基于SBM-Undesirable模型的省际农业用水效率比较及节水潜力研究
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摘要
为缓解中国农业用水短缺与污染状况,落实国家水安全战略和保证粮食安全,运用考虑非期望产出的SBM-Undesirable模型,比较研究了中国省际农业用水效率和农业用水优化路径。从全要素的角度出发,在识别主要影响农业用水效率因素的基础上,设计模型的投入指标并测算2011—2014年中国大陆31个省(区、市)的农业用水效率。结果表明,中国农业用水效率总体呈上升趋势,但仍然具有较大的提升空间,各个省(区、市)的农业用水效率呈现不同的发展趋势,新疆、江苏、广东等省份的农业用水效率提升空间大,具有很大的节水潜力。基于农业用水效率的实证结果和污染排放指标,对未达到农业用水效率有效前沿面的25个省份进行聚类分析,将25个省份的农业用水方式分为低农业用水效率-低污染排放、低农业用水效率-高污染排放类型、高农业用水效率-低污染排放类型和高农业用水效率-高污染排放类型四类,并分别提出了农业用水优化策略。
To alleviate agricultural water shortage and pollution and ensure food security, this paper use the SBM-Undesirable model to estimate the agricultural water use efficiency for China's 31 provinces from 2011 to 2014. Some conclusions are as follows:During research period, the agricultural water use efficiency in China is rising,but still has a large space to improve.The trend of efficiency of different provinces is various and Xinjiang,Jiangsu and Guangdong have great water-saving potential.Then we cluster 25 provinces which are not achieving the effective frontier into four categories by clustering analysis. Respectively,the optimization strategy of agricultural water are put forward.
To alleviate agricultural water shortage and pollution and ensure food security, this paper use the SBM-Undesirable model to estimate the agricultural water use efficiency for China's 31 provinces from 2011 to 2014. Some conclusions are as follows:During research period, the agricultural water use efficiency in China is rising,but still has a large space to improve.The trend of efficiency of different provinces is various and Xinjiang,Jiangsu and Guangdong have great water-saving potential.Then we cluster 25 provinces which are not achieving the effective frontier into four categories by clustering analysis. Respectively,the optimization strategy of agricultural water are put forward.
引文
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[24]杨迎,伍靖伟,杨金忠.海河流域冬小麦水分生产率特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(3):6-11.
[2]王俊敏.农村水环境问题探讨及建议[J].现代经济探讨,2016(2):78-81.
[3] LOPEZ-GUNN E,ZORRILLA P,PRIETO F,et al. Lost in translation? Water efficiency in Spanish agriculture[J].Agricultural Water Management,2012,108(2):83-95.
[4]马文军,程琴娟,宇振荣.试验站和农户管理水平下冬小麦水分利用效率比较[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):1896-1901.
[5]马莉,宋佃星.荒漠绿洲区春小麦耗水规律与水分利用效率研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):136-140.
[6]朱正全,冯绍元,王娟,等.内蒙古河套灌区农业灌溉资源型节水潜力分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(9):77-80.
[7]张金萍,郭兵托.宁夏平原区种植结构调整对区域水资源利用效用的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(9):22-26.
[8]王昕,陆迁.中国农业水资源利用效率区域差异及趋同性检验实证分析[J].软科学,2014(11):133-137.
[9]王克强,邓光耀,刘红梅.基于多区域CGE模型的中国农业用水效率和水资源税政策模拟研究[J].财经研究,2015,41(3):40-52.
[10]王学渊,赵连阁.中国农业用水效率及影响因素——基于1997-2006年省区面板数据的SFA分析[J].农业经济问题,2008,29(3):10-18.
[11]王学渊.基于数据包络分析方法的灌溉用水效率测算与分解[J].农业技术经济,2009(6):40-49.
[12]黎红梅,陈惠敏.中国粮食技术效率与灌溉用水效率交互影响——基于省区面板数据的SFA-SEM分析[J].系统工程,2013(5):121-126.
[13]佟金萍,马剑锋,王圣,等.长江流域农业用水效率研究:基于超效率DEA和Tobit模型[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(4):603-608.
[14]佟金萍,马剑锋,王慧敏,等.农业用水效率与技术进步:基于中国农业面板数据的实证研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1765-1772.
[15]杨骞,刘华军.污染排放约束下中国农业水资源效率的区域差异与影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(1):114-128.
[16]刘涛.污染排放、技术效率与农业用水方式转变[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016,15(1):1-9.
[17] TONE K. Slacks-Based Measure of Efficiency[A].Handbook on Data Envelopment Analysis[M].Springer US,2011:195-209.
[18] HU J L,WANG S C,YEH F Y. Total-factor water efficiency of regions in China[J].Resources Policy,2006,31(4):217-230.
[19] ALI C,KAIS A,AYMEN F. Water use efficiency in irrigated wheat production systems in central Tunisia:A stochastic data envelopment approach[J].Journal of Agricultural Science,2014,6(2):63-71.
[20] CUI E G,ZHANG Z Q,YANG Y E. Analysis with calculation method based on the spatial distribution of water efficiency of irrigation of people's victory canal irrigation area[J].Osteoporosis International,2015,26(3):1-5.
[21] LIAN Y,ALI S,ZHANG X,et al. Nutrient and tillage strategies to increase grain yield and water use efficiency in semiarid areas[J].Agricultural Water Management,2016,178:137-147.
[22]李绍飞.改进的模糊物元模型在灌区农业用水效率评价中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):175-181.
[23]许振柱,周广胜.农业水分利用率及其对环境和管理活动的响应[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(3):294-303.
[24]杨迎,伍靖伟,杨金忠.海河流域冬小麦水分生产率特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(3):6-11.