生计风险感知对农民参与电商扶贫意愿的影响及代际差异研究
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摘要
基于西部民族地区1051份具有参与电商扶贫意愿的农民样本数据,以生计风险感知为研究视角,构建多群组结构方程模型实证分析西部民族地区农民参与电商扶贫意愿的代际差异及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)个人基本特征对西部民族地区农民参与电商扶贫意愿影响显著。新生代农民中性别占比差距在下降,具有高中(中专)、大专及以上学历者和未婚者所占比例相对较高;(2)西部民族地区农民的生计风险感知与其参与电商扶贫意愿显著正相关。农民的生计风险感知越强,其越愿意参与电商扶贫,但生计风险感知对新生代农民的影响更显著。具体来看,两代农民均注重天气灾害风险、农产品市场风险、农村金融贷款风险、农特产品加工以及农村电商政策等因素。除生产资料市场风险和农村网络设施外,新生代农民受到其余各项指标的影响都更明显。
From perspective of livelihood risk perception, we establish a multi-group structural equation model to empirically analyze the intergenerational differences and their main influencing factors of farmers' willingness to participate in e-commerce poverty alleviation. The data were collected from 1051 farmers with the willingness to participate in e-commerce poverty alleviation in western ethnic regions. The results show that:( 1) Individual characteristics have a significant impact on the willingness of farmers in western ethnic regions to participate in e-commerce poverty alleviation. The gap in gender ratio among the new generation of peasants is narrowing,and the proportion of those with high school( secondary school),college education or above and unmarried is relatively high;( 2) Farmers' livelihood risk perceptionin western ethnic regions is significantly positively correlated with their willingness to participate in e-commerce and poverty alleviation.The stronger the farmers' perceptions of their livelihood risks,the more they are willing to work in e-commerce poverty alleviation. Besides,the impact of livelihood risk perception on new generation farmers is more significant. Specifically,bothgenerations of farmers pay are all concerned with factors such as weather disaster risk,market risk of agricultural products,risks of rural financial loans,processing of agricultural special products and rural e-commerce policies. Except for market risk of production materials and rural network facilities,the new generation farmers are more affected by the remaining indicators.
From perspective of livelihood risk perception, we establish a multi-group structural equation model to empirically analyze the intergenerational differences and their main influencing factors of farmers' willingness to participate in e-commerce poverty alleviation. The data were collected from 1051 farmers with the willingness to participate in e-commerce poverty alleviation in western ethnic regions. The results show that:( 1) Individual characteristics have a significant impact on the willingness of farmers in western ethnic regions to participate in e-commerce poverty alleviation. The gap in gender ratio among the new generation of peasants is narrowing,and the proportion of those with high school( secondary school),college education or above and unmarried is relatively high;( 2) Farmers' livelihood risk perceptionin western ethnic regions is significantly positively correlated with their willingness to participate in e-commerce and poverty alleviation.The stronger the farmers' perceptions of their livelihood risks,the more they are willing to work in e-commerce poverty alleviation. Besides,the impact of livelihood risk perception on new generation farmers is more significant. Specifically,bothgenerations of farmers pay are all concerned with factors such as weather disaster risk,market risk of agricultural products,risks of rural financial loans,processing of agricultural special products and rural e-commerce policies. Except for market risk of production materials and rural network facilities,the new generation farmers are more affected by the remaining indicators.
引文
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2.Kulik B W,O’Fallon M J,Salimath M S.Do Competitive Environments Lead to the Rise and Spread of Unethical Behavior?Parallels from Enron.Journal of Business Ethics,2008,83(4):703~723
3.Slovic P.Perception of Risk.Scienee,1987,236(4799):280~28
4.Mitchell V W.Consumer Perceived Risk:Conceptualisations and Models.European Journal of Marketing,1999,33(12):163~195
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7.Sitkin S B,Pablo A L.Reconceptualizing the Determinants of Risk Behavior.Academy of Management Review,1992,17(1):9~38
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11.Lyons S,Kuron L.Generational Differences in the Workplace:A Review of the Evidence and Directions for Future Research.Journal of Organizational Behavior,2014,35(1):13~157
12.穆燕鸿,王杜春,迟凤敏.基于结构方程模型的农村电子商务影响因素分析---以黑龙江省15个农村电子商务示范县为例.农业技术经济,2016(8):106~118
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15.梁强,邹立凯,杨学儒,孔博.政府支持对包容性创业的影响机制研究---基于揭阳军埔农村电商创业集群的案例分析.南方经济,2016(1):42~56
16.张磊,韩雷.电商经济发展扩大了城乡居民收入差距吗?经济与管理研究,2017(5):3~13
17.马泽波.农户禀赋、区域环境与电商扶贫参与意愿---基于边疆民族地区630个农民的问卷调查.中国流通经济,2017(5):47~54
18.方曼.风险感知跨学科研究的理论进展与范式变迁---基于心理学视域的解读.国外理论动态,2017(6):117~127
19.谢尔顿·克坦姆斯基,多米尼克·戈尔丁.风险社会的社会理论学说.徐元玲等译.北京大学出版社,2005
20.徐慧清,王焕英.风险社会中农民的风险意识与应对策略研究.中国农学通报,2006(6):496~499
21.孙蓉,费友海.风险感知、利益互动与农业保险制度变迁---基于四川试点的实证分析.财贸经济,2009(6):35~40
22.邱波.我国沿海地区农业巨灾风险保障需求研究---来自浙江省308户农民的调查数据.农业经济问题,2017(11):101~108
23.张露,郭晴,张俊飚,童庆蒙.农户对气候灾害响应型生产性公共服务的需求及其影响因素分析---基于湖北省十县(区、市)百组千户的调查.中国农村观察,2017(3):102~116
24.谢治菊.西部地区农民对农村社会的风险感知与行为选择.南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):12~21
25.仇童伟.土地确权如何影响农民的产权安全感知?---基于土地产权历史情景的分析.南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(7):95~109
26.钟涨宝,李飞,冯华超.养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响及其代际差异---基于5省1573个样本的实证分析.人口与经济,2016(6):72~81
27.苏芳,周亚雄.新型城镇化背景下劳动力转移对农户生计策略选择的影响分析.数理统计与管理,2017(3):391~401
28.刘炎周,王芳,郭艳,宋得浪.农民分化、代际差异与农房抵押贷款接受度.中国农村经济,2016(9):16~29
29.苏芳,尚海洋.农户生计资本对其风险应对策略的影响---以黑河流域张掖市为例.中国农村经济,2012(8):79~87
30.陈新建.感知风险、风险规避与农户风险偏好异质性---基于对广东适度规模果农风险偏好的测度检验.广西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(3):85~91
31.赵雪雁,赵海莉,刘春芳.石羊河下游农户的生计风险及应对策略---以民勤绿洲区为例.地理研究,2015(5):922~932
32.邓万春.关于农民市场风险的一种表述---市场“规则”与“场所”的关系逻辑.中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008(9):35~45
(1)国务院扶贫开发领导小组办公室.关于促进电商精准扶贫的指导意见[EB/OL].http://www.cpad.gov.cn/art/2016/11/23/art_343 _241. html,2016-11-23
2.Kulik B W,O’Fallon M J,Salimath M S.Do Competitive Environments Lead to the Rise and Spread of Unethical Behavior?Parallels from Enron.Journal of Business Ethics,2008,83(4):703~723
3.Slovic P.Perception of Risk.Scienee,1987,236(4799):280~28
4.Mitchell V W.Consumer Perceived Risk:Conceptualisations and Models.European Journal of Marketing,1999,33(12):163~195
5.Bauer R A.Consumer Behavior as Risk Taking.Chicago:43rd Conference of the American Marketing Association,1960
6.Wildavsky A,Dake K.Theories of Risk Perception:Who Fears What and Why?.Daedalus,1990,119(4):41~60
7.Sitkin S B,Pablo A L.Reconceptualizing the Determinants of Risk Behavior.Academy of Management Review,1992,17(1):9~38
8.Slovic P,Mac Gregor D,Kraus N N.Perception of Risk from Automobile Safety Defects.Accident Analysis and Prevention,1987,19(5):359~373
9.Covello V T,Peters R G,Wojtecki J G,Hyde R C.Risk Communication,the West Nile Virus Epidemic,and Bioterrorism:Responding to the Communication Challenges Posed by the Intentional or Unintentional Release of A Pathogen in An Urban Setting.Journal of Urban Health,2001,78(2):382~391
10.Fraedrich J P,Ferrell O C.The Impact of Perceived Risk and Moral Philosophy Type on Ethical Decision Making in Business Organizations.Journal of Business Research,1992,24(4):283~295
11.Lyons S,Kuron L.Generational Differences in the Workplace:A Review of the Evidence and Directions for Future Research.Journal of Organizational Behavior,2014,35(1):13~157
12.穆燕鸿,王杜春,迟凤敏.基于结构方程模型的农村电子商务影响因素分析---以黑龙江省15个农村电子商务示范县为例.农业技术经济,2016(8):106~118
13.郑瑞强,张哲萌,张哲铭.电商扶贫的作用机理、关键问题与政策走向.理论导刊,2016(10):76~79
14.鲁钊阳,廖杉杉.农产品电商发展的区域创业效应研究.中国软科学,2016(5):67~78
15.梁强,邹立凯,杨学儒,孔博.政府支持对包容性创业的影响机制研究---基于揭阳军埔农村电商创业集群的案例分析.南方经济,2016(1):42~56
16.张磊,韩雷.电商经济发展扩大了城乡居民收入差距吗?经济与管理研究,2017(5):3~13
17.马泽波.农户禀赋、区域环境与电商扶贫参与意愿---基于边疆民族地区630个农民的问卷调查.中国流通经济,2017(5):47~54
18.方曼.风险感知跨学科研究的理论进展与范式变迁---基于心理学视域的解读.国外理论动态,2017(6):117~127
19.谢尔顿·克坦姆斯基,多米尼克·戈尔丁.风险社会的社会理论学说.徐元玲等译.北京大学出版社,2005
20.徐慧清,王焕英.风险社会中农民的风险意识与应对策略研究.中国农学通报,2006(6):496~499
21.孙蓉,费友海.风险感知、利益互动与农业保险制度变迁---基于四川试点的实证分析.财贸经济,2009(6):35~40
22.邱波.我国沿海地区农业巨灾风险保障需求研究---来自浙江省308户农民的调查数据.农业经济问题,2017(11):101~108
23.张露,郭晴,张俊飚,童庆蒙.农户对气候灾害响应型生产性公共服务的需求及其影响因素分析---基于湖北省十县(区、市)百组千户的调查.中国农村观察,2017(3):102~116
24.谢治菊.西部地区农民对农村社会的风险感知与行为选择.南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):12~21
25.仇童伟.土地确权如何影响农民的产权安全感知?---基于土地产权历史情景的分析.南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(7):95~109
26.钟涨宝,李飞,冯华超.养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响及其代际差异---基于5省1573个样本的实证分析.人口与经济,2016(6):72~81
27.苏芳,周亚雄.新型城镇化背景下劳动力转移对农户生计策略选择的影响分析.数理统计与管理,2017(3):391~401
28.刘炎周,王芳,郭艳,宋得浪.农民分化、代际差异与农房抵押贷款接受度.中国农村经济,2016(9):16~29
29.苏芳,尚海洋.农户生计资本对其风险应对策略的影响---以黑河流域张掖市为例.中国农村经济,2012(8):79~87
30.陈新建.感知风险、风险规避与农户风险偏好异质性---基于对广东适度规模果农风险偏好的测度检验.广西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(3):85~91
31.赵雪雁,赵海莉,刘春芳.石羊河下游农户的生计风险及应对策略---以民勤绿洲区为例.地理研究,2015(5):922~932
32.邓万春.关于农民市场风险的一种表述---市场“规则”与“场所”的关系逻辑.中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008(9):35~45
(1)国务院扶贫开发领导小组办公室.关于促进电商精准扶贫的指导意见[EB/OL].http://www.cpad.gov.cn/art/2016/11/23/art_343 _241. html,2016-11-23