中美GVC和NVC视角产业关联对比分析——基于非竞争型投入产出数据
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摘要
本文基于上游度指数和下游度指数,从GVC视角和NVC视角对比分析了中美相关产业的关联程度,结果表明:整体来看,上游度指数以及下游度指数所反映出的产业向上下游渗透的程度上,中国比美国存在一定的优势,这种优势无论是在GVC视角下还是在NVC视角下均存在。其二,测算结果反映出的信息表明中国正在往"微笑曲线"的两端移动,但是步伐较小,程度不够。其三,参与GVC对于中美两国产业关联程度的影响较为复杂,对中国而言,与下游产业关联程度负面影响更多,与上游产业关联程度多为正面影响,制造业影响程度小于服务业,影响程度在减弱;对美国而言,制造业与下游产业关联程度多为正面影响,而服务业多为负面影响,制造业和服务业与上游产业关联程度多为正面影响,而且制造业影响程度高于服务业,影响程度均在加深。就分析结果看,中美在分工以及获益之间存在一种角色的"错配"。本文创新点在于:综合前向关联和后向关联,对比分析了中美两国在GVC和NVC视角下的产业关联情况,使得对于中美两国开放条件下的产业关联分析更加完整。
Based on the upstreamness and downstreamness degree indexes of industry,this paper makes a comparative analysis on the connection degree of relevant industries between China and America from the GVC and NVC perspectives.The results are shown as follows.As a whole,as for the upward and downstream industry"penetration"degree reflected by upstreamness and downstreamness indexes,China has certain advantages compared to America.Secondly,the results reflect that China is moving at both ends of the "smile curve",but at a small pace and not enough.Thirdly,participating in the global value chain has relatively complicated influence on the industrial connection degree between China and America.As for China,the downstream industry association degree shows more negative effect while the upstream industry association degree shows more positive impact;and manufacturing influence degree,less than service,is weakening.As for America,the effect of downstream industry association degree on manufacturing industry is positive,and the effect on service industry is negative.The effects of upstream industry association degree on manufacturing and service are both positive,but the extent of effects on manufacturing is greater than service,with both effects are deepening.According to results of the analysis,there is a "mismatch"in the division of labor and benefits between China and America.
Based on the upstreamness and downstreamness degree indexes of industry,this paper makes a comparative analysis on the connection degree of relevant industries between China and America from the GVC and NVC perspectives.The results are shown as follows.As a whole,as for the upward and downstream industry"penetration"degree reflected by upstreamness and downstreamness indexes,China has certain advantages compared to America.Secondly,the results reflect that China is moving at both ends of the "smile curve",but at a small pace and not enough.Thirdly,participating in the global value chain has relatively complicated influence on the industrial connection degree between China and America.As for China,the downstream industry association degree shows more negative effect while the upstream industry association degree shows more positive impact;and manufacturing influence degree,less than service,is weakening.As for America,the effect of downstream industry association degree on manufacturing industry is positive,and the effect on service industry is negative.The effects of upstream industry association degree on manufacturing and service are both positive,but the extent of effects on manufacturing is greater than service,with both effects are deepening.According to results of the analysis,there is a "mismatch"in the division of labor and benefits between China and America.
引文
[1]RACHELDARDIS.Intermediate Goods and the Gain From Trade[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1967,49(4):502-509.
[2]CKHANG.A Dynamic Model of Trade Between the Final and the Intermediate Products[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1969,1(4):416-437.
[3]RDWAENE.Intermediate Goods in International Trade with Variable Proportions and Two Primary Inputs[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1971,85(2):225-236.
[4]WILLIAM DER.Multi-Intermediate-Goods Trade:The Gains and A Heckscher-Ohlin Analysis[J].American Economic Review,1979,69(4):575-586.
[5]CHHANF,RAE MUELLER.Specification of Trade in Intermediate By-products in Aggregate Models of Supply:ACase Study[J].European Review of Agricultural Economics,1980,7(3):333-339.
[6]A SARKAR.A model of Trade in Intermediate Goods[J].Journal of International Economics,1985,19(1-2):85-98.
[7]ANTRS,A COSTINOT.Intermediated Trade[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2010,126(3):1319-1374.
[8]W LEONTIEF.Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1936,18(3):105-125.
[9]HUMMELS,ISHII,YI.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization In world Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54:75-96.
[10]KOOPMAN,POWERS,WANG ET AL.Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[R].NBER Working Paper No.16426,2010(9).
[11]KOOPMAN,WANG,WEI.The Value-added Structure of Gross Exports:Measuring Revealed Comparative Advantage by Domestic Content in Exports.2014(6).
[12]ANTRS,CHOR.Organizing the Global Value Chain.NBER Working Paper,No.18163,2012a(6).
[13]JOHNSON,NOGUERA.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,86:224-236.
[14]WANG,WEI,ZHU.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels.NBERWorking Paper,No.19677,2014(3).
[15]THIBAULT FALLY.On the Fragmentation of Production in the US.University of Colorado Mimeo,2011.
[16]ANTRS,CHOR,FALLY.Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows.NBER Working Paper,NO.17819,2012.
[17]MILLER,TEMURSHOEV.Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industries/Countries in World Production.International Regional Science Review,2015(7).
[18]唐东波.贸易政策与产业发展:基于全球价值链视角的分析[J].管理世界,2012(12):13-22.
[19]李晓,张建平.东亚产业关联的研究方法与现状---一个国际/国家间投入产出模型的综述[J].经济研究,2010(4):147-160.
[20]鞠建东,余心玎.全球价值链上的中国角色---基于中国行业上游度和海关数据的研究[J].南开经济研究,2014(3):39-52.
[21]王金亮.基于上游度测算的我国产业全球地位分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(3):25-33.
[22]周华,李飞飞,赵轩等.非等间距产业上游度及贸易上游度测算方法的设计及启用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(6):128-143.
[23]程大中.中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势---基于跨国投入-产出分析[J].经济研究,2015(9):4-16.
[24]岑丽君.中国在全球生产网络中的分工与贸易地位---基于TiVA数据与GVC指数的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(1):3-13.
(1)详细的推导过程见参考文献[17]Miller等(2015)。
(1)c1农作物与动物生产、狩猎以及相关活动,c2农林与伐木业,c3渔业以及水产养殖业,c4采矿业,c5为食品、烟草及饮料制造业,c6纺织、服装以及皮革制品业,c7木材、木材制品、软木制品,c8纸及纸产品业,c9印刷及媒体刻录业,c10焦炭及石油提炼业,c11化学及化学制品,c12基础制药及制药准备业,c13橡胶及塑料制品,c14其他非金属矿物制品,c15基本金属,c16焊接金属品(除机械和设备外),c17计算机、电子及光学产品,c18电子设备,c19机械和设备等,c20摩托、拖车和半拖车,c21其他运输设备,c22家具和其他制造业,c23机械及设备的维修和安装,c24电、气、蒸汽、空调供应,c25水回收、处理及供应,c26污水处理、废物回收及处理、材料修复及其他修复活动,c27建筑业,c28批发、零售以及摩托修复,c29批发贸易(除摩托外),c30零售贸易(除摩托外),c31陆地运输及管道运输,c32水路运输,c33空中运输,c34储仓及为运输提供支持的活动,c35邮递及通讯活动,c36住宿和食物服务活动,c37出版活动,c38动画、视频及电视节目提供、音乐出版、电视广播活动,c39通信,c40计算机程序、咨询及相关活动、信息服务活动,c41金融服务活动(除保险和养老金外),c42保险和养老金(除义务社会保障外),c43金融及保险活动的附属活动,c44不动产活动,c45法律及会计活动、咨询管理活动,c46建筑及工程活动、技术测算与分析,c47科研与发展,c48广告与营销活动,c49其他专业、科技活动、兽医活动,c50管理与支持性服务活动,c51公共管理与防御、义务社会安保,c52教育,c53人类健康及社会工作,c54其他服务活动,c55家庭作为雇主的活动、未区分的货物和服务、家庭的生产活动供自己使用以及c56域外组织和机构的活动。
[2]CKHANG.A Dynamic Model of Trade Between the Final and the Intermediate Products[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1969,1(4):416-437.
[3]RDWAENE.Intermediate Goods in International Trade with Variable Proportions and Two Primary Inputs[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1971,85(2):225-236.
[4]WILLIAM DER.Multi-Intermediate-Goods Trade:The Gains and A Heckscher-Ohlin Analysis[J].American Economic Review,1979,69(4):575-586.
[5]CHHANF,RAE MUELLER.Specification of Trade in Intermediate By-products in Aggregate Models of Supply:ACase Study[J].European Review of Agricultural Economics,1980,7(3):333-339.
[6]A SARKAR.A model of Trade in Intermediate Goods[J].Journal of International Economics,1985,19(1-2):85-98.
[7]ANTRS,A COSTINOT.Intermediated Trade[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2010,126(3):1319-1374.
[8]W LEONTIEF.Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1936,18(3):105-125.
[9]HUMMELS,ISHII,YI.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization In world Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54:75-96.
[10]KOOPMAN,POWERS,WANG ET AL.Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains[R].NBER Working Paper No.16426,2010(9).
[11]KOOPMAN,WANG,WEI.The Value-added Structure of Gross Exports:Measuring Revealed Comparative Advantage by Domestic Content in Exports.2014(6).
[12]ANTRS,CHOR.Organizing the Global Value Chain.NBER Working Paper,No.18163,2012a(6).
[13]JOHNSON,NOGUERA.Accounting for Intermediates:Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,86:224-236.
[14]WANG,WEI,ZHU.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels.NBERWorking Paper,No.19677,2014(3).
[15]THIBAULT FALLY.On the Fragmentation of Production in the US.University of Colorado Mimeo,2011.
[16]ANTRS,CHOR,FALLY.Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows.NBER Working Paper,NO.17819,2012.
[17]MILLER,TEMURSHOEV.Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industries/Countries in World Production.International Regional Science Review,2015(7).
[18]唐东波.贸易政策与产业发展:基于全球价值链视角的分析[J].管理世界,2012(12):13-22.
[19]李晓,张建平.东亚产业关联的研究方法与现状---一个国际/国家间投入产出模型的综述[J].经济研究,2010(4):147-160.
[20]鞠建东,余心玎.全球价值链上的中国角色---基于中国行业上游度和海关数据的研究[J].南开经济研究,2014(3):39-52.
[21]王金亮.基于上游度测算的我国产业全球地位分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(3):25-33.
[22]周华,李飞飞,赵轩等.非等间距产业上游度及贸易上游度测算方法的设计及启用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(6):128-143.
[23]程大中.中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势---基于跨国投入-产出分析[J].经济研究,2015(9):4-16.
[24]岑丽君.中国在全球生产网络中的分工与贸易地位---基于TiVA数据与GVC指数的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(1):3-13.
(1)详细的推导过程见参考文献[17]Miller等(2015)。
(1)c1农作物与动物生产、狩猎以及相关活动,c2农林与伐木业,c3渔业以及水产养殖业,c4采矿业,c5为食品、烟草及饮料制造业,c6纺织、服装以及皮革制品业,c7木材、木材制品、软木制品,c8纸及纸产品业,c9印刷及媒体刻录业,c10焦炭及石油提炼业,c11化学及化学制品,c12基础制药及制药准备业,c13橡胶及塑料制品,c14其他非金属矿物制品,c15基本金属,c16焊接金属品(除机械和设备外),c17计算机、电子及光学产品,c18电子设备,c19机械和设备等,c20摩托、拖车和半拖车,c21其他运输设备,c22家具和其他制造业,c23机械及设备的维修和安装,c24电、气、蒸汽、空调供应,c25水回收、处理及供应,c26污水处理、废物回收及处理、材料修复及其他修复活动,c27建筑业,c28批发、零售以及摩托修复,c29批发贸易(除摩托外),c30零售贸易(除摩托外),c31陆地运输及管道运输,c32水路运输,c33空中运输,c34储仓及为运输提供支持的活动,c35邮递及通讯活动,c36住宿和食物服务活动,c37出版活动,c38动画、视频及电视节目提供、音乐出版、电视广播活动,c39通信,c40计算机程序、咨询及相关活动、信息服务活动,c41金融服务活动(除保险和养老金外),c42保险和养老金(除义务社会保障外),c43金融及保险活动的附属活动,c44不动产活动,c45法律及会计活动、咨询管理活动,c46建筑及工程活动、技术测算与分析,c47科研与发展,c48广告与营销活动,c49其他专业、科技活动、兽医活动,c50管理与支持性服务活动,c51公共管理与防御、义务社会安保,c52教育,c53人类健康及社会工作,c54其他服务活动,c55家庭作为雇主的活动、未区分的货物和服务、家庭的生产活动供自己使用以及c56域外组织和机构的活动。