公路路网货物运输量月度波动系数推算方法
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摘要
公路运输量波动系数反映了运输需求与运输供给在时空上的不均衡状态.本文首先分析了车辆货物运输量月度波动系数的统计方法和其在统计调查中存在的问题;接着依托高速公路联网收费系统、交通量自动观测点与交通量调查信息系统等平台,建立了公路路网货物运输量月度波动系数推算模型,把车货质量、收费总额、交通量、车道数、通车里程等参数引入到模型中来,并对公路路网货物运输量非基数月度波动系数提出了量化处理、权重赋予的方法;最后,通过实例验证了模型和算法的可行性.研究成果可为公路路网货物运输量统计调查、区域内公路路网规划和综合运输体系优化提供切实的参考.
The fluctuation coefficient on highway transportation volume reflected an imbalance status of the transportation demand and supply in the aspect of time and space. According to analyzing the statistical method of vehicle freight transportation volume of monthly fluctuation coefficient and its problems in the statistical investigation; and then relying on platform such as the expressway network toll system, the traffic volume automatic observation point, the survey information system, this paper establishes a calculation model of monthly fluctuation coefficient on highway network freight transportation volume. And some parameters such as the weights of cargo and vehicle, the toll sum, the traffic volume, the number of lanes, the traffic mileage are combined into a model. And then the way of processing in quantity and assigning weight is put forward which for the non base monthly fluctuation coefficient on highway network freight transportation volumes. Finally this paper verifies the feasibility of the model and calculation. The result can provide a practical reference on the statistical investigation of highway network freight transportation volumes, regional highway network planning, and the comprehensive transportation system optimization.
The fluctuation coefficient on highway transportation volume reflected an imbalance status of the transportation demand and supply in the aspect of time and space. According to analyzing the statistical method of vehicle freight transportation volume of monthly fluctuation coefficient and its problems in the statistical investigation; and then relying on platform such as the expressway network toll system, the traffic volume automatic observation point, the survey information system, this paper establishes a calculation model of monthly fluctuation coefficient on highway network freight transportation volume. And some parameters such as the weights of cargo and vehicle, the toll sum, the traffic volume, the number of lanes, the traffic mileage are combined into a model. And then the way of processing in quantity and assigning weight is put forward which for the non base monthly fluctuation coefficient on highway network freight transportation volumes. Finally this paper verifies the feasibility of the model and calculation. The result can provide a practical reference on the statistical investigation of highway network freight transportation volumes, regional highway network planning, and the comprehensive transportation system optimization.
引文
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[9]刘拥华,孙静怡,何民,等.高速公路货物运输量统计方法[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(4):143-148.[LIU YH,SUN J Y,HE M,et al.Statistical method ofexpressway transportation volume of goods[J].Journal ofHighway and Transportation Research and Development,2012,29(4):143-148.]
[2]Gagnon F,Trepanier J.Redesign of the truckingcommodity origin and destination survey[R].Ottawa:Statistics Canada,2009.
[3]Bureau of Transportation Statistics,US Department ofTransportation.Transportation statistical annual report2008[R].Washington DC:Bureau of TransportationStatistics,US Department of Transportation,2009.
[4]赵淑芝,田振中,张树山,等.基于BP神经网络的组合预测模型及其在公路运输量预测中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006,6(4):108-112.[ZHAO S Z,TIAN Z Z,ZHANG S S,et al.Combination forecastmodel by using BP neural network and its application inhighway transportation volume forecast[J].Journal ofTransportation Systems Engineering and InformationTechnology,2006,6(4):108-112.]
[5]李彬,陈荫三,肖润谋.2012年中国高速公路网运输状态[J].交通运输工程学报,2013,13(5):76-82.[LI B,CHEN Y S,XIAO R M.Transportation status of Chineseexpressway network in 2012[J].Journal of Traffic andTransportation Engineering,2013,13(5):76-82.]
[6]杨铭,秦华容,陈荫三.区域公路货物周转量结构分析与推算方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2011,11(5):93-100.[YANG M,QIN H R,CHEN Y S.Structureanalysis and calculation method of freight turnover forregional highway[J].Journal of Traffic andTransportation Engineering,2011,11(5):93-100.]
[7]吴彪,戴彤焱,齐晓杰.基于重要性和可行性的区域公路货物运输量统计指标排序模型[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2012,36(5):962-966.[WU B,DAI D Y,QI X J.Ranking model on statistics indicatorsof region highway freight transportation volumes basedon significance and feasibility[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science&Engineering),2012,36(5):962-966.]
[8]张志俊.公路运输量月度波动系数研究[J].统计与决策,2009,21:38-39.[ZHANG Z J.Study of monthlyfluctuation coefficient on road volume[J].Statistics andDecision,2009,21:38-39.]
[9]刘拥华,孙静怡,何民,等.高速公路货物运输量统计方法[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(4):143-148.[LIU YH,SUN J Y,HE M,et al.Statistical method ofexpressway transportation volume of goods[J].Journal ofHighway and Transportation Research and Development,2012,29(4):143-148.]