柑橘生产的要素替代关系及增长路径研究——基于主产区面板数据的实证分析
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摘要
为探究柑橘生产的要素替代关系及增长路径,基于我国7个主产区1997—2014年柑橘成本收益的面板数据,采用超越对数生产函数对柑橘生产要素之间的替代关系进行实证分析,在此基础上探讨我国柑橘生产的技术进步与增长路径。研究得出:劳动力和农业机械的产出弹性相对比较稳定,化肥和其他要素的产出弹性波动较大;化肥、农业机械与其他要素对劳动力的替代关系较为显著,化肥与农业机械对其他要素的替代关系较为稳定,化肥与农业机械要素之间还存在一定的互补关系;柑橘生产过程中劳动节约型技术进步明显,土地节约型技术进步也不断发展,未来柑橘生产的增长路径选择应该以节约劳动的农业机械技术导向为主,以节约土地的生物化学技术导向为辅。最后,基于研究结论得到的启示包括:根据生产要素禀赋优势来选择柑橘技术进步的发展方向;重点发展省力省工的柑橘生产机械技术;合理使用化肥、农药、农膜、无病毒苗木等土地节约型的生物化学技术。
To explore key factor substitution and growth path of citrus production based on the panel date on the costbenefit of citrus from 1997 to 2014in seven main production areas in China.An empirical analysis of the substitution relationship among the citrus production factors to investigate the technical progress and growth path of citrus production in China was conducted by using transcendental logarithmic production function.The results showed that:The output elasticity of labor force and agricultural machinery was relatively stable,and the output elasticity of chemical fertilizer and other factors was fluctuant;The substitution relationships of chemical fertilizer to labor,agricultural machinery to labor,and other factors to labor force were significant,The substitution relationships of chemical fertilizer and agricultural machinery to other factors were stable;There also existed a complementary relationship between fertilizer and agricultural machinery factors;In the process of citrus production,the labor-saving technical progress was obvious,and the land-saving technical progress is developing constantly.The future growth path of citrus production should be mainly in the direction of labor-saving agricultural machinery technology and aided in the direction of landsaving biochemical technology.In conclusion,the choice of the development direction of citrus technical progress shouldbe made bases on its endowment advantage of production factors;Focuses should be on the development of laborsaving citrus production machinery technology and reasonable application of the land-saving biochemical technology including chemical fertilizer,pesticide,plastic film,and free-virus seedling wood.
To explore key factor substitution and growth path of citrus production based on the panel date on the costbenefit of citrus from 1997 to 2014in seven main production areas in China.An empirical analysis of the substitution relationship among the citrus production factors to investigate the technical progress and growth path of citrus production in China was conducted by using transcendental logarithmic production function.The results showed that:The output elasticity of labor force and agricultural machinery was relatively stable,and the output elasticity of chemical fertilizer and other factors was fluctuant;The substitution relationships of chemical fertilizer to labor,agricultural machinery to labor,and other factors to labor force were significant,The substitution relationships of chemical fertilizer and agricultural machinery to other factors were stable;There also existed a complementary relationship between fertilizer and agricultural machinery factors;In the process of citrus production,the labor-saving technical progress was obvious,and the land-saving technical progress is developing constantly.The future growth path of citrus production should be mainly in the direction of labor-saving agricultural machinery technology and aided in the direction of landsaving biochemical technology.In conclusion,the choice of the development direction of citrus technical progress shouldbe made bases on its endowment advantage of production factors;Focuses should be on the development of laborsaving citrus production machinery technology and reasonable application of the land-saving biochemical technology including chemical fertilizer,pesticide,plastic film,and free-virus seedling wood.
引文
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[14]李谷成,梁玲,尹朝静,冯中朝.劳动力转移损害了油菜生产吗?:基于要素产出弹性和替代弹性的实证[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2015(1):7-13Li G C,Liang L,Yin C J,Feng Z C.Did labor transfer harm production of rapeseeds in China?:Based on factor production elasticity and substitution elasticity[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University:Social Sciences Edition,2015(1):7-13(in Chinese)
[15]尹朝静,范丽霞,李谷成,吴丽丽.劳动力成本上升背景下油菜生产发展方式转型研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2015(6):297-304Yin C J,Fan L X,Li G C,Wu L L.Research on the transformation of rape production mode as the growth of labor cost[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2015(6):297-304(in Chinese)
[16]胡浩,杨泳冰.要素替代视角下农户化肥施用研究:基于全国农村固定观察点农户数据[J].农业技术经济,2015(3):84-91Hu H,Yang Y B.Study on farmer’s application of chemical fertilizer from the perspective of factor substitution:Based on the household data of national rural fixed observation point[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2015(3):84-91(in Chinese)
[17]易福金,刘莹.劳动力价格上升与江、浙水稻播种面积相悖变化:基于替代弹性的解释[J].统计与信息论坛,2016(4):87-92Yi F J,Liu Y.The paradox of rice planted area changes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang:An interpretation based on elasticity of substitution[J].Statistics&Information Forum,2016(4):87-92(in Chinese)
[18]王林辉,袁礼.要素丰裕度、技术进步偏向性与中国农业部门要素收入分配结构[J].东北师大学报:哲学社会科学版,2015(1):70-80Wang L H,Yuan L.Factor abundance,directed technical change and the factor income distribution structure of agricultural in China[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences,2015(1):70-80(in Chinese)
[2]Nghiep L T.The structure and changes of technology in prewar Japanese agriculture[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,61(4):687-693
[3]Kuroda Y.The production structure and demand for labor in postwar Japanese agriculture,1952—1982[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1987,69(2):328-337
[4]Khatri Y,Thirtle C G,Townsend R F.Testing the induced innovation hypothesis:An application to UK agriculture,1953—90[J].Economics of Innovation and New Technology,1998,6(1):1-28
[5]何爱,徐宗玲.菲律宾农业发展中的诱致性技术变革偏向:1970—2005[J].中国农村经济,2010(2):84-91,95He A,Xu Z L.The induced technological change biases in Philippine agricultural development:1970—2005[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2010(2):84-91,95(in Chinese)
[6]Binswanger H P.A cost function approach to the measurement of elasticities of factor demand and elasticities of substitution[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1974,56(1):377-386
[7]林毅夫,蔡昉.我国经济改革顺序的思考和突破口的选择[J].经济社会体制比较,1989(3):1-7Lin Y F,Cai F.The thinking of China’s economic reform order and choice of breakthrough[J].Comparative Economic&Social Systems,1989(3):1-7(in Chinese)
[8]全炯振.中国农业的增长路径:1952—2008年[J].农业经济问题,2010(9):10-16Quan J Z.China’s agricultural growth path:1952—2008[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2010(9):10-16(in Chinese)
[9]吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.要素禀赋变化与中国农业增长路径选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(8):144-152Wu L L,Li G C,Zhou X S.Change of factor endowment and China agricultural growth path selection[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015(8):144-152(in Chinese)
[10]周晓时,李谷成,吴丽丽.转型期我国农业增长路径与技术进步方向的实证研究:基于大陆28省份的经验证据[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2015(5):40-47Zhou X S,Li G C,Wu L L.Study on agricultural growth paths and direction of technical progress during transition:An empirical test based on 28provinces in mainland China[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University:Social Sciences Edition,2015(5):40-47(in Chinese)
[11]魏金义,祁春节.农业技术进步与要素禀赋的耦合协调度测算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(1):90-96Wei J Y,Qi C J.Coupling coordination degree analysis of the agricultural technology progress and factor endowment in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015(1):90-96(in Chinese)
[12]尹朝静,范丽霞,李谷成.要素替代弹性与中国农业增长[J].华南农业大学学报:社会科学版,2014(2):16-23Yin C J,Fan L X,Li G C.Elasticity of substitution of factor and China’s agricultural growth[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University:Social Sciences Edition,2014(2):16-23(in Chinese)
[13]赵文,程杰.农业生产方式转变与农户经济激励效应[J].中国农村经济,2014(2):4-19Zhao W,Cheng J.Changes in modes of agricultural production and the economic incentive effects to farmers’households in China[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014(2):4-19(in Chinese)
[14]李谷成,梁玲,尹朝静,冯中朝.劳动力转移损害了油菜生产吗?:基于要素产出弹性和替代弹性的实证[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2015(1):7-13Li G C,Liang L,Yin C J,Feng Z C.Did labor transfer harm production of rapeseeds in China?:Based on factor production elasticity and substitution elasticity[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University:Social Sciences Edition,2015(1):7-13(in Chinese)
[15]尹朝静,范丽霞,李谷成,吴丽丽.劳动力成本上升背景下油菜生产发展方式转型研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2015(6):297-304Yin C J,Fan L X,Li G C,Wu L L.Research on the transformation of rape production mode as the growth of labor cost[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2015(6):297-304(in Chinese)
[16]胡浩,杨泳冰.要素替代视角下农户化肥施用研究:基于全国农村固定观察点农户数据[J].农业技术经济,2015(3):84-91Hu H,Yang Y B.Study on farmer’s application of chemical fertilizer from the perspective of factor substitution:Based on the household data of national rural fixed observation point[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2015(3):84-91(in Chinese)
[17]易福金,刘莹.劳动力价格上升与江、浙水稻播种面积相悖变化:基于替代弹性的解释[J].统计与信息论坛,2016(4):87-92Yi F J,Liu Y.The paradox of rice planted area changes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang:An interpretation based on elasticity of substitution[J].Statistics&Information Forum,2016(4):87-92(in Chinese)
[18]王林辉,袁礼.要素丰裕度、技术进步偏向性与中国农业部门要素收入分配结构[J].东北师大学报:哲学社会科学版,2015(1):70-80Wang L H,Yuan L.Factor abundance,directed technical change and the factor income distribution structure of agricultural in China[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences,2015(1):70-80(in Chinese)