中国空气质量对公众健康的影响——基于与G20国家整体的比较
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摘要
为了检验空气污染对于公众健康的影响程度及其影响机制,本文聚焦于2002—2012年期间G20国家环境空气质量对于公众健康的影响。首先,以人口平均预期寿命作为主要健康指标,衡量PM2.5浓度对人口平均预期寿命的影响程度,发现空气质量对人口平均预期寿命存在一定的负面影响;其次,为了深入探究空气质量对于公众健康水平的影响机制,将肺癌死亡率作为主要的健康指标,检验空气质量恶化对肺癌死亡率增加的促进作用,进而验证出空气质量通过增加肺癌死亡率的路径来减缓人口平均预期寿命的增长;最后,将中国从G20国家的样本中抽取出来做个案分析,并与G20整体的数据形成对比,观察其与G20国家整体变化趋势的匹配程度。
This paper focuses on the ambient air quality's impact on public health in G20 during2002—2012 to examine the effects of air pollution on public health and its mechanism. Firstly,take population life expectancy at birth as an indicator to measure public health,the correlation between PM2. 5 concentration and life expectancy,confirm the effects of ambient air quality on public health. Secondly,in order to delve into the influence mechanism between air quality and public health,namely how the air quality slow down the growth pace of life expectancy,this paper takes lung cancer mortality as the major indicator to judge how the air quality deterioration accelerate lung cancer mortality increasing,hence verify that air quality can slow down the growth pace of life expectancy by increasing lung cancer mortality. Finally,extract the sample of China from G20,as an independent case,and contrast with the data of the G20,to observe the fitness between the data of China and the overall trend of G20.
This paper focuses on the ambient air quality's impact on public health in G20 during2002—2012 to examine the effects of air pollution on public health and its mechanism. Firstly,take population life expectancy at birth as an indicator to measure public health,the correlation between PM2. 5 concentration and life expectancy,confirm the effects of ambient air quality on public health. Secondly,in order to delve into the influence mechanism between air quality and public health,namely how the air quality slow down the growth pace of life expectancy,this paper takes lung cancer mortality as the major indicator to judge how the air quality deterioration accelerate lung cancer mortality increasing,hence verify that air quality can slow down the growth pace of life expectancy by increasing lung cancer mortality. Finally,extract the sample of China from G20,as an independent case,and contrast with the data of the G20,to observe the fitness between the data of China and the overall trend of G20.
引文
[1]YANG G,WANG Y,ZENG Y,et al.Rapid health transition in China,1990—2010:findings from the global burden of disease study2010[J].The Lancet,2013,381(9882):1987-2015.
[2]EBENSTEIN A,FAN M,GREENSTONE M,HE G,YIN P,ZHOU M.Growth,pollution,and life expectancy:China from 1991—2012[J].American Economic Review,2015,105(5),226-231.
[3]孙秀艳.污染影响健康,如何防范风险[N].人民日报,2014-11-15(09).
[4]吴新悦,张城敏,葛秀平,凌颖,李海英,康万里.北京市1272例原发性肺癌生存时间及影响因素调查分析[J].北京医学,2009(1):20-23.
[5]ZHANG X,ZHANG X,CHEN X.Happiness in the air:how does a dirty sky affect subjective well-being?[R].IZA Discussion Papers,No.9312,2015.
[6]WANG G Z,CHENG X,ZHOU B,et al.The chemokine CXCL13 in lung cancers associated with environmental polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons pollution[R].e Life,e09419,2015.
[7]GROSS E.Plus can change...?the sexual structure of occupations over time[J].Social Problems,1968,16(2):198-208.
[8]陆益龙.水环境问题、环保态度与居民的行动策略——2010CGSS数据的分析[J].山东社会科学,2015(1):70-76.
[9]SILBIGER S,NEUGARTEN J.Gender and human chronic renal disease[J].Gender Medicine,2008,5(S1):S3-S10.
[10]NG M,FREEMAN M K,FLEMING T D,et al.Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries,1980—2012[J].JAMA,2014,311(2):183-192.
[11]VAN LIERE K D,DUNLAP R E.The social bases of environmental concern:a review of hypotheses,explanations and empirical evidence[J].Public Opinion Quarterly,1980,44(2):181-197.
[12]范叶超,洪大用.差别暴露、差别职业和差别体验——中国城乡居民环境关心差异的实证分析[J].社会,2015(3):141-167.
[13]LELIEVELD J,EVANS J S,FNAIS M,GIANNADAKI D,POZZER A.The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale[J].Nature,2015,525(7569):367-371.
[14]方敏.国家应该花多少钱用于健康?——卫生投入与健康结果的文献评估[J].公共行政评论,2015(1):164-187.
[15]世界卫生组织.2014年全球非传染疾病现状报告[R],2015.
[16]陈万青,张思维,邹小农.中国肺癌发病死亡的估计和流行趋势研究[J].中国肺癌杂志,2010(5):488-493.
[17]魏文.2020年中国肺癌发病人数将突破80万[N].工人日报,2015-12-13(03).
[18]CHEN Z,PETO R,ZHOU M,IONA A,SMITH M,et al.Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China:evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies[J].The Lancet,2015,386(10002):1447-1456.
[19]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W.Increasing impact of urban fine particles(PM2.5)on areas surrounding Chinese cities[J].Scientific Reports,2015,5:1-6.
[20]BAUGARTNER J,ZHANG Y,SCHAUER J J,HUANG W,WANG Y,EZZATI M.Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(36):13229-13234.
(1)WHO下属的国际癌症研究中心对致癌物质进行了归类:一类致癌物质,指有足够证据证明其致癌性的物质,如酒精、甲醛、二口恶英、芥子气、中子辐射、镭等放射性元素、石棉、黄曲霉素及PM2.5为代表的大气污染物等。二类致癌物质,指有一定证据证明实验动物致癌性,但有限证据支持其存在人体致癌性的物质,如铅及其化合物、多氯联苯和滴滴涕、萘、硝基苯等。三类致癌物质,指缺乏足够证据证明其人体致癌性和实验动物致癌性,但存在足够理论支持其具备致癌性的物质,如苯胺、邻苯二甲酸酯增塑剂、苏丹红等。
(1)职业性别隔离,是指男女因性别不同而被分配、集中到不同的职业和工作中,职业性别隔离的程度越高,表明男女在不同职业类型中的分布愈加不均衡,收入和许多非经济资源的分布愈加不平等。
(2)伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life year,DALY)是指从发病到死亡所损失的全部健康生命年,包括因早死所致的生命损失年(YLL)和疾病所致伤残引起的健康生命损失年(YLD)两部分。DALY是生命数量和生命质量以时间为单位的综合度量。
[2]EBENSTEIN A,FAN M,GREENSTONE M,HE G,YIN P,ZHOU M.Growth,pollution,and life expectancy:China from 1991—2012[J].American Economic Review,2015,105(5),226-231.
[3]孙秀艳.污染影响健康,如何防范风险[N].人民日报,2014-11-15(09).
[4]吴新悦,张城敏,葛秀平,凌颖,李海英,康万里.北京市1272例原发性肺癌生存时间及影响因素调查分析[J].北京医学,2009(1):20-23.
[5]ZHANG X,ZHANG X,CHEN X.Happiness in the air:how does a dirty sky affect subjective well-being?[R].IZA Discussion Papers,No.9312,2015.
[6]WANG G Z,CHENG X,ZHOU B,et al.The chemokine CXCL13 in lung cancers associated with environmental polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons pollution[R].e Life,e09419,2015.
[7]GROSS E.Plus can change...?the sexual structure of occupations over time[J].Social Problems,1968,16(2):198-208.
[8]陆益龙.水环境问题、环保态度与居民的行动策略——2010CGSS数据的分析[J].山东社会科学,2015(1):70-76.
[9]SILBIGER S,NEUGARTEN J.Gender and human chronic renal disease[J].Gender Medicine,2008,5(S1):S3-S10.
[10]NG M,FREEMAN M K,FLEMING T D,et al.Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries,1980—2012[J].JAMA,2014,311(2):183-192.
[11]VAN LIERE K D,DUNLAP R E.The social bases of environmental concern:a review of hypotheses,explanations and empirical evidence[J].Public Opinion Quarterly,1980,44(2):181-197.
[12]范叶超,洪大用.差别暴露、差别职业和差别体验——中国城乡居民环境关心差异的实证分析[J].社会,2015(3):141-167.
[13]LELIEVELD J,EVANS J S,FNAIS M,GIANNADAKI D,POZZER A.The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale[J].Nature,2015,525(7569):367-371.
[14]方敏.国家应该花多少钱用于健康?——卫生投入与健康结果的文献评估[J].公共行政评论,2015(1):164-187.
[15]世界卫生组织.2014年全球非传染疾病现状报告[R],2015.
[16]陈万青,张思维,邹小农.中国肺癌发病死亡的估计和流行趋势研究[J].中国肺癌杂志,2010(5):488-493.
[17]魏文.2020年中国肺癌发病人数将突破80万[N].工人日报,2015-12-13(03).
[18]CHEN Z,PETO R,ZHOU M,IONA A,SMITH M,et al.Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China:evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies[J].The Lancet,2015,386(10002):1447-1456.
[19]HAN L,ZHOU W,LI W.Increasing impact of urban fine particles(PM2.5)on areas surrounding Chinese cities[J].Scientific Reports,2015,5:1-6.
[20]BAUGARTNER J,ZHANG Y,SCHAUER J J,HUANG W,WANG Y,EZZATI M.Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2014,111(36):13229-13234.
(1)WHO下属的国际癌症研究中心对致癌物质进行了归类:一类致癌物质,指有足够证据证明其致癌性的物质,如酒精、甲醛、二口恶英、芥子气、中子辐射、镭等放射性元素、石棉、黄曲霉素及PM2.5为代表的大气污染物等。二类致癌物质,指有一定证据证明实验动物致癌性,但有限证据支持其存在人体致癌性的物质,如铅及其化合物、多氯联苯和滴滴涕、萘、硝基苯等。三类致癌物质,指缺乏足够证据证明其人体致癌性和实验动物致癌性,但存在足够理论支持其具备致癌性的物质,如苯胺、邻苯二甲酸酯增塑剂、苏丹红等。
(1)职业性别隔离,是指男女因性别不同而被分配、集中到不同的职业和工作中,职业性别隔离的程度越高,表明男女在不同职业类型中的分布愈加不均衡,收入和许多非经济资源的分布愈加不平等。
(2)伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life year,DALY)是指从发病到死亡所损失的全部健康生命年,包括因早死所致的生命损失年(YLL)和疾病所致伤残引起的健康生命损失年(YLD)两部分。DALY是生命数量和生命质量以时间为单位的综合度量。