要素价格变化对农业技术进步及要素替代的影响——以玉米生产为例
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摘要
基于中国20个省(市、区)1985—2015年面板数据,运用超越对数成本函数及影子替代弹性方法实证分析了要素相对价格变化对玉米生产技术进步及要素替代的影响,结果表明:要素相对价格的变化诱导了玉米生产的要素结构调整,从而导致成本结构发生变化;玉米生产技术进步是偏向的,具体体现在劳动使用型、机械使用型和化肥节约型的技术并存;在劳动力价格不断上升的背景下,机械、化肥与劳动力存在明显替代关系,但受技术条件和农艺特性等因素制约,机械对劳动力的进一步替代受到限制。
Based on panel data in China's 20 provinces from 1985 to 2015, this paper empirically analyzes factors related to price change influencing the technological progress and the factors substitution on corn production, which is based on the translog cost function and shadow elasticity of substitution method. The results show that: Changes in the relative prices of factor have induced structural adjustment in the structure of corn production, which has changed cost share. Corn production technological progress is biased, mainly demonstrating the co-existence of labor-using, machinery-using and fertilizer-saving. Under the condition of rising labor wage, there are obviously alternative relationships among machinery, fertilizer and labor. However, due to the restriction of technical conditions and agronomic characteristics, the further substitution of machinery for the labor force is limited.
Based on panel data in China's 20 provinces from 1985 to 2015, this paper empirically analyzes factors related to price change influencing the technological progress and the factors substitution on corn production, which is based on the translog cost function and shadow elasticity of substitution method. The results show that: Changes in the relative prices of factor have induced structural adjustment in the structure of corn production, which has changed cost share. Corn production technological progress is biased, mainly demonstrating the co-existence of labor-using, machinery-using and fertilizer-saving. Under the condition of rising labor wage, there are obviously alternative relationships among machinery, fertilizer and labor. However, due to the restriction of technical conditions and agronomic characteristics, the further substitution of machinery for the labor force is limited.
引文
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[15]郝枫.超越对数函数要素替代弹性公式修正与估计方法比较[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(4):88-105.
[16]吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究——基于劳动力成本上升的背景[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2016(3):140-148.
[17]陈苏,胡浩.不同农业政策对中国农户粮食生产决策影响的实证研究[J].农业经济与管理,2017,3(43):37-47.
[18]Zellner A.An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1962,57(298),348-368.
[19]戴景瑞.我国玉米生产发展的前景及对策[J].作物杂志,1998(5):6-11.
[20]王崇桃,李少昆,韩伯棠.玉米产量潜力实现的限制因素的参与式评估[J].中国软科学,2006(7):53-59.
[21]王美艳.农民工还能返回农业吗?——来自全国农产品成本收益调查数据的分析[J].中国农村观察,2011(1):20-30.
[22]杨进,钟甫宁,陈志钢,等.农村劳动力价格、人口结构变化对粮食种植结构的影响[J].管理世界,2016(1):78-87.
[23]陈飞.我国粮食生产的技术推进模式及影响机制[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(7):147-160.
[24]胡浩,杨泳冰.要素替代视角下农户化肥施用研究——基于全国农村固定观察点农户数据[J].农业技术经济,2015(3):84-90.
[2]Hayami,Ruttan V W.Factor prices and technical changes in agricultural development:The United States and Japan,1880~1960[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1970,78(5):1115-1141.
[3]胡瑞法,黄季焜.农业生产投入要素结构变化与农业技术发展方向[J].中国农村观察,2001(6):9-16.
[4]吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.要素禀赋变化与中国农业增长路径选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(8):144-152.
[5]刘英基.有偏技术进步、替代弹性与粮食生产要素组合变动[J].软科学,2017,31(4):27-30.
[6]应瑞瑶,郑旭媛.资源禀赋、要素替代与农业生产经营方式转型——以苏、浙粮食生产为例[J].农业经济问题,2013(12):15-24.
[7]李首涵.中国玉米生产技术效率、技术进步与要素替代——基于超对数随机前沿生产函数的分析[J].科技与经济,2015,28(6):52-57.
[8]高建凯.中国15个主产省区玉米生产技术效率研究[J].西部论坛,2013,23(6):69-75.
[9]乔丹,陆迁.不同生态类型区玉米生产技术效率及有偏演进模式[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,15(5):28-36.
[10]王晓兵,许迪,侯玲玲.玉米生产的机械化及机械劳动力替代效应研究——基于省级面板数据的分析[J].农业技术经济,2016(6):4-12.
[11]Hicks J R.The Theory of Wages[M].London:Macmilan,1932.
[12]Binswanger H P.The measurement of technological change biases with many factors of production[J].American Economic Review,1974(6):964-976.
[13]Kuroda Y.The production structure and demand for labor in postwar Japanese agriculture,1952-1982[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1987,69(2):328-337.
[14]Stevenson R.Measuring technological bias[J].American Economic Review,1980,70(1):162-173.
[15]郝枫.超越对数函数要素替代弹性公式修正与估计方法比较[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(4):88-105.
[16]吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究——基于劳动力成本上升的背景[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2016(3):140-148.
[17]陈苏,胡浩.不同农业政策对中国农户粮食生产决策影响的实证研究[J].农业经济与管理,2017,3(43):37-47.
[18]Zellner A.An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1962,57(298),348-368.
[19]戴景瑞.我国玉米生产发展的前景及对策[J].作物杂志,1998(5):6-11.
[20]王崇桃,李少昆,韩伯棠.玉米产量潜力实现的限制因素的参与式评估[J].中国软科学,2006(7):53-59.
[21]王美艳.农民工还能返回农业吗?——来自全国农产品成本收益调查数据的分析[J].中国农村观察,2011(1):20-30.
[22]杨进,钟甫宁,陈志钢,等.农村劳动力价格、人口结构变化对粮食种植结构的影响[J].管理世界,2016(1):78-87.
[23]陈飞.我国粮食生产的技术推进模式及影响机制[J].数学的实践与认识,2014(7):147-160.
[24]胡浩,杨泳冰.要素替代视角下农户化肥施用研究——基于全国农村固定观察点农户数据[J].农业技术经济,2015(3):84-90.