磨刀门水道枯水期咸潮变化趋势及成因
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摘要
在对1998—2015年磨刀门水道咸潮上溯不同时间尺度变化特征进行统计分析的基础上,采用Spearman秩相关分析识别流量、海平面、平均潮差、最高潮位、最低潮位以及降雨量等因素与咸度超标时数之间的相关性,利用主成分分析确定各因素对咸潮上溯活动变化的贡献程度。研究结果表明:1998—2015年,磨刀门水道枯水期的咸潮上溯活动表现出两阶段的变化特征,以2004—2005年枯水期为分界点,第一阶段的咸度超标时数呈现出先下降后上升的"V"型变化特征,第二阶段则总体表现为下降趋势,有利于河口地区的供水安全;咸潮高超标时数主要集中在每年12月至次年2月,且变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致;流量、海平面和最低潮位与咸度超标时数相关性显著,且通过了99%的显著性水平检验,而海平面与咸度超标时数的相关关系(负相关)与理论结果不一致是受到了人为活动的影响;引起第一阶段咸度超标时数"V"型变化的主要原因是自然因素(降雨)的影响,而第二阶段咸度超标时数整体呈下降趋势的原因除了自然因素外,还包括调水压咸等人为活动的干扰。
On the basis of statistical analysis of the characteristics of salt tide intrusion changes at different time scales in Modaomen Channel from 1998 to 2015,Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to identify the correlation between discharge,sea level,mean tidal range,maximum tidal level,minimum tidal level,rainfall and saltwater over-standard time.Principal component analysis was used to determine the contribution of each factor to salt tide intrusion activities.The results show that the salt tide intrusion of Modaomen Channel during the period from 1998 to 2015 shows the characteristic of two-stage change,taking the dry season of 2004—2005 as the demarcation point.In the first stage,salinity exceeding standard hours shows a"V"type change characteristic of first decreasing and then rising,while in the second stage shows a downward trend,which is conducive to the water supply safety in estuary area.The time of salinity exceeding standard seriously mainly concentrates from December to February of next year,and the change process is basically consistent with the interannual change process.Discharge,sea level and lowest tide level are significantly correlated with salinity exceeding standard hours,and pass 99% significance level test.While the correlation between sea level and salinity exceeding standard hours(negative correlation) is inconsistent with the theoretical results,which is affected by human activities.The main reason for the"V"type change of salinity exceeding standard hours in the first stage is the influence of natural factors(rainfall),while the overall decline of salinity exceeding standard hours in the second stage is due to the disturbance of human activities,such as water diversion for stemming salt tide,besides natural factors.
On the basis of statistical analysis of the characteristics of salt tide intrusion changes at different time scales in Modaomen Channel from 1998 to 2015,Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to identify the correlation between discharge,sea level,mean tidal range,maximum tidal level,minimum tidal level,rainfall and saltwater over-standard time.Principal component analysis was used to determine the contribution of each factor to salt tide intrusion activities.The results show that the salt tide intrusion of Modaomen Channel during the period from 1998 to 2015 shows the characteristic of two-stage change,taking the dry season of 2004—2005 as the demarcation point.In the first stage,salinity exceeding standard hours shows a"V"type change characteristic of first decreasing and then rising,while in the second stage shows a downward trend,which is conducive to the water supply safety in estuary area.The time of salinity exceeding standard seriously mainly concentrates from December to February of next year,and the change process is basically consistent with the interannual change process.Discharge,sea level and lowest tide level are significantly correlated with salinity exceeding standard hours,and pass 99% significance level test.While the correlation between sea level and salinity exceeding standard hours(negative correlation) is inconsistent with the theoretical results,which is affected by human activities.The main reason for the"V"type change of salinity exceeding standard hours in the first stage is the influence of natural factors(rainfall),while the overall decline of salinity exceeding standard hours in the second stage is due to the disturbance of human activities,such as water diversion for stemming salt tide,besides natural factors.
引文
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[14]GONG Wenping,SHEN Jian.The response of salt intrusion to changes in river discharge and tidal mixing during the dry season in the Modaomen Estuary,China[J].Continental Shelf Research,2011,31(7/8):769-788.
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[16]ZHANG Wei,FENG Haochuan,ZHENG Jinhai,et al.Numerical simulation and analysis of saltwater intrusion lengths in the Pearl River Delta,China[J].Journal of Coastal Research,2013,29(2):372-382.
[17]孔兰,陈晓宏,闻平,等.2009/2010年枯水期珠江口磨刀门水道强咸潮分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1858-1865.(KONG Lan,CHEN Xiaohong,WENPing,et al.Analysis on severe saltwater intrusion in Modaomen Channel of the Pearl River Estuary in dry season during 2009-2010[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1858-1865.(in Chinese))
[18]罗琳,陈举,杨威,等.2007-2008年冬季珠江三角洲强咸潮事件[J].热带海洋学报,2010,29(6):22-28.(LUO Lin,CHEN Ju,YANG Wei,et al.An intensive saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta during the winter of 2007-2008[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography,2010,29(6):22-28.(in Chinese))
[19]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法(第3版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2017:78-80,106-109.
[20]朱星宇,陈勇强.SPSS多元统计分析方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2011:241.
[21]宋晓飞,石荣贵,孙羚晏,等.珠江口磨刀门盐水入侵的现状与成因分析[J].海洋通报,2014,33(1):7-15.(SONG Xiaofei,SHI Ronggui,SUN Lingyan,et al.Status and cause of saltwater intrusion in Modaomen,Pearl River estuary[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2014,33(1):7-15.(in Chinese))
[22]赖荣康.珠海地区咸潮影响因子统计与分析[D].青岛:中国海洋大学.2011.
[23]王津,陈南,姚泊.珠江三角洲咸潮影响因子及综合防治综述[J].广东水利水电,2006,(4):4-5,8.(WANGJin,CHEN Nan,YAO Bo.Review on impact factors and integrated control of saltwater in the Pearl River Delta[J].Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower,2006,(4):4-5,8.(in Chinese))
[24]ZHANG Xinfeng,DENG Jiaquan.Affecting factors of salinity intrusion in Pearl River Estuary and sustainable utilization of water resources in Pearl River Delta[M].Netherlands:Springer,2010:11-17.
[25]孔兰,陈晓宏.珠江口咸潮影响因素分析[J].水资源保护,2015,31(6):94-97,134.(KONG Lan,CHENXiaohong.Analysis on the influence factors of saltwater in Pearl River Estuary[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(6):94-97,134.(in Chinese))
[26]孔兰,陈晓宏,刘斌,等.咸潮影响下磨刀门水道取淡时机初探[J].水资源保护,2011,27(6):24-27.(KONGLan,CHEN Xiaohong,LIU Bin,et al.A preliminary study on fresh water extraction time under influence of salt tide in Modaomen Channel[J].Water Resources Protection,2011,27(6):24-27.(in Chinese))
[27]ZHANG Zhiming,CUI Baoshan,ZHAO Hui,et al.Discharge-salinity relationships in Modaomen waterway,Pearl River estuary[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2010,2:1235-1245.
[28]关帅,林颖妍,刘祖发.数值分析海平面上升对磨刀门水道咸潮上溯的影响[J].人民珠江,2017,38(8):1-6.(GUAN Shuai,LIN Yingyan,LIU Zufa.Modeling approach to assess the effects of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion in Modaomen Estuary[J].Pearl River,2017,38(8):1-6.(in Chinese))
[2]RENAUD F G,LE T T H,LINDENER C,et al.Resilience and shifts in agro-ecosystems facing increasing sea-level rise and salinity intrusion in Ben Tre Province,Mekong Delta[J].Climate Change,2015,133(1):69-84.
[3]RICE K C,HONG B,SHEN J.Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay,East Coast,USA[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2012,111:61-69.
[4]GONG Wenping,WANG Yaping,JIA Jianjun.The effect of interacting downstream branches on saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen Estuary,China[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2012,45:223-238.
[5]WANG Biao,ZHU Jianrong,WU Hui,et al.Dynamics of saltwater intrusion in the Modaomen Waterway of the Pearl River Estuary[J].Science China Earth Science,2012,55(11):1901-1918.
[6]肖莞生,陈子燊.珠江河口区枯季咸潮入侵与盐度输运机理分析[J].水文,2010,30(3):10-14.(XIAOGuansheng,CHEN Zishen.Analysis of saline intrusion and salinity transport mechanism in estuary of Pearl River[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(3):10-14.(in Chinese))
[7]胥加仕,罗承平.近年来珠江三角洲咸潮活动特点及重点研究领域探讨[J].人民珠江,2005,(2):21-23.(XU Jiashi,LUO Chengping.Characteristics of saline water activities in the Pearl River delta in recent years and major studied basin[J].Pearl River,2005,(2):21-23.(in Chinese))
[8]胡溪,毛献忠.珠江口磨刀门水道咸潮入侵规律研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(5):529-536.(HU Xi,MAOXianzhong.Study on saltwater intrusion in Modaomen of the Pearl Estuary[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(5):529-536.(in Chinese))
[9]苏程佳,陈莎,陈晓宏.基于随机森林模型的咸潮预报[J].热带地理,2018(3):432-439.(SU Chengjia,CHENSha,CHEN Xiaohong.Saltwater Intrusion Forecasting based on Random Forest[J].Tropical Geography,2018(3):432-439.(in Chinese))
[10]李化雪,贺新春,汝向文,等.珠江三角洲中珠联围供水安全现状及对策研究[J].人民珠江,2016,37(1):34-37.(LI Huaxue,HE Xinchun,RU Xiangwen,et al.Research on the current situation of water supply safety and strategic within the Levee of Zhongshan and Zhuhai in Pearl River delta region[J].Pearl River,2016,37(1):34-37.(in Chinese))
[11]周文浩.海平面上升对珠江三角洲咸潮入侵的影响[J].热带地理,1998,18(3):266-269,285.(ZHOUWenhao.Effect of the rise of sea level on the salinity intrusion in the Pearl River delta area[J].Tropical Geography,1998,18(3):266-269,285.(in Chinese))
[12]闻平,陈晓宏,刘斌,等.磨刀门水道咸潮入侵及其变异分析[J].水文,2007,27(3):65-67.(WEN Ping,CHENXiaohong,LIU Bin,et al.Analysis of tidal saltwater intrusion and its variation in Modaomen channel[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2007,27(3):65-67.(in Chinese))
[13]LIU Bingjun,YAN Shulan,CHEN Xiaohong,et al.Wavelet analysis of the dynamic characteristics of saltwater intrusion:a case study in the Pearl River Estuary of China[J].Ocean&Coastal Management,2014,95:81-92.
[14]GONG Wenping,SHEN Jian.The response of salt intrusion to changes in river discharge and tidal mixing during the dry season in the Modaomen Estuary,China[J].Continental Shelf Research,2011,31(7/8):769-788.
[15]吕爱琴,杜文印.磨刀门水道咸潮上溯成因分析[J].广东水利水电,2006(5):50-53.(LYU Aiqin,DU Wenyin.Cause of saltwater intrusion in Modaomen of Pearl River estuary[J].Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower,2006(5):50-53.(in Chinese))
[16]ZHANG Wei,FENG Haochuan,ZHENG Jinhai,et al.Numerical simulation and analysis of saltwater intrusion lengths in the Pearl River Delta,China[J].Journal of Coastal Research,2013,29(2):372-382.
[17]孔兰,陈晓宏,闻平,等.2009/2010年枯水期珠江口磨刀门水道强咸潮分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1858-1865.(KONG Lan,CHEN Xiaohong,WENPing,et al.Analysis on severe saltwater intrusion in Modaomen Channel of the Pearl River Estuary in dry season during 2009-2010[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1858-1865.(in Chinese))
[18]罗琳,陈举,杨威,等.2007-2008年冬季珠江三角洲强咸潮事件[J].热带海洋学报,2010,29(6):22-28.(LUO Lin,CHEN Ju,YANG Wei,et al.An intensive saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta during the winter of 2007-2008[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography,2010,29(6):22-28.(in Chinese))
[19]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法(第3版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2017:78-80,106-109.
[20]朱星宇,陈勇强.SPSS多元统计分析方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2011:241.
[21]宋晓飞,石荣贵,孙羚晏,等.珠江口磨刀门盐水入侵的现状与成因分析[J].海洋通报,2014,33(1):7-15.(SONG Xiaofei,SHI Ronggui,SUN Lingyan,et al.Status and cause of saltwater intrusion in Modaomen,Pearl River estuary[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2014,33(1):7-15.(in Chinese))
[22]赖荣康.珠海地区咸潮影响因子统计与分析[D].青岛:中国海洋大学.2011.
[23]王津,陈南,姚泊.珠江三角洲咸潮影响因子及综合防治综述[J].广东水利水电,2006,(4):4-5,8.(WANGJin,CHEN Nan,YAO Bo.Review on impact factors and integrated control of saltwater in the Pearl River Delta[J].Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower,2006,(4):4-5,8.(in Chinese))
[24]ZHANG Xinfeng,DENG Jiaquan.Affecting factors of salinity intrusion in Pearl River Estuary and sustainable utilization of water resources in Pearl River Delta[M].Netherlands:Springer,2010:11-17.
[25]孔兰,陈晓宏.珠江口咸潮影响因素分析[J].水资源保护,2015,31(6):94-97,134.(KONG Lan,CHENXiaohong.Analysis on the influence factors of saltwater in Pearl River Estuary[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(6):94-97,134.(in Chinese))
[26]孔兰,陈晓宏,刘斌,等.咸潮影响下磨刀门水道取淡时机初探[J].水资源保护,2011,27(6):24-27.(KONGLan,CHEN Xiaohong,LIU Bin,et al.A preliminary study on fresh water extraction time under influence of salt tide in Modaomen Channel[J].Water Resources Protection,2011,27(6):24-27.(in Chinese))
[27]ZHANG Zhiming,CUI Baoshan,ZHAO Hui,et al.Discharge-salinity relationships in Modaomen waterway,Pearl River estuary[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2010,2:1235-1245.
[28]关帅,林颖妍,刘祖发.数值分析海平面上升对磨刀门水道咸潮上溯的影响[J].人民珠江,2017,38(8):1-6.(GUAN Shuai,LIN Yingyan,LIU Zufa.Modeling approach to assess the effects of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion in Modaomen Estuary[J].Pearl River,2017,38(8):1-6.(in Chinese))