中国北方农牧交错带农业资源可持续利用水平演变及趋势预测——以乌兰察布市为例
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摘要
[目的]北方农牧交错带是我国典型的生态环境脆弱带,农业资源利用对该区域的生态环境具有重要影响。探寻适宜于该区域的农业资源监测指标体系,及时发现农业资源的变动状态与趋势,可为农业与环保部门制定管理措施提供参考依据。[方法]文章以内蒙古自治区乌兰察布市为例,从农业资源禀赋、农业生态压力和农业产出水平3个方面,选取15个评价指标,运用层次分析法和指数平滑法,对中国北方农牧交错带的农业资源可持续利用水平的演变与趋势进行分析预测。[结果]结果表明:农业资源禀赋指标组中土壤有机质含量和人均牧草地面积2个指标权重较大,土壤有机质含量下降是引起乌兰察布市农业资源禀赋指数下降的主要原因;农业生态压力指标组中载畜量和化肥负荷程度指标权重较大,人口密度、载畜量、耕地盐碱化程度的下降,减弱了干燥度和化肥负荷程度2个指标增长的不利影响,使乌兰察布市农业生态压力指数表现出下降趋势;农业产出指标组中人均农林牧渔业产值和农牧民人均可支配收入2个指标权重较大,2个指标的持续增长是引起农业产出指数增长的主要因素。[结论]乌兰察布市2001~2014年农业资源禀赋指数逐渐减小,且指数下降的趋势仍将延续,预计2018年降至2001年的51.21%;该市农业生态压力指数呈现波动下降趋势,预计2018年降至2001年的26.78%;该市农业产出指数逐渐增加,预计2018年增至2001年的183倍;该市农业资源可持续利用综合指数在2001~2007年呈逐渐下降的趋势,2008~2014年呈逐渐增加的趋势,预计将于2016年开始超出2001年的水平。
The Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China has a typical fragile ecological environment in China,the utilization of agricultural resources had important influences on the ecological environment. To find the suitable index system of agricultural resources and assess the chang trend of agricultural resourcesin this region could provide reference for agricultural and environmental protection. Taking Wulanchabu city,Inner Mongolia region as an example,this paper selected 15 evaluation indicatorsfrom three aspects of agricultural resources,agricultural ecological pressure and agricultural output level,and analyzed the evolution and trend ofagricultural resources for agriculture and animal husbandry in northern China with AHP and exponential smoothing methods. The results showed that agricultural resource endowment index decreased graduallyin the farming pastoral zone of Wulanchabu city during 2001~ 2014,and the downward trend would continueif the existing agricultural resources utilization remained unchanging. The agricultural ecological pressure index also decreased to 26. 78% in 2018,but the agricultural outputindex increased gradually. The comprehensive index of sustainable utilization of agricultural resources showed a downward trend during 2001 ~ 2007 and an increase trend during 2008 ~ 2014,which exceeded the level of the year 2001 in2016. Finally,it put forward some suggestions to Wulanchabu city,such as controlling the use of chemical fertilizers,using organic fertilizer toincreasesoil fertility,improving the performance of sustainable utilization of land resources,controlling and reducing the carrying capacity of population density,reducing agricultural ecological pressure,and broadening the channels of farmers' income,so as to relieve the excessive use of pressure on agricultural resources and increase farmers' income.
The Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China has a typical fragile ecological environment in China,the utilization of agricultural resources had important influences on the ecological environment. To find the suitable index system of agricultural resources and assess the chang trend of agricultural resourcesin this region could provide reference for agricultural and environmental protection. Taking Wulanchabu city,Inner Mongolia region as an example,this paper selected 15 evaluation indicatorsfrom three aspects of agricultural resources,agricultural ecological pressure and agricultural output level,and analyzed the evolution and trend ofagricultural resources for agriculture and animal husbandry in northern China with AHP and exponential smoothing methods. The results showed that agricultural resource endowment index decreased graduallyin the farming pastoral zone of Wulanchabu city during 2001~ 2014,and the downward trend would continueif the existing agricultural resources utilization remained unchanging. The agricultural ecological pressure index also decreased to 26. 78% in 2018,but the agricultural outputindex increased gradually. The comprehensive index of sustainable utilization of agricultural resources showed a downward trend during 2001 ~ 2007 and an increase trend during 2008 ~ 2014,which exceeded the level of the year 2001 in2016. Finally,it put forward some suggestions to Wulanchabu city,such as controlling the use of chemical fertilizers,using organic fertilizer toincreasesoil fertility,improving the performance of sustainable utilization of land resources,controlling and reducing the carrying capacity of population density,reducing agricultural ecological pressure,and broadening the channels of farmers' income,so as to relieve the excessive use of pressure on agricultural resources and increase farmers' income.
引文
[1]郭碧云,张广军.基于GIS和Markov模型的内蒙古农牧交错带土地利用变化.农业工程学报,2009,25(12):291~299
[2]Barrow.Land Degradation Land degradation:Development and Breakdown of Terrestrial Environments.New York:Cambridge University Press,1991
[3]牛文元.生态环境脆弱带ECOTONE的基本判定.生态学报,1989,(9):98~105
[4]孙武,侯玉,张勃.生态脆弱带波动性、人口压力、脆弱度之间的关系.生态学报,2000,20(3):369~373
[5]张立峰.华北农牧交错带生态恢复与经济发展的相悖与互依关系.草地学报,2004,12(1):70~74
[6]赵媛媛,何春阳,李晓兵,等.干旱化与土地利用变化对中国北方草地与农牧交错带耕地自然生产潜力的综合影响评价.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):123~135
[7]农业部.关于北方农牧交错带农业结构调整的指导意见(农计发[2016]96号).http://www.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/tzgg/tz/201611/t20161130_5383030.htm,2016
[8]刘军会,高吉喜.北方农牧交错带生态系统服务价值测算及变化.山地学报,2008,26(2):145~153
[9]苏金华,刘福英,王龙,等.草地建设是农牧交错带生态农业建设的关键环节——内蒙古阴山北麓生态农业建设的实践与启示.内蒙古环境保护,2001,13(4):20~22
[10]李艳华,许月卿,郭洪峰.西部生态脆弱区农用地质量等别限制因素及提升策略研究.中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(1):67~74
[11]王萨仁娜.基于GIS的内蒙古农牧交错带荒漠化近期动态变化及影响因素分析.呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2004
[12]孙雪萍,苏筠.降水约束条件下的粮食生产适应度评价——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例.干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(3):234~239
[13]侯智惠,梅连杰,侯安宏,等.内蒙古农业资源配置效率分析.中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(3):71~77
[14]侯智惠,梅连杰,逄焕成,等.内蒙古农业资源利用区域差异分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(1):160~166
[15]张培峰,胡远满,赵明华.北方农牧交错带经济发展与生态环境协调前景预测.中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(3):150~154
[16]其木格,孙艳,海山.内蒙古察哈尔右翼后旗大九号村人地关系研究.内蒙古农业大学学报,2011,32(1):112~117
[17]陆添超,康凯.熵值法和层次分析法在权重确定中的应用.电脑编程技巧与维护,2009,22:19~21
[18]李超,刘亚南,潘志华.北方农牧交错带气候变化的时空特征研究.会议论文集《S5全球典型干旱半干旱地区气候变化及其影响》,2012
[2]Barrow.Land Degradation Land degradation:Development and Breakdown of Terrestrial Environments.New York:Cambridge University Press,1991
[3]牛文元.生态环境脆弱带ECOTONE的基本判定.生态学报,1989,(9):98~105
[4]孙武,侯玉,张勃.生态脆弱带波动性、人口压力、脆弱度之间的关系.生态学报,2000,20(3):369~373
[5]张立峰.华北农牧交错带生态恢复与经济发展的相悖与互依关系.草地学报,2004,12(1):70~74
[6]赵媛媛,何春阳,李晓兵,等.干旱化与土地利用变化对中国北方草地与农牧交错带耕地自然生产潜力的综合影响评价.自然资源学报,2009,24(1):123~135
[7]农业部.关于北方农牧交错带农业结构调整的指导意见(农计发[2016]96号).http://www.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/tzgg/tz/201611/t20161130_5383030.htm,2016
[8]刘军会,高吉喜.北方农牧交错带生态系统服务价值测算及变化.山地学报,2008,26(2):145~153
[9]苏金华,刘福英,王龙,等.草地建设是农牧交错带生态农业建设的关键环节——内蒙古阴山北麓生态农业建设的实践与启示.内蒙古环境保护,2001,13(4):20~22
[10]李艳华,许月卿,郭洪峰.西部生态脆弱区农用地质量等别限制因素及提升策略研究.中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(1):67~74
[11]王萨仁娜.基于GIS的内蒙古农牧交错带荒漠化近期动态变化及影响因素分析.呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2004
[12]孙雪萍,苏筠.降水约束条件下的粮食生产适应度评价——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例.干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(3):234~239
[13]侯智惠,梅连杰,侯安宏,等.内蒙古农业资源配置效率分析.中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(3):71~77
[14]侯智惠,梅连杰,逄焕成,等.内蒙古农业资源利用区域差异分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(1):160~166
[15]张培峰,胡远满,赵明华.北方农牧交错带经济发展与生态环境协调前景预测.中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(3):150~154
[16]其木格,孙艳,海山.内蒙古察哈尔右翼后旗大九号村人地关系研究.内蒙古农业大学学报,2011,32(1):112~117
[17]陆添超,康凯.熵值法和层次分析法在权重确定中的应用.电脑编程技巧与维护,2009,22:19~21
[18]李超,刘亚南,潘志华.北方农牧交错带气候变化的时空特征研究.会议论文集《S5全球典型干旱半干旱地区气候变化及其影响》,2012