空气污染、环境规制与工业发展——来自二氧化硫排放的证据
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摘要
基于2008～2016年省际数据,运用Bootstrap-DEA方法,在考虑能源消耗和污染物排放等非意欲产出的情况下,核算我国30个省(市、区)的工业环境全要素效率,并在此基础上运用灰色关联分析法测算各省(市、区)大气污染影响因素的灰色关联度。结果表明:样本期间内,我国工业环境全要素生产效率整体呈上升趋势,粗放式发展带来的负向外部效应逐渐得到扭转,产业转型升级对环保的正面作用逐步显现;载货汽车保有量和环境规制对空气质量的影响较大;汽车保有量、环境规制和工业发展对空气质量的影响具有较强的省份异质性。
This paper adopts Bootstrap-DEA method to calculate industrial environmental total factor efficiency of 30 provinces in China with the consideration of energy consumption, discharge of pollutants and other undesirable outputs. Then, grey relational analysis is used to calculate the grey correlation degree of air pollution with its influencing factors in 30 provinces. Results shows that IETFE in China presents an upward trend generally during sample period, the negative external effects of extensive development gradually reverse and the positive effects of industrial transformation and upgrading on environmental protection gradually appear. The freight cars and environmental regulations have a great impact on air quality. Meanwhile, effects of cars, environmental regulation and industrial development on air quality are of provincial heterogeneity.
This paper adopts Bootstrap-DEA method to calculate industrial environmental total factor efficiency of 30 provinces in China with the consideration of energy consumption, discharge of pollutants and other undesirable outputs. Then, grey relational analysis is used to calculate the grey correlation degree of air pollution with its influencing factors in 30 provinces. Results shows that IETFE in China presents an upward trend generally during sample period, the negative external effects of extensive development gradually reverse and the positive effects of industrial transformation and upgrading on environmental protection gradually appear. The freight cars and environmental regulations have a great impact on air quality. Meanwhile, effects of cars, environmental regulation and industrial development on air quality are of provincial heterogeneity.
引文
[1] Zhang X, Chen X, Zhang X. The Impact of Exposure to Air Pollution on Cognitive Performance[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018, 115(37): 9193-9197.
[2] Popp D. Pollution Control Innovations and the Clean Air Act of 1990[J]. Journal of Policy Analysis & Management, 2010, 22(4):641-660.
[3] Johnstone N,Hascic I,Popp D. Renewable Energy Policies and Technological Innovation: Evidence Based on Patent Counts[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2010,45(1): 55-133.
[4] Keller W, Levinson A. Pollution Abatement Costs and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to U.S. States[J]. Review of Economics & Statistics, 2002, 84(4):691-703.
[5] Elliott, Robert J R, Zhou, et al. Environmental Regulation Induced Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Environmental & Resource Economics, 2013, 55(1):141-158.
[6] 余伟,陈强.“波特假说”20年——环境规制与创新、竞争力研究述评[J].科研管理,2015,36(5):65-71.
[7] 徐敏燕,左和平.集聚效应下环境规制与产业竞争力关系研究——基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国工业经济,2013(3):72-84.
[8] 沈能,刘凤朝.高强度的环境规制真能促进技术创新吗?——基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2012(4):49-59.
[9] 王杰,刘斌.环境规制与企业全要素生产率——基于中国工业企业数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(3):44-56.
[10] 魏楚,黄磊,沈满洪.鱼与熊掌可兼得么?——对我国环境管制波特假说的检验[J].世界经济文汇,2015(1):80-98.
[11] 吴玉鸣.外商直接投资与环境规制关联机制的面板数据分析[J].经济地理,2007,27(1):11-14.
[12] 曾贤刚.环境规制、外商直接投资与"污染避难所"假说——基于中国30个省份面板数据的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2010(11):65-71.
[13] 林季红,刘莹.内生的环境规制:“污染天堂假说”在中国的再检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):13-18.
[14] 张友国.碳排放视角下的区域间贸易模式:污染避难所与要素禀赋[J].中国工业经济,2015(8):5-19.
[15] 王艳丽,钟奥.地方政府竞争、环境规制与高耗能产业转移——基于“逐底竞争”和“污染避难所”假说的联合检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2016,38(8):46-54.
[16] Simar L, Wilson P W. Sensitivity Analysis of Efficiency Scores: How to Bootstrap in Nonparametric Frontier Models[J]. Management Science, 1998, 44(1):49-61.
[17] 邹玮,孙才志,覃雄合.基于Bootstrap-DEA模型环渤海地区海洋经济效率空间演化与影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):859-867.
[18] 刘巍, 宫舒文. 基于Bootstrap-DEA区域高校科研效率测算及差异分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2018(1):100-102.
[19] 王曦, 梁玮佳. 政府卫生支出效率及其影响因素的再检验——基于Bootstrap-DEA和窗口DEA分析[J]. 金融学季刊, 2018(2).
[20] Liu F, Wang Y L, School B, et al. Research on Efficiency Measurement of China's High and Equipment Manufacturing Enterprise Based on Meta-Frontier-Bootstrap-DEA Method[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2017.
[21] 邓聚龙.灰色系统[M].国防工业出版社,1985.
[22] 彭继增,孙中美,黄昕.基于灰色关联理论的产业结构与经济协同发展的实证分析——以江西省为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(8):123-128.
[23] Morris J. International Trade and the Environment[J]. Econmic Affairs,2010,16(5):4-7
[24] 王兵,吴延瑞,颜鹏飞.中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长[J].经济研究,2010(5):95-109.
[25] Lanoie P, Patry M, Lajeunesse R. Environmental Regulation and Productivity: Testing the Porter Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2008, 30(2):121-128.
[26] 王书斌,徐盈之.环境规制与雾霾脱钩效应——基于企业投资偏好的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(4):18-30.
[27] 庞瑞芝,王亮,服务业发展是绿色的吗?——基于服务业环境全要素效率分析[J].产业经济研究,2016(4):18-28.
①http://www.zhb.gov.cn/xxgk/hjyw/201701/t20170123_395142.shtml。
②本文根据各省份空气污染物排放量绘制了图形,更直观地体现这一现状,限于篇幅,文中未展示。
①由于西藏自治区的数据缺失,故没有计算西藏自治区的工业环境全要素效率。
①经过整理后,用于测算的数据共有7个序列,每一序列均有270(30×9=270)个数据点。测算灰色关联度时,对数据进行剔除1%的处理,以排除异常值的影响。
②限于篇幅,本文未展示结果表格,感兴趣的读者可以索取。
③限于篇幅,本文未列出稳健性检验结果,相关表格留存备索。
[2] Popp D. Pollution Control Innovations and the Clean Air Act of 1990[J]. Journal of Policy Analysis & Management, 2010, 22(4):641-660.
[3] Johnstone N,Hascic I,Popp D. Renewable Energy Policies and Technological Innovation: Evidence Based on Patent Counts[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2010,45(1): 55-133.
[4] Keller W, Levinson A. Pollution Abatement Costs and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to U.S. States[J]. Review of Economics & Statistics, 2002, 84(4):691-703.
[5] Elliott, Robert J R, Zhou, et al. Environmental Regulation Induced Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Environmental & Resource Economics, 2013, 55(1):141-158.
[6] 余伟,陈强.“波特假说”20年——环境规制与创新、竞争力研究述评[J].科研管理,2015,36(5):65-71.
[7] 徐敏燕,左和平.集聚效应下环境规制与产业竞争力关系研究——基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国工业经济,2013(3):72-84.
[8] 沈能,刘凤朝.高强度的环境规制真能促进技术创新吗?——基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].中国软科学,2012(4):49-59.
[9] 王杰,刘斌.环境规制与企业全要素生产率——基于中国工业企业数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(3):44-56.
[10] 魏楚,黄磊,沈满洪.鱼与熊掌可兼得么?——对我国环境管制波特假说的检验[J].世界经济文汇,2015(1):80-98.
[11] 吴玉鸣.外商直接投资与环境规制关联机制的面板数据分析[J].经济地理,2007,27(1):11-14.
[12] 曾贤刚.环境规制、外商直接投资与"污染避难所"假说——基于中国30个省份面板数据的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2010(11):65-71.
[13] 林季红,刘莹.内生的环境规制:“污染天堂假说”在中国的再检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(1):13-18.
[14] 张友国.碳排放视角下的区域间贸易模式:污染避难所与要素禀赋[J].中国工业经济,2015(8):5-19.
[15] 王艳丽,钟奥.地方政府竞争、环境规制与高耗能产业转移——基于“逐底竞争”和“污染避难所”假说的联合检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2016,38(8):46-54.
[16] Simar L, Wilson P W. Sensitivity Analysis of Efficiency Scores: How to Bootstrap in Nonparametric Frontier Models[J]. Management Science, 1998, 44(1):49-61.
[17] 邹玮,孙才志,覃雄合.基于Bootstrap-DEA模型环渤海地区海洋经济效率空间演化与影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):859-867.
[18] 刘巍, 宫舒文. 基于Bootstrap-DEA区域高校科研效率测算及差异分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2018(1):100-102.
[19] 王曦, 梁玮佳. 政府卫生支出效率及其影响因素的再检验——基于Bootstrap-DEA和窗口DEA分析[J]. 金融学季刊, 2018(2).
[20] Liu F, Wang Y L, School B, et al. Research on Efficiency Measurement of China's High and Equipment Manufacturing Enterprise Based on Meta-Frontier-Bootstrap-DEA Method[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2017.
[21] 邓聚龙.灰色系统[M].国防工业出版社,1985.
[22] 彭继增,孙中美,黄昕.基于灰色关联理论的产业结构与经济协同发展的实证分析——以江西省为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(8):123-128.
[23] Morris J. International Trade and the Environment[J]. Econmic Affairs,2010,16(5):4-7
[24] 王兵,吴延瑞,颜鹏飞.中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长[J].经济研究,2010(5):95-109.
[25] Lanoie P, Patry M, Lajeunesse R. Environmental Regulation and Productivity: Testing the Porter Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2008, 30(2):121-128.
[26] 王书斌,徐盈之.环境规制与雾霾脱钩效应——基于企业投资偏好的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(4):18-30.
[27] 庞瑞芝,王亮,服务业发展是绿色的吗?——基于服务业环境全要素效率分析[J].产业经济研究,2016(4):18-28.
①http://www.zhb.gov.cn/xxgk/hjyw/201701/t20170123_395142.shtml。
②本文根据各省份空气污染物排放量绘制了图形,更直观地体现这一现状,限于篇幅,文中未展示。
①由于西藏自治区的数据缺失,故没有计算西藏自治区的工业环境全要素效率。
①经过整理后,用于测算的数据共有7个序列,每一序列均有270(30×9=270)个数据点。测算灰色关联度时,对数据进行剔除1%的处理,以排除异常值的影响。
②限于篇幅,本文未展示结果表格,感兴趣的读者可以索取。
③限于篇幅,本文未列出稳健性检验结果,相关表格留存备索。