.Environmental Management,2004,33(1):36-47.
[108]Adger W N.Social capital,collective action,and adaptation to climate change.Economic Geography,2003,79(4):387–404.
[109]Adger W N,Dessai S,Goulden M,Hulme M,Lorenzoni I,Nelson D R,Naess L O,Wolf J,Wreford A.Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?Climatic Change,2009,93(3-4):335-354.
[110]Pike A,Dawley S,Tomaney J.Resilience,adaptation and adaptability.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):59-70.
[111]Ndamani F,Watanabe T.Determinants of farmers'adaptation to climate change:a micro level analysis in Ghana.Scientia Agricola,2016,73(3):201-208.
[112]Kato T,Ellis J.Communicating Progress in National and Global Adaptation to Climate Change.OECD/IEA Climate Change Expert Group Papers,2016.
[113]Adger W N,Arnell N W,Tompkins E L.Successful adaptation to climate change across scales.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(2):77-86.
[114]Mertz O,Halsns K,Olesen J E,Rasmussen K.Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries.Environmental Management,2009,43(5):743-752.
[115]O'Brien K,Eriksen S,Schjolden A,Nygaard L P.What's in a Word?Conflicting Interpretations of Vulnerability in Climate Change Research.Climate Policy,2004,7-7.
[116]Kloeckner C A.Towards a Psychology of Climate Change//Filho W L,ed.The Economic,Social and Political Elements of Climate Change.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2011:153-173.
[117]Rindfuss R R,Walsh S J,Turner B L,Fox J,Mishra V.Developing a science of land change:challenges and methodological issues.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2004,101(39):13976-13981.
[118]Fu R,Pu L,Qian M,Zhu M.Multi-agent system in land-use change modeling//Tian H H,Zhou M,eds.Advances in Information Technology and Education.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2011:288-295.
[119]Bryant C R,Sarr M A,Délusca K.Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change.Switzerland:Springer International Publishing,2016.
[120]Eakin H,Lemos M C.Adaptation and the state:Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization.Global Environmental Change,2006,16(1):7-18.
[121]Plummer R,Armitage D.Integrating perspectives on adaptive capacity and environmental governance//Armitage D,Plummer R,eds.Adaptive Capacity and Environmental Governance.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2010:1-19.
[122]王如松.转型期城市生态学前沿研究进展.生态学报,2000,20(5):830-840.
[123]Mccarthy J J,Canziani O F,Leary N A,Dokken D J,White K S.Climate Change 2001:Impacts,Adaptation,and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001:81-111.
[124]Grimm N B,Faeth S H,Golubiewski N E,Redman C L,Wu J G,Bai X M,Briggs J M.Global change and the ecology of cities.Science,2008,319(5864):756-760.
[125]Simonovic S P.Adaptation to climate change:risk management//Elpida K,Oishi S,Teegavarapu R S V,eds.Sustainable Water Resources Planning and Management Under Climate Change.Singapore:Springer,2017.
[2]Lamarque J F,Kiehl J T,Brasseur G P,Butler T,Cameron-Smith P,Collins W D,Collins W J,Granier C,Hauglustaine D,Hess P G,Holland E A,Horowitz L,2.Lawrence M G,Mc Kenna D,Merilees P,Prather M J,Rasch P J,Rotman D,Shindell D,Thornton P.Assessing future nitrogen deposition and carbon cycle feedback using a multimodel approach:analysis of nitrogen deposition.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2005,110(D19):D19303.
[3]Lu M,Zhou X H,Yang Q,Li H,Luo Y Q,Fang C M,Chen J K,Yang X,Li B.Responses of ecosystem carbon cycle to experimental warming:a meta-analysis.Ecology,2013,94(3):726-738.
[4]Davidson E A,Janssens I A.Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change.Nature,2006,440(7081):165-173.
[5]Heimann M,Reichstein M.Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks.Nature,2008,451(7176):289-292.
[6]Palmroth S,Oren R,Mc Carthy H R,Johnsen K H,Finzi A C,Butnor J R,Ryan M G,Schlesinger W H.Aboveground sink strength in forests controls the allocation of carbon belowground and its[CO2]-induced enhancement.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2006,103(51):19362–19367.
[7]van Groenigen K J,Qi X,Osenberg C W,Luo Y Q,Hungate B A.Faster decomposition under increased atmospheric CO2limits soil carbon storage.Science,2014,344(6183):508-509.
[8]Liu L L,Greaver T L.A global perspective on belowground carbon dynamics under nitrogen enrichment.Ecology Letters,2010,13(7):819-828.
[9]Janssens I A,Dieleman W,Luyssaert S,Subke J A,Reichstein M,Ceulemans R,Ciais P,Dolman A J,Grace J,Matteucci G,Papale D,Piao S L,Schulze E D,Tang J,Law B E.Reduction of forest soil respiration in response to nitrogen deposition.Nature Geoscience,2010,3(5):315-322.
[10]Cao M K,Woodward F I.Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to global climate change.Nature,1998,393(6682):249-252.
[11]Melillo J M,Steudler P A,Aber J D,Newkirk K,Lux H,Bowles F P,Catricala C,Ahrens T,Morrisseau S.Soil warming and carbon-cycle feedbacks to the climate system.Science,2002,298(5601):2173-2176.
[12]Hopkins F M,Torn M S,Trumbore S E.Warming accelerates decomposition of decades-old carbon in forest soils.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(26):E1753-E1761.
[13]Butler S M,Melillo J M,Johnson J E,Mohan J,Steudler P A,Lux H,Burrows E,Smith R M,Vario C L,Scott L,Hill T D,Aponte N,Bowles F.Soil warming alters nitrogen cycling in a New England forest:implications for ecosystem function and structure.Oecologia,2012,168(3):819-828.
[14]Melillo J M,Butler S,Johnson J,Mohan J,Steudler P,Lux H,Burrows E,Bowles F,Smith R,Scott L,Vario C,Hill T,Burton A,Zhou Y M,Tang J.Soil warming,carbon-nitrogen interactions,and forest carbon budgets.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2011,108(23):9508-9512.
[15]Cookson W R,Osman M,Marschner P,Abaye D A,Clark I,Murphy D V,Stockdale E A,Watson C A.Controls on soil nitrogen cycling and microbial community composition across land use and incubation temperature.Soil Biology and Biochemistry,2007,39(3):744-756.
[16]Bai E,Li S L,Xu W H,Li W,Dai W W,Jiang P.A meta-analysis of experimental warming effects on terrestrial nitrogen pools and dynamics.New Phytologist,2013,199(2):441-451.
[17]Chen X Y,Mulder J,Wang Y H.Atmospheric deposition,mineralization and leaching of nitrogen in subtropical forested catchments,South China.Environmental Geochemistry and Health,2004,26(2):179-186.
[18]Fang Y T,Gundersen P,Mo J M,Zhu W X.Nitrogen leaching in response to increased nitrogen inputs in subtropical monsoon forests in southern China Forest.Ecology and Management,2009a,257(1):332-342.
[19]Fang Y T,Zhu W X,Gundersen P,Mo J M,Zhou G Y,Yoh M.Large loss of dissolved organic nitrogen in nitrogen-saturated forests in subtropical China.Ecosystems,2009b,12(1):33-45.
[20]Liu X J,Duan L,Mo J M,Du E Z,Shen J L,Lu X K,Zhang Y,Zhou X B,He C E,Zhang F S.Nitrogen deposition and its ecological impact in China:an overview.Environmental Pollution,2011,159(10):2251-2264.
[21]Cleveland C C,Townsend A R,Taylor P,Alvarez-Clare S,Bustamante M M C,Chuyong G,Dobrowski S Z,Grierson P,Harms K E,Houlton B Z,Marklein A,Parton W,Porder S,Reed S C,Sierra C A,Silver W L,Tanner E V J,Wieder W R.Relationships among net primary productivity,nutrients and climate in tropical rain forest:a pan-tropical analysis.Ecology Letters,2011,14(9):939-947.
[22]Dijkstra F A,Pendall E,Morgan J A,Blumenthal D M,Carrillo Y,Le Cain D R,Follett R F,Williams D G.Climate change alters stoichiometry of phosphorus and nitrogen in a semiarid grassland.New Phytologist,2012,196(3):807-815.
[23]Xu X F,Thornton P E,Post W M.A global analysis of soil microbial biomass carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecosystems.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2013,22(6):737-749.
[24]Matías L,Castro J,Zamora R.Soil-nutrient availability under a global-change scenario in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem.Global change biology,2011,17(4):1646-1657.
[25]Menge D N,Field C B.Simulated global changes alter phosphorus demand in annual grassland.Global Change Biology,2007,13(12):2582-2591.
[26]Sardans J,Peuelas J.Increasing drought decreases phosphorus availability in an evergreen Mediterranean forest.Plant and Soil,2004,267(1-2):367-377.
[27]Hui D F,Deng Q,Tian H Q,Luo Y Q.Climate Change and Carbon Sequestration in Forest Ecosystems.Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation,2017:555-594.
[28]Duarte C M,Losada I J,Hendriks I E,Mazarrasa I,MarbàN.The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(11):961-968.
[29]Temmerman S,Meire P,Bouma T J,Herman P M J,Ysebaert T,De Vriend H J.Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change.Nature,2013,504(7478):79-83.
[30]Webb E L,Friess D A,Krauss K W,Cahoon D R,Guntenspergen G R,Phelps J.A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(5):458-465.
[31]Osland M J,Enwright N,Day R H,Doyle T W.Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species:salt marshes vs.mangrove forests in the southeastern United States.Global Change Biology,2013,19(5):1482-1494.
[32]Garris H W,Mitchell R J,Fraser L H,Barrett L R.Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states.Global Change Biology,2015,21(2):766-776.
[33]Cahoon D R.Estimating relative sea-level rise and submergence potential at a coastal wetland.Estuaries and Coasts,2015,38(3):1077-1084.
[34]Nuse B L,Cooper R J,Hunter E A.Prospects for predicting changes to coastal wetland bird populations due to accelerated sea level rise.Ecosphere,2015,6(12):1-23.
[35]Spencer T,Schuerch M,Nicholls R J,Hinkel J,Lincke D,Vafeidis A T,Reef R,Mc Fadden L,Brown S.Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses:the DIVA wetland change model.Global and Planetary Change,2016,139:15-30.
[36]Guo W Y,Lambertini C,Li X Z,Meyerson L A,Brix H.Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World:precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche.Global Change Biology,2013,19(11):3406-3422.
[37]Lishawa S C,Lawrence B A,Albert D A,Tuchman N C.Biomass harvest of invasive Typha promotes plant diversity in a Great Lakes coastal wetland.Restoration Ecology,2015,23(3):228-237.
[38]Kirwan M L,Mudd S M.Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.Nature,2012,489(7417):550-553.
[39]Gatland J R,Santos I R,Maher D T,Duncan T M,Erler D V.Carbon dioxide and methane emissions from an artificially drained coastal wetland during a flood:Implications for wetland global warming potential.Journal of Geophysical Research:Biogeosciences,2014,119(8):1698-1716.
[40]Grafton R Q,Pittock J,Davis R,Williams J,Fu G B,Warburton M,Udall B,Mc Kenzie R,Yu X B,Che N,Connell D,Jiang Q,Kompas T,Lynch A,Norris R,Possingham H,Quiggin J.Global insights into water resources,climate change and governance.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(4):315-321.
[41]Hulme P E.Adapting to climate change:is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat?Journal of Applied Ecology,2005,42(5):784-794.
[42]Bridgham S D,Cadillo-Quiroz H,Keller J K,Zhuang Q L.Methane emissions from wetlands:biogeochemical,microbial,and modeling perspectives from local to global scales.Global Change Biology,2013,19(5):1325-1346.
[43]Mitsch W J,Bernal B,Nahlik A M,Mander,Zhang L,Anderson C J,Jrgensen S E,Brix H.Wetlands,carbon,and climate change.Landscape Ecology,2013,28(4):583-597.
[44]Erwin K L.Wetlands and global climate change:the role of wetland restoration in a changing world.Wetlands Ecology and Management,2009,17(1):71-84.
[45]Cormier N,Krauss K W,Conner W H.Periodicity in stem growth and litterfall in tidal freshwater forested wetlands:influence of salinity and drought on nitrogen recycling.Estuaries and Coasts,2013,36(3):533-546.
[46]Wassens S,Walcott A,Wilson A,Freire R.Frog breeding in rain-fed wetlands after a period of severe drought:implications for predicting the impacts of climate change.Hydrobiologia,2013,708(1):69-80.
[47]Diez J M,D'Antonio C M,Dukes J S,Grosholz E D,Olden J D,Sorte C J B,Blumenthal D M,Bradley B A,Early R,Ibáez I,Jones S J,Lawler J J,Miller L P.Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2012,10(5):249-257.
[48]Burkett V,Kusler J.Climate change:potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States.Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2000,36(2):313-320.
[49]Morris J T,Sundareshwar P V,Nietch C T,Kjerfve B,Cahoon D R.Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level.Ecology,2002,83(10):2869-2877.
[50]Chambers R M,Odum W E.Porewater oxidation,dissolved phosphate and the iron curtain:iron-phosphorus relations in tidal freshwater marshes.Biogeochemistry,1990,10(1):37-52.
[51]Lamers L P M,Dolle G E T,Van Den Berg S T G,Van Delft S P J,Roelofs J G M.Differential responses of freshwater wetland soils to sulphate pollution.Biogeochemistry,2001,55(1):87-101.
[52]Caraco N F,Cole J J,Likens G E.Evidence for sulphate-controlled phosphorus release from sediments of aquatic systems.Nature,1989,341(6240):316-318.
[53]Rysgaard S,Thastum P,Dalsgaard T,Christensen P B,Sloth N P.Effects of salinity on NH+4adsorption capacity,nitrification,and denitrification in Danish estuarine sediments.Estuaries,1999,22(1):21-30.
[54]Bu N S,Qu J F,Zhao H,Yan Q W,Zhao B,Fan J L,Fang C M,Li G.Effects of semi-lunar tidal cycling on soil CO2and CH4emissions:a case study in the Yangtze River estuary,China.Wetlands Ecology and Management,2015,23(4):727-736.
[55]IPCC.Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis:Summary for Policymakers.(2014-01-29)[2016-11-20].http://www.climatechange 2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf
[56]陈少勇,王劲松,郭俊庭,芦旭东.中国西北地区1961—2009年极端高温事件的演变特征.自然资源学报,2012,27(5):832-844.
[57]王艳姣,任福民,闫峰.中国区域持续性高温事件时空变化特征研究.地理科学,2013,33(3):314-321.
[58]李娇,任国玉,任玉玉,沈志超,孙秀宝.辽宁地区夏季高温极值预测模型.气象与环境学报,2012,28(6):50—57.
[59]史军,丁一汇,崔林丽.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析.大气科学,2009,33(2):347-358.
[60]郑祚芳.北京极端气温变化特征及其对城市化的响应.地理科学,2011,31(4):459-463.
[61]杨萍,肖子牛,刘伟东.北京气温日变化特征的城郊差异及其季节变化分析.大气科学,2013,37(1):101-112.
[62]Kürbis K,Mudelsee M,Tetzlaff G,Brázdil R.Trends in extremes of temperature,dew point,and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe.Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2009,98(1-2):187-195.
[63]陈正洪,史瑞琴,陈波.季节变化对全球气候变化的响应——以湖北省为例.地理科学,2009,29(6):911-916.
[64]Panday P K,Thibeault J,Frey K E.Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region:an analysis of CMIP3and CMIP5 simulations and projections.International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(10):3058-3077.
[65]李庆祥,黄嘉佑.环渤海地区城市化对夏季极端暖夜的影响.气象学报,2013,71(4):668-676.
[66]Schlünzen K H,Hoffmann P,Rosenhagen G,Riecke W.Long-term changes and regional differences in temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan area of Hamburg.International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(8):1121-1136.
[67]Dettinger M D,Ghil M,Keppenne C L.Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures,1910-87.Climatic Change,1995,31(1):35-66.
[68]赵昕奕,张惠远,万军.青藏高原气候变化对气候带的影响.地理科学,2002,22(2):190-195.
[69]黄亮,高苹,谢小萍,谢志清,于庚康.全球增暖背景下中国干湿气候带变化规律研究.气象科学,2013,33(5):570-576.
[70]White C J,Mc Innes K L,Cechet R P,Corney S P,Grose M R,Holz G K,Katzfey J J,Bindoff N L.On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment and projection of temperature and precipitation extremes across Tasmania,Australia.Climate dynamics,2013,41(11-12):3145-3165.
[71]邓振镛,张强,尹宪志,孙存杰,辛吉武,刘德祥,蒲金涌,董安祥.干旱灾害对干旱气候变化的响应.冰川冻土,2007,29(1):114-118.
[72]Kovats R S,Hajat S.Heat stress and public health:a critical review.Annual Review of Public Health,2008,29:41-55.
[73]王敏珍,郑山,王式功,尚可政.高温热浪对人类健康影响的研究进展.环境与健康杂志,2012,29(7):662-664.
[74]韦惠兰,欧阳青虎.气候变化对中国半干旱区农民生计影响初探——以甘肃省半干旱区为例.干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):117-121.
[75]Jones P G,Thornton P K.Croppers to livestock keepers:livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change.Environmental Science&Policy,2009,12(4):427-437.
[76]Schilling J,Freier K P,Hertig E,Scheffran J.Climate change,vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco.Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2012,156:12-26.
[77]李克让,曹明奎,於琍,吴绍洪.中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估.地理研究,2005,24(5):653-663.
[78]欧阳志云,王效科,苗鸿.中国陆地生态系统服务功能及其生态经济价值的初步研究.生态学报,1999,19(5):607-613.
[79]孟雪松,欧阳志云,崔国发,李伟峰,郑华.北京城市生态系统植物种类构成及其分布特征.生态学报,2004,24(10):2200-2206.
[80]孙昌龙,靳诺,张小雷,杜宏茹.城市化不同演化阶段对碳排放的影响差异.地理科学,2013,33(3):266-272.
[81]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004.中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):158-161.
[82]杨凯,叶茂,徐启新.上海城市废弃物增长的环境库兹涅茨特征研究.地理研究,2003,22(1):60-66.
[83]虞依娜,陈丽丽.中国环境库兹涅茨曲线研究进展.生态环境学报,2012,21(12):2018-2023.
[84]Liu Z,Guan D B,Crawford-Brown D,Zhang Q,He K B,Liu J G.Energy policy:A low-carbon road map for China.Nature,2013,500(7461):143-145.
[85]张雷.中国一次能源消费的碳排放区域格局变化.地理研究,2006,25(1):1-9.
[86]祁悦,谢高地.碳排放空间分配及其对中国区域功能的影响.资源科学,2009,31(4):590-597.
[87]朱永彬,王铮,庞丽,王丽娟,邹秀萍.基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测.地理学报,2009,64(8):935-944.
[88]张馨,牛叔文,赵春升,胡莉莉.中国城市化进程中的居民家庭能源消费及碳排放研究.中国软科学,2011,(9):65-75.
[89]Halicioglu F.An econometric study of CO2emissions,energy consumption,income and foreign trade in Turkey.Energy Policy,2009,37(3):1156-1164.
[90]赵荣钦,黄贤金,徐慧,高珊.城市系统碳循环与碳管理研究进展.自然资源学报,2009,24(10):1847-1859
[91]刘纪远,邵全琴,延晓冬,樊江文,邓祥征,战金艳,高学杰,黄麟,徐新良,胡云峰,王军邦,匡文慧.土地利用变化对全球气候影响的研究进展与方法初探.地球科学进展,2011,26(10):1015-1022.
[92]郑海金,华珞,欧立业.中国土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究综述.首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,24(3):89-95.
[93]杜习乐,吕昌河,王海荣.土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)的环境效应研究进展.土壤,2011,43(3):350-360.
[94]Jordan T E,Weller D E,Correll D L.Sources of nutrient inputs to the Patuxent River estuary.Estuaries,2003,26(2):226-243.
[95]Groffman P M,Law N L,Belt K T,Band L E,Fisher G T.Nitrogen fluxes and retention in urban watershed ecosystems.Ecosystems,2004,7(4):393-403.
[96]王淑兰,张远航,钟流举,李金龙,于群.珠江三角洲城市间空气污染的相互影响.中国环境科学,2005,25(2):133-137.
[97]许珊,邹滨,蒲强,郭宇.土地利用/覆盖的空气污染效应分析.地球信息科学学报,2015,17(3):290-299.
[98]夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战.资源科学,2002,24(3):1-7.
[99]赵文武,傅伯杰,陈利顶,吕一河,刘永琴.黄土丘陵沟壑区集水区尺度土地利用格局变化的水土流失效应.生态学报,2004,24(7):1358-1364.
[100]吴建国,吕佳佳.土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响.生态环境学报,2008,17(3):1276-1281.
[101]陈广生,田汉勤.土地利用/覆盖变化对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响.植物生态学报,2007,31(2):189-204.
[102]郑大玮,潘志华.适应气候变化的意义.中国西部科技,2015,14(4):40-41.
[103]Rael R C,Costantino R F,Cushing J M,Vincent T L.Using stage-structured evolutionary game theory to model the experimentally observed evolution of a genetic polymorphism.Evolutionary Ecology Research,2009,11:141-151.
[104]Bose P S.Vulnerabilities and displacements:adaptation and mitigation to climate change as a new development mantra.Area,2016,48(2):168-175.
[105]Edenhofer O,Seyboth K.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)//Shogren J,ed.Encyclopedia of Energy,Natural Resource,and Environmental Economics.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2013,1:48-56.
[106]陈宜瑜.对开展全球环境变化区域适应研究的几点看法.地球科学进展,2004,19(4):495-499.
[107]Ivey J L,Smithers J,de LoR C,Kreutzwiser R D.Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages:linking institutional complexity and local actors.Environmental Management,2004,33(1):36-47.
[108]Adger W N.Social capital,collective action,and adaptation to climate change.Economic Geography,2003,79(4):387–404.
[109]Adger W N,Dessai S,Goulden M,Hulme M,Lorenzoni I,Nelson D R,Naess L O,Wolf J,Wreford A.Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?Climatic Change,2009,93(3-4):335-354.
[110]Pike A,Dawley S,Tomaney J.Resilience,adaptation and adaptability.Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2010,3(1):59-70.
[111]Ndamani F,Watanabe T.Determinants of farmers'adaptation to climate change:a micro level analysis in Ghana.Scientia Agricola,2016,73(3):201-208.
[112]Kato T,Ellis J.Communicating Progress in National and Global Adaptation to Climate Change.OECD/IEA Climate Change Expert Group Papers,2016.
[113]Adger W N,Arnell N W,Tompkins E L.Successful adaptation to climate change across scales.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(2):77-86.
[114]Mertz O,Halsns K,Olesen J E,Rasmussen K.Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries.Environmental Management,2009,43(5):743-752.
[115]O'Brien K,Eriksen S,Schjolden A,Nygaard L P.What's in a Word?Conflicting Interpretations of Vulnerability in Climate Change Research.Climate Policy,2004,7-7.
[116]Kloeckner C A.Towards a Psychology of Climate Change//Filho W L,ed.The Economic,Social and Political Elements of Climate Change.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2011:153-173.
[117]Rindfuss R R,Walsh S J,Turner B L,Fox J,Mishra V.Developing a science of land change:challenges and methodological issues.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2004,101(39):13976-13981.
[118]Fu R,Pu L,Qian M,Zhu M.Multi-agent system in land-use change modeling//Tian H H,Zhou M,eds.Advances in Information Technology and Education.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2011:288-295.
[119]Bryant C R,Sarr M A,Délusca K.Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change.Switzerland:Springer International Publishing,2016.
[120]Eakin H,Lemos M C.Adaptation and the state:Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization.Global Environmental Change,2006,16(1):7-18.
[121]Plummer R,Armitage D.Integrating perspectives on adaptive capacity and environmental governance//Armitage D,Plummer R,eds.Adaptive Capacity and Environmental Governance.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2010:1-19.
[122]王如松.转型期城市生态学前沿研究进展.生态学报,2000,20(5):830-840.
[123]Mccarthy J J,Canziani O F,Leary N A,Dokken D J,White K S.Climate Change 2001:Impacts,Adaptation,and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001:81-111.
[124]Grimm N B,Faeth S H,Golubiewski N E,Redman C L,Wu J G,Bai X M,Briggs J M.Global change and the ecology of cities.Science,2008,319(5864):756-760.
[125]Simonovic S P.Adaptation to climate change:risk management//Elpida K,Oishi S,Teegavarapu R S V,eds.Sustainable Water Resources Planning and Management Under Climate Change.Singapore:Springer,2017.