中国公共资本存量的再估计及其应用——动态一般均衡的视角
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摘要
在宏观经济研究中,公共资本存量是讨论政府支出弹性和乘数效应的基础数据。本文采用动态随机一般均衡模型,对不同形式调整成本的公共资本存量模型进行甄别,选出与中国实际经济最为契合的公共资本积累模型。通过"贝叶斯"方法,本文测算出中国公共资本的年折旧率为9.28%。根据选择的积累模型和折旧率,本文估计出全国及31个省份1978—2013年的公共资本存量。根据估算的结果,本文进一步讨论了公共资本的投资效率、区域间的公共资本差异及其最优性。研究发现:大部分省份公共资本的实际水平远高于产出弹性;公共资本的边际效率低于1,表明目前的政府投资水平是过度且低效的。
Employing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model,we compare different accumulating models of public capital with various adjustment cost and chooses the best one which fits Chinese datum well.Using the Bayesian method,we estimate that China's annual depreciation rate of public capital is 9.28%.We also estimate the whole country's public capital stock and the sub-national public capital stock during 1978—2013 with selected accumulation model and estimated depreciation rate.We then investigate the investment efficiency of public capital,the difference of public capital stock among sub-national governments,and its optimality.We find that the actual level of public capital in most provinces is much higher than its output elasticity,and the marginal efficiency of public capital is lower than 1,which indicates that the current governments' investment level is excessive and inefficient.
Employing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model,we compare different accumulating models of public capital with various adjustment cost and chooses the best one which fits Chinese datum well.Using the Bayesian method,we estimate that China's annual depreciation rate of public capital is 9.28%.We also estimate the whole country's public capital stock and the sub-national public capital stock during 1978—2013 with selected accumulation model and estimated depreciation rate.We then investigate the investment efficiency of public capital,the difference of public capital stock among sub-national governments,and its optimality.We find that the actual level of public capital in most provinces is much higher than its output elasticity,and the marginal efficiency of public capital is lower than 1,which indicates that the current governments' investment level is excessive and inefficient.
引文
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34 这一方面,金戈(2012)、陈碧琼(2013)、王文甫和窦义海(2013)等也是将私人折旧率的结果用于公共资本存量的估计。
35 该研究估算的1994年前的公共资本存量数据与本文的结果相近,但1994年后的结果明显大于本文估算的结果。这既是由于选择的公共投资的统计口径不同造成的,又是由于确定的折旧率不同造成的。
36 许宪春、王宝滨、徐雄飞,“中国的投资增长及其与财政政策的关系”,《管理世界》,2013年第6期,第1 —11页。
37因篇幅所限,省级公共资本存量的估算结果从略,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。根据《中共中央、国务院关于促进中部地区崛起的若干意见》《国务院发布关于西部大开发若干政策措施的实施意见》中的区域划分方法,将北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南划归到东部地区;把山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南划为中部地区;将内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆划为西部地区;辽宁、吉林、黑龙江则为东北地区。
38比如1998年我国部分省份发生特大洪水灾害;2003年一些省份爆发“非典”;2008年四川发生特大地震。
39赵志耘、吕冰洋,“政府生产性支出对产出-资本比的影响”,《经济研究》,2005年第11期,第46—56页。
40张学勇、薛志宏,“金融危机、公司特征及调控政策效果”,《经济学动态》,2014年第5期,第84—95页。
41应用Stata 12.0软件进行实证分析,实证分析时设定私人资本的产出弹性系数与劳动的产出弹性系数之和等于1。
42朱军,“高级财政学:现代公共财政前沿理论分析”,上海财经大学出版社,2010年,第53—70页。
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1 张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏,“中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000”,《经济研究》,2004年第10期,第35 —44页;朱平芳、徐大丰,“中国城市人力资本的估算”,《经济研究》,2007年第9期,第84—95页;单豪杰,“中国资本存量K的再估算:1952—2006”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2008年第10期,第17—31页;徐杰、段万春、杨建龙,“中国资本存量的重估”,《统计研究》,2010年第12期,第72—77页;李宾,“我国资本存量估算的比较分析”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2011年第12期,第21—36页;金戈,“中国基础设施资本存量估算”,《经济研究》,2012年第4期,第4—14页;金戈,“中国基础设施与非基础设施资本存量及其产出弹性估算”,《经济研究》,2016年第5期,第41—56页;陈碧琼、张梁梁、曹跃群,“省际公共资本存量估算与区域配置”,《经济科学》,2013年第4期,第26—40页;王文甫、窦义海,“中国省际公共资本存量估算:1993—2011”,2013中国经济学年会会议论文,2013年;陈昌兵,“可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算”,《经济研究》,2014年第12期,第72—85页;金戈、朱丹,“经济增长模型中的公共资本”,《经济理论与经济管理》,2015年第5期,第98—112页。
2 王国静、田国强,“政府支出乘数”,《经济研究》,2014年第9期,第4—19页。
3 朱晶,“农业公共投资,竞争力与粮食安全”,《经济研究》,2003年第1期,第13—20页。
4 于长革,“经济增长与政府公共投资分析”,《经济科学》,2004年第6期,第103—111页。
5 娄洪,“长期经济增长中的公共投资政策”,《经济研究》,2004年第3期,第10—19页。
6 马拴友,“中国公共资本与私人部门经济增长的实证分析”,《经济科学》,2000年第6期,第21—26页。
7 吴国权、杨义群,“通货紧缩时期国债的公共资本供给实效评估”,《财经科学》,2003年第2期,第74—78 页。
8 张海星,“中国公共投资与经济增长的协整检验”,《财政研究》,2004年第7期,第40—43页。
9 贾俊雪、郭庆旺、刘晓路,“资本性支出分权、公共资本投资构成与经济增长”,《经济研究》,2006年第12期,第47—58页。
10 张卫国、任燕燕、花小安,“地方政府投资行为、地区性行政垄断与经济增长”,《经济研究》,2011年第8期,第26—37页。
11 陈志国,“中国公共资本存量和私人资本存量的估计与分析”,《财政研究》,2005年第9期,第29—31页。
12 饶晓辉、刘方,“政府生产性支出与中国的实际经济波动”,《经济研究》,2014年第11期,第17—30页。
13 郭长林,“被遗忘的总供给:财政政策扩张一定会导致通货膨胀吗”,《经济研究》,2016年第2期,第30 —41页。
14 陈昌兵,“技术进步、经济增长与资本折旧率”,中国社会科学院经济研究所工作论文,2016。
15 如投资的调整成本(investment adjustment costs,capital adjustment costs为“资本调整成本”)是指企业在投资时资本的安置成本和资本价格变动导致的成本。最直观的表现是企业购买了新的机器后,需要对机器进行安装和训练工人熟悉使用新机器由此而产生的成本。
16 贾俊雪、郭庆旺,“财政支出类型、财政政策作用机理与最优财政货币政策规则”,《世界经济》,2012年第11期,第3—30页。
17参见全国总工会宣教部的调查报告《相当数量的企业不能足额提取和使用职工教育经费》,2006年第12 期,第46—50页。
18 张伟、郑婕、黄炎龙,“货币政策的预期冲击与产业经济转型效应分析”,《金融研究》,2014年第3期,第33 —49页。
19 许志伟、薛鹤翔、罗大庆,“融资约束与中国经济波动”,《经济学》(季刊),2010年第1期,第83—110页。
20 王文甫、朱保华,“政府支出的外部性和中国政府支出的宏观效应:动态随机一般均衡视角”,《经济科学》,2010年第2期,第17—28页。
21 胡永刚、刘方,“劳动调整成本、流动性约束与中国经济波动”,《经济研究》,2007年第10期,第32—43页。
22 吴化斌、许志伟、胡永刚等,“消息冲击下的财政政策及其宏观影响”,《管理世界》,2011年第9期,第26 —39页。
23 饶晓辉、刘方,“政府生产性支出与中国的实际经济波动”,《经济研究》,2014年第11期,第17—30页。
24 许志伟、樊海潮、薛鹤翔,“公众预期、货币供给与通货膨胀动态”,《经济学》(季刊),2015年第4期,第1 —24页。
25 限于篇幅本文不再列出具体的检验结果,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取Dynare程序。
26 郭庆旺、贾俊雪,“政府公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应”,《经济研究》,2006年第7期,第29—40页。
27 王小鲁、樊纲,“我国工业增长的可持续性”,经济科学出版社,2000年,第42—53页。
28 李治国、唐国兴,“资本形成路径与资本存量调整模型”,《经济研究》,2003年第2期,第34—42页。
29 何枫、陈荣、何林,“我国资本存量的估算及其相关分析”,《经济学家》,2003年第5期,第29—42页。
30 叶宗裕,“中国省际资本存量估算”,《统计研究》,2010年第12期,第65—71页。
31 贺菊煌,“我国资产的估算”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,1992年第8期,第24—27页;张军、章元,“对中国资本存量K的再估计”,《经济研究》,2003年第7期,第35—43页。
32张健华、王鹏,“中国全要素生产率:基于分省份资本折旧率的再估计”,《管理世界》,2012年第10期,第18—30页。
33 黄勇峰、任若恩、刘晓生,“中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计”,《经济学》(季刊),2002年第1期,第377 —396页。
34 这一方面,金戈(2012)、陈碧琼(2013)、王文甫和窦义海(2013)等也是将私人折旧率的结果用于公共资本存量的估计。
35 该研究估算的1994年前的公共资本存量数据与本文的结果相近,但1994年后的结果明显大于本文估算的结果。这既是由于选择的公共投资的统计口径不同造成的,又是由于确定的折旧率不同造成的。
36 许宪春、王宝滨、徐雄飞,“中国的投资增长及其与财政政策的关系”,《管理世界》,2013年第6期,第1 —11页。
37因篇幅所限,省级公共资本存量的估算结果从略,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。根据《中共中央、国务院关于促进中部地区崛起的若干意见》《国务院发布关于西部大开发若干政策措施的实施意见》中的区域划分方法,将北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南划归到东部地区;把山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南划为中部地区;将内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆划为西部地区;辽宁、吉林、黑龙江则为东北地区。
38比如1998年我国部分省份发生特大洪水灾害;2003年一些省份爆发“非典”;2008年四川发生特大地震。
39赵志耘、吕冰洋,“政府生产性支出对产出-资本比的影响”,《经济研究》,2005年第11期,第46—56页。
40张学勇、薛志宏,“金融危机、公司特征及调控政策效果”,《经济学动态》,2014年第5期,第84—95页。
41应用Stata 12.0软件进行实证分析,实证分析时设定私人资本的产出弹性系数与劳动的产出弹性系数之和等于1。
42朱军,“高级财政学:现代公共财政前沿理论分析”,上海财经大学出版社,2010年,第53—70页。