公路运输区域关联模型研究
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摘要
全面准确统计公路运输在区域间的流通规模和结构,掌握区域公路运输发展的趋势、特点和规律,是科学编制区域交通发展规划、出台区域运输发展政策的重要基础.长久以来,受管理体制和统计手段限制,我国公路运输量统计一直沿袭基于车辆注册地的抽样调查模式,统计结果不仅难以与当地经济发展水平相匹配,也难以反映公路运输生产在区域间的交流情况.随着经济社会的快速发展,区域间人员和物资流通日益频繁,急需反映区域经济关联关系的运输统计工具.本文在车辆抽样调查的基础上,通过研究编制公路运输流量流向矩阵,构建公路运输区域关联模型,为研究分析区域间公路运输供给与需求关系、测算区域公路运输生产规模提供基础支撑.
It is essential to accurately calculate the scale and structure of inter-region road transportation and grasp the tendency and characteristics of regional road transportation.It also lays the foundation for making out the regional traffic development program and regional transportation development policy.Because of the limitation of management system and statistical techniques in China,the road transportation volume statistics are usually based on sample investigation of local vehicles.This makes the results cannot mach well with the actual local economy development.It is not able to reflect inter-region exchange of road transportation.As the repaid economy and society development,inter-region flow of personnel and cargo is more frequently and important.This places an urgent need of statistical approach that can reflect the inter-region road transportation correlation.This paper develops an inter-region correlation model for road transportation with a flux and flow direction matrix.This model provides a quantitative method to analyze demand and supply of inter-region road transportation and estimate the regional road transportation volume.
It is essential to accurately calculate the scale and structure of inter-region road transportation and grasp the tendency and characteristics of regional road transportation.It also lays the foundation for making out the regional traffic development program and regional transportation development policy.Because of the limitation of management system and statistical techniques in China,the road transportation volume statistics are usually based on sample investigation of local vehicles.This makes the results cannot mach well with the actual local economy development.It is not able to reflect inter-region exchange of road transportation.As the repaid economy and society development,inter-region flow of personnel and cargo is more frequently and important.This places an urgent need of statistical approach that can reflect the inter-region road transportation correlation.This paper develops an inter-region correlation model for road transportation with a flux and flow direction matrix.This model provides a quantitative method to analyze demand and supply of inter-region road transportation and estimate the regional road transportation volume.
引文
[1]岑晏青,邹力,杨兆升.抽样调查技术在交通运输统计中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2000(2):67-71.[CEN Y Q,ZOU L,YANG Z S.The application ofsampling survey technology in transportation statistics[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Researchand Development,2000(2):67-71.]
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[2]刘东霞,张美卿.浅谈抽样调查统计方法在公路运输行业中的应用[J].山西统计,2001(11):36-37.[LIU D X.ZHANG M Q.The application of samplingsurvey technology in road transportation Statistics[J].Shanxi Statistics,2001(11):36-37.]
[3]左庆乐,林文新.建立我国高速公路运输量统计调查制度的思考[J].交通标准化,2004(8):107-109.[ZUO Q L,LIN W X.The discussion on establishingstatistic system of highway transportation volume[J].Communications Standardization,2004(8):107-109.]
[4]陈荫三.高速公路运输量研究[J].中国公路学报,2005(2):94-98.[CHEN Y S.Study of freewaytransportation volume[J].China Journal of Highwayand Transport,2005(2):94-98.]
[5]崔凤安,祝昭.区域交通网承载运输量推算方法研究[J].综合运输,2006(5):59-61.[CUI F A,ZHUZ.Research on methods of inter-region communicationnetwork transportation volume[J].ComprehensiveTransportation,2006(5):59-61.]
[6]岑晏青,董静,段新.全国公路水路运输量专项调查资料汇编[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2009.[CEN Y Q,DONG J,DUAN X.The data oftransportation volume statistics[M].Beijing:ChinaEconomic Publishing House,2009.]