基于灰色优势分析的中国农业投入产出水平研究
|
摘要
农业投入产出水平可以从2个方面进行衡量,一是农业投入产出的规模水平;二是农业投入产出的效益水平。灰色优势分析能够在排除主观因素干扰的情况下,对农业投入产出水平评价指标进行赋权,提升了评价体系的可信度。农业产出指标和投入指标的关联序分别表征了各评价指标在衡量农业投入产出水平时的代表性强弱。经测算,1981—2010年,中国农业投入产出规模指数总体上不断升高,但1995年以前主要依靠产出拉动,此后主要依靠投入拉动;农业投入产出效益指数先正后负,且呈"S"形波动,意味着中国农业生产发展已先后摆脱"高效益、低水平"和"高水平、低效益"的非良性状态,开始呈现出"高效益、高水平"的良性发展势头。
Agricultural input-output level can be measured from 2 aspects, the first is the level of agriculturalinput-output scale; second is the level of agricultural input-output effectiveness. Grey superior analysisexcluding subjective factors in the case of agricultural input-output evaluation indicators of empowerment, thismethod can enhance the credibility of the evaluation system. The associated sequence of evaluation reflects thestrength of the representation of the evaluation of indicators to measure the level of agricultural input-outputlevel. After calculation, in the years 1981-2010, the scale index of Chinese agricultural input-output ingeneral continues to rise, but mainly relies on output pull before 1995, after which mainly relies on investedpulling; the efficiency index of Chinese agricultural input-output is the first positive after negative andpresented the‘S'shape fluctuations, this indicates that China's development of agricultural production has toget rid of the‘high-efficiency, low-level'and‘high-level, low-benefit'non-benign state, and shows a "high-efficiency, high-level" healthy development momentum.
Agricultural input-output level can be measured from 2 aspects, the first is the level of agriculturalinput-output scale; second is the level of agricultural input-output effectiveness. Grey superior analysisexcluding subjective factors in the case of agricultural input-output evaluation indicators of empowerment, thismethod can enhance the credibility of the evaluation system. The associated sequence of evaluation reflects thestrength of the representation of the evaluation of indicators to measure the level of agricultural input-outputlevel. After calculation, in the years 1981-2010, the scale index of Chinese agricultural input-output ingeneral continues to rise, but mainly relies on output pull before 1995, after which mainly relies on investedpulling; the efficiency index of Chinese agricultural input-output is the first positive after negative andpresented the‘S'shape fluctuations, this indicates that China's development of agricultural production has toget rid of the‘high-efficiency, low-level'and‘high-level, low-benefit'non-benign state, and shows a "high-efficiency, high-level" healthy development momentum.
引文
[1]冯子华,覃炳英.海南省农业投人产出的定量评价[J].热带作物学报,1994,15(1):119-125.
[2]林玉蕊.农业投入产出生产函数及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(13):102-108.
[3]张立超,瞿印礼.中国农业投入产出的关系研究[J].统计与决策,2010(14):79-80.
[4]史明瑛,朱云鹃.安徽省农业投入产出效果分析[J].运筹与管理,1999,8(2):62-66.
[5]陈健芬.中国沿海发达地区财政农业投入产出的弹性分析[J].经济纵横,2011(3):77-79.
[6]冯启磊,王红瑞,白颖,等.中国农业产出水平的影响因素分析[J].安徽师范大学学报:自然科学版,2010,33(3):276-280.
[7]王学超.关于农业投入产出的回归分析模型[J].经济师,2009(2):265-266.
[8]张文红.基于计量模型的西部农业投入产出效率研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(4):104-108.
[9]孔朝莉,杨启昌.农业投入产出变量的主成分回归分析模型[J].鞍山师范学院学报,2006,8(4):11-14.
[10]顾俊龙.农业投入与产出结构变化及影响因素分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2006,28(5):67-71.
[11]陈道平.基于典型相关的中国农业投入与产出分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(22):13760-13761,13763.
[12]徐建中,王莉静,赵忠伟.基于灰色关联分析的区域主导产业选择研究[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(9):51-53.
[13]吴凯,卢布,袁璋.区域农业结构的灰色关联分析与优势产业的发展[J].中国农学通报,2006(10):86-88.
[14]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用(第五版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:5.
[15]李宝玉,李刚,高春雨.环渤海现代农业指标评价体系的构建与发展水平评价[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(11):133-139.
[2]林玉蕊.农业投入产出生产函数及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(13):102-108.
[3]张立超,瞿印礼.中国农业投入产出的关系研究[J].统计与决策,2010(14):79-80.
[4]史明瑛,朱云鹃.安徽省农业投入产出效果分析[J].运筹与管理,1999,8(2):62-66.
[5]陈健芬.中国沿海发达地区财政农业投入产出的弹性分析[J].经济纵横,2011(3):77-79.
[6]冯启磊,王红瑞,白颖,等.中国农业产出水平的影响因素分析[J].安徽师范大学学报:自然科学版,2010,33(3):276-280.
[7]王学超.关于农业投入产出的回归分析模型[J].经济师,2009(2):265-266.
[8]张文红.基于计量模型的西部农业投入产出效率研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(4):104-108.
[9]孔朝莉,杨启昌.农业投入产出变量的主成分回归分析模型[J].鞍山师范学院学报,2006,8(4):11-14.
[10]顾俊龙.农业投入与产出结构变化及影响因素分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2006,28(5):67-71.
[11]陈道平.基于典型相关的中国农业投入与产出分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(22):13760-13761,13763.
[12]徐建中,王莉静,赵忠伟.基于灰色关联分析的区域主导产业选择研究[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(9):51-53.
[13]吴凯,卢布,袁璋.区域农业结构的灰色关联分析与优势产业的发展[J].中国农学通报,2006(10):86-88.
[14]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用(第五版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:5.
[15]李宝玉,李刚,高春雨.环渤海现代农业指标评价体系的构建与发展水平评价[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(11):133-139.