东北旱作区农业生态系统协同发展与权衡分析
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摘要
随着传统农业向现代农业过渡,农业已由单一的生产功能向多功能方向转变,全面评价农业生态系统的协同性对区域可持续发展具有指导意义。本文基于2005—2015年东北旱作区85县市的社会经济数据和土壤属性数据,应用协同模型和统计参数均方根误差(RMSE)分析了不同时段东北旱作区农业生态系统发展的协同性及农业生产、生活和生态功能之间权衡关系的时空演变特征。结果表明:1)2005—2015年,东北旱作区农业生态系统综合协同度下降0.12,整体处于低度协同水平;区域农业生产功能和生态功能协同度分别下降0.03、0.45,而农业生活功能协同度小幅上升。除辽宁省旱作区外,吉林、黑龙江省旱作区农业生态系统协同度均明显下降,表明区域农业生态系统的生产功能、生活功能及生态功能之间的协同性向无序方向演变。2)研究区农业生态系统的各功能之间存在时空权衡关系。2005—2010年,农业生产-生态、农业生活-生态功能之间的权衡关系整体表现为收益于农业生态功能,而2010—2015年则分别收益于农业生产功能和农业生活功能,各功能之间权衡关系变化及收益方向的转变是导致东北旱作区农业生态系统整体协同度出现波动的直接原因。3)应用协同函数和统计均方根误差可以定量化描述区域农业生态系统发展的有序程度及系统内部各功能之间的关系,能够更直接有效地识别引起东北旱作区农业系统变化的因素,结果可为区域农业生态系统可持续发展提供参考。
In the process of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, the role of agriculture has been changing from single to multiple functions. Comprehensive evaluation of the degree of synergy of agro-ecosystems can guide sustainable regional development. The dry farming area in Northeast China is not only an important grain production base, but also a severe soil erosion area in China. Due to excessive long-term fertilizer application, unreasonable farming systems and management measures, agro-ecological environments in the dry farming areas have faced enormous pressure. In this research, the grain production and soil data for 85 counties in dry farming areas of Northeast China were used as basic materials, which included socio-economic data from agricultural statistics yearbooks of three northeastern provinces from 2005 to 2015 and soil physic-chemical parameters obtained from soil samples collected in the study area in May 2017. The spatial variations in synergy and trade-offs among agro-production functions, agro-living functions and agro-ecological functions of agro-ecosystem were analyzed based on the synergetic model and root mean square error(RMSE) at different time periods. The aim of this research was to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the three agro-ecosystem functions stated above. The results showed that the degree of the synergy of agro-ecosystem was low for the dry farming areas in Northeast China, dropping by 0.12 for the period 2005–2015. The degrees of synergy of agro-production function and agro-ecological function were dropped by 0.03 and 0.45, respectively. However, the synergy degree of agro-living function increased slightly. Except for drying farming areas in Liaoning Province, the synergy degree of agro-ecosystem decreased significantly in Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province, indicating that the synergy among three functions of agro-ecosystem was in disorder. There were spatial and temporal trade-off relationships among various functions of agro-ecosystem. For the period 2005–2010, the trade-offs between agro-production function and agro-ecological function, and between agro-living function and agro-ecological function benefited from the ecological function. However, the trade-offs benefited from the production functions and living functions for the period 2010–2015. The main reasons were the fluctuations in the trade-off relationships among three functions of agriculture and changes in the related benefit directions. It was suggested that the synergy degree of agro-ecosystem and the relationships among agro-production function, agro-living function and agro-ecological function were quantitatively describable using the synergetic model and root mean square error. It was an effective way of identifying the structural factors that caused changes in agro-ecosystems by the two methods. The results provided critical references for sustainable development of agro-ecosystem in the dry farming areas of Northeast China.
In the process of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, the role of agriculture has been changing from single to multiple functions. Comprehensive evaluation of the degree of synergy of agro-ecosystems can guide sustainable regional development. The dry farming area in Northeast China is not only an important grain production base, but also a severe soil erosion area in China. Due to excessive long-term fertilizer application, unreasonable farming systems and management measures, agro-ecological environments in the dry farming areas have faced enormous pressure. In this research, the grain production and soil data for 85 counties in dry farming areas of Northeast China were used as basic materials, which included socio-economic data from agricultural statistics yearbooks of three northeastern provinces from 2005 to 2015 and soil physic-chemical parameters obtained from soil samples collected in the study area in May 2017. The spatial variations in synergy and trade-offs among agro-production functions, agro-living functions and agro-ecological functions of agro-ecosystem were analyzed based on the synergetic model and root mean square error(RMSE) at different time periods. The aim of this research was to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the three agro-ecosystem functions stated above. The results showed that the degree of the synergy of agro-ecosystem was low for the dry farming areas in Northeast China, dropping by 0.12 for the period 2005–2015. The degrees of synergy of agro-production function and agro-ecological function were dropped by 0.03 and 0.45, respectively. However, the synergy degree of agro-living function increased slightly. Except for drying farming areas in Liaoning Province, the synergy degree of agro-ecosystem decreased significantly in Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province, indicating that the synergy among three functions of agro-ecosystem was in disorder. There were spatial and temporal trade-off relationships among various functions of agro-ecosystem. For the period 2005–2010, the trade-offs between agro-production function and agro-ecological function, and between agro-living function and agro-ecological function benefited from the ecological function. However, the trade-offs benefited from the production functions and living functions for the period 2010–2015. The main reasons were the fluctuations in the trade-off relationships among three functions of agriculture and changes in the related benefit directions. It was suggested that the synergy degree of agro-ecosystem and the relationships among agro-production function, agro-living function and agro-ecological function were quantitatively describable using the synergetic model and root mean square error. It was an effective way of identifying the structural factors that caused changes in agro-ecosystems by the two methods. The results provided critical references for sustainable development of agro-ecosystem in the dry farming areas of Northeast China.
引文
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[12]INKELES A.Becoming modern:Individual change in six developing countries[J].Ethos,1975,3(2):323–342
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