江苏省农业投入产出实证分析（英文）
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摘要
[目的]为探索江苏农业投入与产出的相互关系,以及各类投入要素对农业产出的影响程度。[方法]运用因子分析法和回归分析法对1990~2012年间江苏省农业生产投入与产出情况进行定量化分析和评价。[结果]因子分析结果表明,90年代以来江苏农业投入产出综合效率呈持续上升趋势,提取出农林牧渔业投入产出、种植业投入产出和粮食生产投入产出3个主因子,其得分分别反映了20多年江苏农林牧渔业、种植业和粮食生产投入产出效率的变化过程。回归分析结果表明,对农业产出3项指标有显著影响的农业投入要素各不相同,并通过回归参数估计计算出各农业投入要素对3个产出指标的影响程度。[结论]该研究为江苏农业的投入结构的决策提供理论依据。
[Objective] The aim was to explore interrelationship between agricultural input and output in Jiangsu and the influence degrees of input factors on agricultural output. [Method] Quantitative analysis and evaluation were made on agricultural input and output in Jiangsu during 1990-2012 as per factor analysis and regression analysis. [Result] The result of factor analysis showed that since the 1990 s, the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural input/output in Jiangsu was growing and input/output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, crop farming, and of food production were extracted, whose scores reflect the changes of input/output efficiencies in terms of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, crop farming and food production in the two decades. The results of regression analysis indicated that the effects of the three indices on agricultural output tended to be volatile and the influence degrees were concluded also by regression parameters. [Conclusion]The research provides theoretical references for agricultural input/output structure in Jiangsu Province.
[Objective] The aim was to explore interrelationship between agricultural input and output in Jiangsu and the influence degrees of input factors on agricultural output. [Method] Quantitative analysis and evaluation were made on agricultural input and output in Jiangsu during 1990-2012 as per factor analysis and regression analysis. [Result] The result of factor analysis showed that since the 1990 s, the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural input/output in Jiangsu was growing and input/output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, crop farming, and of food production were extracted, whose scores reflect the changes of input/output efficiencies in terms of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, crop farming and food production in the two decades. The results of regression analysis indicated that the effects of the three indices on agricultural output tended to be volatile and the influence degrees were concluded also by regression parameters. [Conclusion]The research provides theoretical references for agricultural input/output structure in Jiangsu Province.
引文
[1]JIA HK(伽红凯),WANG SJ(王树进).Elasticity of agricultural production factors in Jiangsu Province(江苏省农业生产要素弹性分析)[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)(华南农业大学学报(社会科学版)),2013,12(3):33-41.
[2]SHI MY(史明瑛),ZHU YJ(朱云鹃).Analysis of agricultural input-output effect of Anhui Province(安徽省农业投入产出效果分析)[J].Operations research and Management Science(运筹与管理),1999(2):62-66.
[3]KONG CL(孔朝莉),YANG QC(杨启昌).The regression models of principle component analysis on in-output variables in agriculture(农业投入产出变量的主成分回归分析模型)[J].Journal of Anshan Normal University(鞍山师范学院学报),2006(8):11-14.
[4]ZHANG H(张浩),CHEN Z(陈昭).An analysis on the factors’contribution ratio to China’s agriculture-sutdy based on unstable panel data model(中国农业经济增长的要素贡献度研究—基于分省非稳定面板的实证分析)[J].South China Journal of Economics(南方经济),2008(1):61-75.
[5]CHEN DP(陈道平).Analysis of input and output of China’s agriculture based on canonical correlation(基于典型相关的我国农业投入与产出分析)[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences(安徽农业科学),2011,39(22):13760-13761,13763.
[6]WANG Y(王云).Gray relevance analysis of investments and growth of agriculture(农业投入与农业增长的灰色关联分析)[J].Contemporary Economy&Management(当代经济管理),2010,32(10):46-49.
[7]LI TF(李天芳).Data envelopment analysis of agricultural productivity in Jiangsu province(江苏省农业生产效率的DEA分析)[J].Rural Economy and Science(农村经济与科技),2014,25(5):35-37.
[8]Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics(江苏省统计局).Jiangsu statistical yearbook(江苏统计年鉴)[EB/OL].(2013-11-01)[2014-08-01]http://www.jssb.gov.cn/2013nj/indexc.htm.
[9]XUE W(薛薇).SPSS statistics and analysis and application(the 2ndedition)(SPSS统计分析方法及应用(第2版))[M].Beijing:Publishing House Of Electronics Industry(北京:电子工业出版社),2009.
[10]YAO LH(姚丽虹),ZHAO Y(赵阳).Analysis of factors influencing farmers’income in Guangdong with cases(广东农民收入影响因素的实证分析)[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences(广东农业科学),2009(7):280-283.
[11]YAO YK(姚於康).Issue and its countermeasures of food grain security of Jiangsu province(江苏省粮食安全问题及其对策)[J].Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi(江西农业学报),2012,24(1):191-194.
[2]SHI MY(史明瑛),ZHU YJ(朱云鹃).Analysis of agricultural input-output effect of Anhui Province(安徽省农业投入产出效果分析)[J].Operations research and Management Science(运筹与管理),1999(2):62-66.
[3]KONG CL(孔朝莉),YANG QC(杨启昌).The regression models of principle component analysis on in-output variables in agriculture(农业投入产出变量的主成分回归分析模型)[J].Journal of Anshan Normal University(鞍山师范学院学报),2006(8):11-14.
[4]ZHANG H(张浩),CHEN Z(陈昭).An analysis on the factors’contribution ratio to China’s agriculture-sutdy based on unstable panel data model(中国农业经济增长的要素贡献度研究—基于分省非稳定面板的实证分析)[J].South China Journal of Economics(南方经济),2008(1):61-75.
[5]CHEN DP(陈道平).Analysis of input and output of China’s agriculture based on canonical correlation(基于典型相关的我国农业投入与产出分析)[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences(安徽农业科学),2011,39(22):13760-13761,13763.
[6]WANG Y(王云).Gray relevance analysis of investments and growth of agriculture(农业投入与农业增长的灰色关联分析)[J].Contemporary Economy&Management(当代经济管理),2010,32(10):46-49.
[7]LI TF(李天芳).Data envelopment analysis of agricultural productivity in Jiangsu province(江苏省农业生产效率的DEA分析)[J].Rural Economy and Science(农村经济与科技),2014,25(5):35-37.
[8]Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics(江苏省统计局).Jiangsu statistical yearbook(江苏统计年鉴)[EB/OL].(2013-11-01)[2014-08-01]http://www.jssb.gov.cn/2013nj/indexc.htm.
[9]XUE W(薛薇).SPSS statistics and analysis and application(the 2ndedition)(SPSS统计分析方法及应用(第2版))[M].Beijing:Publishing House Of Electronics Industry(北京:电子工业出版社),2009.
[10]YAO LH(姚丽虹),ZHAO Y(赵阳).Analysis of factors influencing farmers’income in Guangdong with cases(广东农民收入影响因素的实证分析)[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences(广东农业科学),2009(7):280-283.
[11]YAO YK(姚於康).Issue and its countermeasures of food grain security of Jiangsu province(江苏省粮食安全问题及其对策)[J].Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi(江西农业学报),2012,24(1):191-194.