我国农产品贸易逆差与进出口农产品结构的灰色关联研究
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摘要
文章运用灰色关联模型,基于我国2004—2015年农产品贸易数据,研究了我国农产品进出口结构与农产品贸易逆差的关联性。研究表明,我国农产品贸易逆差与进出口产品结构密切相关。在我国农产品出口贸易中,与农产品贸易逆差增长紧密关联(负相关)的农产品依次为水果、蔬菜、茶叶、水产品、棉花、畜产品、油籽、植物油、食糖、谷物;在农产品进口贸易中,与农产品贸易逆差增长关联度(正相关)紧密关联的农产品依次为茶叶、水果、食糖、大豆、畜产品、蔬菜、食用植物油、水产品、棉花、谷物;在我国农产品进出口总贸易中,与农产品贸易逆差增长关联度大小的农产品逆差依次是食糖、畜产品、茶叶、棉花、大豆和食用植物油贸易逆差。改善农产品贸易逆差的措施是:优化农产品贸易出口产品结构,重点培育具体国际竞争力的农产品出口;调整农产品贸易进口产品结构,根据国内农产品供给的不同状况,分别采取不同进口策略。
Based on the 2004-2015 years'data of agricultural products trade in China,this paper studies the correlation between the structure of import and export of agricultural products and the trade deficit of agricultural products by using the grey relational model.The research shows that the trade deficit of agricultural products in China is closely related to the structure of import and export products.Among the agricultural products export trade in our country,the agricultural products that are closely related(negatively related)to the growth of trade deficit in agricultural products are fruits,vegetables,tea,aquatic products,cotton,livestock products,oilseeds,vegetable oils,sugar and cereals in turn;In the agricultural products import trade,the agricultural products closely related to the increase of agricultural trade deficit(positive correlation)were tea,fruit,sugar,soybean,livestock products,vegetables,edible vegetable oil,aquatic products,cotton and cereals in turn;In the total trade of China's agricultural products,the deficit of agricultural products,which is related to the growth of agricultural trade deficit,is the trade deficit of sugar,livestock products,tea,cotton,soybean and edible vegetable oil.The measures to improve the trade deficit of agricultural products are:optimizing the export product structure of agricultural products trade,focusing on cultivating export of agricultural products with specific international competitiveness;and adjusting the structure of import products of agricultural products trade and adopting different import strategies according to the different conditions of domestic agricultural product supply.
Based on the 2004-2015 years'data of agricultural products trade in China,this paper studies the correlation between the structure of import and export of agricultural products and the trade deficit of agricultural products by using the grey relational model.The research shows that the trade deficit of agricultural products in China is closely related to the structure of import and export products.Among the agricultural products export trade in our country,the agricultural products that are closely related(negatively related)to the growth of trade deficit in agricultural products are fruits,vegetables,tea,aquatic products,cotton,livestock products,oilseeds,vegetable oils,sugar and cereals in turn;In the agricultural products import trade,the agricultural products closely related to the increase of agricultural trade deficit(positive correlation)were tea,fruit,sugar,soybean,livestock products,vegetables,edible vegetable oil,aquatic products,cotton and cereals in turn;In the total trade of China's agricultural products,the deficit of agricultural products,which is related to the growth of agricultural trade deficit,is the trade deficit of sugar,livestock products,tea,cotton,soybean and edible vegetable oil.The measures to improve the trade deficit of agricultural products are:optimizing the export product structure of agricultural products trade,focusing on cultivating export of agricultural products with specific international competitiveness;and adjusting the structure of import products of agricultural products trade and adopting different import strategies according to the different conditions of domestic agricultural product supply.
引文
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