2017年全球矿业形势分析与未来展望
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摘要
2017年,受全球经济回暖影响,矿产品需求温和增长,全球矿业延续了向好势头,金属价格稳步回升,融资困难进一步缓解,投资者信心重新回归。展望未来,中国发展进入新时代将为全球矿业增添新引擎,"一带一路"倡议的顺利推进将重构全球矿业新格局,世界范围对环境保护的关注将重构全球矿业管理新秩序,科技创新将为全球矿业发展带来新动力。全球矿业在经历了2003~2015年超级周期之后,进入了一个新的发展阶段,新的发展阶段不同于以往的供求关系起主要作用的"矿业周期论",在智能绿色、科技进步、合作共赢等诸多因素的叠加影响下,新的矿业发展阶段将完成全球矿业的重要转型升级。
In 2017,due to the global economic rebound,the demand for metals increased moderately.The global mining industry continued its good momentum.The prices of metals rose steadily.The financing difficulties were further alleviated and the confidence of investors returned to normal.Looking into the future,China's development will add new engines to the global mining industry in the new era.The smooth progress of"Belt and Road"will rebuild a new pattern of global mining industry.Concerning over the environmental protection worldwide will rebuild a new global order for mining management.The technological innovation will bring new impetus to the development of the global mining industry.Therefore,we believe that the global mining industry has entered a new stage of development after experiencing the supercycle of 2003~2015.The new development stage is different from the previous"mining cycle theory"that the relationship of supply and demand plays a major role.Under the influence of many factors such as smart mining,environmental protection,technological progress and win-win cooperation,the new stage will complete the important transformation and upgrade.
In 2017,due to the global economic rebound,the demand for metals increased moderately.The global mining industry continued its good momentum.The prices of metals rose steadily.The financing difficulties were further alleviated and the confidence of investors returned to normal.Looking into the future,China's development will add new engines to the global mining industry in the new era.The smooth progress of"Belt and Road"will rebuild a new pattern of global mining industry.Concerning over the environmental protection worldwide will rebuild a new global order for mining management.The technological innovation will bring new impetus to the development of the global mining industry.Therefore,we believe that the global mining industry has entered a new stage of development after experiencing the supercycle of 2003~2015.The new development stage is different from the previous"mining cycle theory"that the relationship of supply and demand plays a major role.Under the influence of many factors such as smart mining,environmental protection,technological progress and win-win cooperation,the new stage will complete the important transformation and upgrade.
引文
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[2]中国物流与采购联合会科技信息部.12月份PMI显示:指数略有回落,经济运行基本平稳[EB/OL].(2017-12-31)[2018-01-01].http:∥www.chinawuliu.com.cn/zhuanti/201712/31/327521.shtml.
[3]S&P Global Market Intelligence.Quarterly Industry Monitor:September Quarter 2017.Exploration sector revival stabilizing[EB/OL].(2017-11)[2018-01-01].https:∥www.snl.com/.
[4]S&P Global Market Intelligence.Overview of Exploration Trends:2017 Corporate Exploration Strategies[EB/OL].(2017-10)[2018-01-01].https:∥www.snl.com/.
[5]United States Geological Survey.Mineral Commodity Summaries 2017[EB/OL].(2017-01-19)[2018-01-01].https:∥minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2017/mcs2017.pdf.
[6]国土资源部信息中心.世界矿产资源年评(2016)[M].北京:地质出版社,2016.
[7]World Bureau of Metal Statistics.World Metal Statistics Yearbook[R].2016.
[8]周平,杨宗喜,郑人瑞,等.全球矿业或将开启新的周期[J].国土资源情报,2017(11):43-47.
[9]McKinsey Global Institute.Beyond The Supercycle:How Technology Is Reshaping Resources[EB/OL].(2017-02)[2018-01-01].https:∥www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Sustainability%20and%20Resource%20Productivity/Our%20Insights/How%20technology%20is%20reshaping%20supply%20and%20demand%20for%20natural%20resources/MGI-Beyondthe-Supercycle-Full-report.ashx.