金融发展与新型城镇化互动效应研究——基于2004—2015年276个地级市数据的异质性面板Granger因果检验
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摘要
基于2004—2015年276个地级市面板数据,使用熵值法测算各地区新型城镇化综合指数,并选用异质性面板Granger因果检验这一全新方法对金融发展与新型城镇化的互动关系进行考察。结果表明:金融发展整体与新型城镇化形成了良好互动关系。但不同地区而言,金融效率与新型城镇化在东部和中部互动关系强于东北和西部,除西部外,金融规模推动了新型城镇化。不同城市规模而言,金融效率在超大城市、特大城市和大城市推进了新型城镇化,而在中小城市,金融规模和金融效率与新型城镇化无因果关系。因此,发挥金融发展对新型城镇化的推动作用,应根据区域特点和城市规模调整金融发展对策。
Based on the panel data of 276 prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2015, the new index of urbanization is calculated by using the entropy method. The new method of heterogeneous panel Granger causality test is used to study the interaction between financial development and new urbanization Inspection. The results show that the financial scale and the financial efficiency have a good interaction with the new urbanization. However, in terms of different regions, the interaction of financial efficiency and new urbanization are strong in the eastern and central regions, but weak in the northeast and west regions. The financial scale has promoted the new urbanization except the western regions. In terms of the size of different cities, financial efficiency has promoted new urbanization in large cities, mega-cities and large cities, but in small and medium-sized cities, whether financial or financial efficiency have no causal relationship with new urbanization.
Based on the panel data of 276 prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2015, the new index of urbanization is calculated by using the entropy method. The new method of heterogeneous panel Granger causality test is used to study the interaction between financial development and new urbanization Inspection. The results show that the financial scale and the financial efficiency have a good interaction with the new urbanization. However, in terms of different regions, the interaction of financial efficiency and new urbanization are strong in the eastern and central regions, but weak in the northeast and west regions. The financial scale has promoted the new urbanization except the western regions. In terms of the size of different cities, financial efficiency has promoted new urbanization in large cities, mega-cities and large cities, but in small and medium-sized cities, whether financial or financial efficiency have no causal relationship with new urbanization.
引文
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[2]Bertrand R.National urbanization policy in developing countries[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1981.
[3]Henderson J V.How urban concentration affects economic growth[R].Washington DC:The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2000:1-42.
[4]张许颖,黄匡时.以人为核心的新型城镇化的基本内涵、主要指标和政策框架[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(S3):280-283.
[5]Marton A M.China’s spatial economic development:Regional transformation in the lower Yangzi Delta[M].London:Routledge,2000.
[6]Fan C C.Population change and regional development in China:Insights based on the 2000 census[J].Eurasian Geography&Economics,2002,43(6):425-442.
[7]Chang M,Fu T,Chen J.Urban water investment and financing in China[R].London:Iwa Publishing,2004.
[8]Mostafavi A,Abraham D,Vives A.Exploratory analysis of public perceptions of innovative financing for infrastructure systems in the U.S[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy&Practice,2014,70(8):10-23.
[9]Wurgler J.Financial markets and the allocation of capital[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2000,58(1):187-214.
[10]Brown J R,Martinsson G,Petersen B C.Do financing constraints matter for R&D?[J].European Economic Review,2012,56(8):1512-1529.
[11]Love I.Financial development and financing constraints:International evidence from the structural investment model[J].Review of Financial Studies,2003,16(3):765-791.
[12]陈雨露.中国新型城镇化建设中的金融支持[J].经济研究,2013(2):10-12.
[13]罗琼.中国金融发展与新型城镇化建设的关系实证分析[J].经济地理,2016(9):66-71.
[14]陈志刚,吴腾,桂立.金融发展是城市化的动力吗——1997—2 0 1 3年中国省级面板数据的实证证据[J].经济学家,2 0 1 5(8):80-89.
[15]Dumitrescu E I,Hurlin C.Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels[J].Economic Modelling,2012,29(4):1450-1460.
[16]唐未兵,唐谭岭.中部地区新型城镇化和金融支持的耦合作用研究[J].中国软科学,2017(3):140-151.
[17]Mc Kinnon R I.Money and capital in economic development[M].Washington DC:The Brookings Institution,1973.
[18]Goldsmith R W.Financial structure and development[J].Studies in Comparative Economics,1969,70(4):31-45.
[19]陈志刚,王皖君.金融发展与中国的收入分配:1986—2005[J].财贸经济,2009(5):36-41.
[20]王志强,孙刚.中国金融发展规模、结构、效率与经济增长关系的经验分析[J].管理世界,2003(7):13-20.
[21]Levin A,Lin C F,Chu C S J.Unit root tests in panel data:Asymptotic and finite-sample properties[J].Journal of Econometrics,2002,108(1):1-24.
[22]Im K S,Pesaran M H,Shin Y.Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels[J].Journal of Econometrics,2003,115(1):53-74.