京津冀产业转移政策模拟研究——基于多区域CGE模型
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摘要
本文基于经济系统理论,构建了京津冀多区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,模拟分析了京津冀区域产业转移政策。模拟结果显示:京津冀区域产业转移政策将显著提高河北和天津的经济增长,从而有利于改善京津冀区域的总体协调发展;在不考虑生产率技术进步的前提下,单纯的京津冀区域产业转移政策对其他省市经济的影响微乎其微;当考虑到生产技术进步时,根据目前的京津冀区域产业转移政策,北京全要素生产率提高约9个百分点就可以使得京津冀区域产业转移政策对北京GDP不造成负面影响,却同时可以大幅提高河北、天津和其他省市的GDP增长率。
Based on economic system thoery,the paper built a multi-regional CGE model to simulate and analyze the industrial transfer policy among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province. The results show that the industrial transfer policy will siganificantly improve the economic development of TianJin and Heibei,which is useful to improve the overall coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei. Inconsidering productivity technology,the policy of industrial transfer in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province alone has minimal impact on other economies. However,when the production technology progress is considered,with 9 percentage rise of TFP in Beijing,it can make Beijing GDP almost unchanged,but also can significantly improve Hebei,Tianjin,other provinces and municipalities of the country's GDP growth rate.
Based on economic system thoery,the paper built a multi-regional CGE model to simulate and analyze the industrial transfer policy among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province. The results show that the industrial transfer policy will siganificantly improve the economic development of TianJin and Heibei,which is useful to improve the overall coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei. Inconsidering productivity technology,the policy of industrial transfer in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province alone has minimal impact on other economies. However,when the production technology progress is considered,with 9 percentage rise of TFP in Beijing,it can make Beijing GDP almost unchanged,but also can significantly improve Hebei,Tianjin,other provinces and municipalities of the country's GDP growth rate.
引文
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[4]李然,马萌.京津冀产业转移的行业选择及布局优化[J].经济问题,2016(1):124-129.
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[6]GOURANGE G D,JANAKI R R A,DOUGLAS R C,et al. Regional impacts of environmental regulations and technical change in the US forestry sector:a multi-regional CGE-analysis[J].Forest policy and economics,2005(7):25-38.
[7]OCHUODHO T O,LANTZ V A,LLOYD-SMITH P,et al. Regional economic impacts of climate change and adaptation in Canadian forests:a CGE modeling analysis[J].Forest policy and economics,2012(25):100-112.
[2]邢子政,马云泽.京津冀区域产业结构趋同倾向与协同调整之策[J].现代财经,2009(9):50-56.
[3]张贵,贾尚键,苏艳霞.生态系统视角下京津冀产业转移对接研究[J].中共天津市委党校学报,2014(4):105-112.
[4]李然,马萌.京津冀产业转移的行业选择及布局优化[J].经济问题,2016(1):124-129.
[5]陈岩,武义青.关于京津冀产业优化调整的思考[J].河北经贸大学学报(综合版),2014(12):84-87.
[6]GOURANGE G D,JANAKI R R A,DOUGLAS R C,et al. Regional impacts of environmental regulations and technical change in the US forestry sector:a multi-regional CGE-analysis[J].Forest policy and economics,2005(7):25-38.
[7]OCHUODHO T O,LANTZ V A,LLOYD-SMITH P,et al. Regional economic impacts of climate change and adaptation in Canadian forests:a CGE modeling analysis[J].Forest policy and economics,2012(25):100-112.