马铃薯主粮化背景下农户福利效应的影响因素分析
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摘要
测算了2001—2015年马铃薯价格波动的农户生产福利效应、消费福利效应和总福利效应,并构建TVPSV-VAR模型来探究马铃薯种植农户福利效应的影响因素。研究表明,马铃薯生产价格、产量对农户生产福利的影响有结构性突变,货币流动性和马铃薯贸易对农户生产福利产生正影响,农产品期货和人均可支配收入对农户生产福利产生负影响;货币流动性对农户消费福利的影响具有结构性突变,马铃薯产量、人均消费支出和农产品期货对农户消费福利表现为正影响,马铃薯销售价格和马铃薯贸易对农户消费福利产生负影响;马铃薯产量、货币流动性、农产品期货及贸易对农户总福利影响的时变性显著,生产价格、产量和销售价格对农户总福利的影响都具有显著的结构性突变,货币流动性、人均消费支出和马铃薯贸易对农户总福利表现为正影响,人均可支配收入、农产品期货对农户总福利表现为负影响。因此,提出加大产业扶植力度,完善信息平台建设,发展马铃薯期货等政策建议。
Based on potato price data from 2001 to 2015, this paper calculated potato farmers' production welfare change, consumption welfare change, and the total welfare change resulted from potato price fluctuations by a TVP-SVVAR model and analyzed the influencing factors. Results show that the influences of potato farm gate price and yield on production welfare have some structural variations. The currency circulation velocity and potato trade have significant positive impacts on production welfare. Agricultural futures trading and per-capita disposable income have some negative impacts on production welfare. The influence of the currency circulation velocity on consumption welfare has some structural variations. Potato yield, per-capita consumption expenditure and agricultural futures trading have some positive impacts on farmers' consumption welfare. While potato retail price and potato trade have some negative impacts on farmers' consumption welfare. The effects of potato yield, currency circulation velocity, potato trade, and agricultural futures trading on farmers' total welfare displayed some significant time-varying characteristics. The effect of potato farm gate price, yield and retail price on farmers' total welfare have some structural variations. The currency circulation velocity, per-capita consumption expenditure, and potato trade have positive impacts on farmers' total welfare. The percapita disposable income and agricultural futures trading have negative impacts on farmers' total welfare. Therefore,this paper provides the following policy suggestions: to increase financial support of agricultural industrialization, to improve the construction of information platform, and to develop potato futures.
Based on potato price data from 2001 to 2015, this paper calculated potato farmers' production welfare change, consumption welfare change, and the total welfare change resulted from potato price fluctuations by a TVP-SVVAR model and analyzed the influencing factors. Results show that the influences of potato farm gate price and yield on production welfare have some structural variations. The currency circulation velocity and potato trade have significant positive impacts on production welfare. Agricultural futures trading and per-capita disposable income have some negative impacts on production welfare. The influence of the currency circulation velocity on consumption welfare has some structural variations. Potato yield, per-capita consumption expenditure and agricultural futures trading have some positive impacts on farmers' consumption welfare. While potato retail price and potato trade have some negative impacts on farmers' consumption welfare. The effects of potato yield, currency circulation velocity, potato trade, and agricultural futures trading on farmers' total welfare displayed some significant time-varying characteristics. The effect of potato farm gate price, yield and retail price on farmers' total welfare have some structural variations. The currency circulation velocity, per-capita consumption expenditure, and potato trade have positive impacts on farmers' total welfare. The percapita disposable income and agricultural futures trading have negative impacts on farmers' total welfare. Therefore,this paper provides the following policy suggestions: to increase financial support of agricultural industrialization, to improve the construction of information platform, and to develop potato futures.
引文
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[11]蔡海龙.我国马铃薯价格波动的原因探析[J].价格理论与实践,2013(9):64-65.Cai H L.An analysis of the characteristics and causes of Chinese potato price volatility[J].Price:Theory&Practice,2013(9):64-65.
[12]朱聪.马铃薯产销价格传导效应研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2014.Zhu C.Research on Price Transmission Effect between Farm and Wholesale of Potatoes in China[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2014.
[13]李辉尚,马娟娟,沈辰,等.我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究--基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析[J].中国蔬菜,2017(2):60-66.Li H S,Ma J J,Shen C,et al.Study on the fluctuation rule of potato price in China:The empirical analysis based on X-12 and H-P filtering model[J].China Vegetables,2017(2):60-66.
[14]李京栋,李先德,王士海.主粮化背景下马铃薯价格波动的金融化因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(4):13-21.Li J D,Li X D,Wang S H.Analysis on financialization of potato price fluctuation under background of developing potato as staple food[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2017(4):13-21.
[15]Minot N,Goletti F.Rice Market Liberalization and Poverty in Viet Nam[M].Washington,DC:International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI),2000:42-89.
[16]King M A.Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data[J].Journal of Public Economic,1983,21(2):183-214.
[17]Banks J,Blundell R,Lewbel A.Tax reform and welfare measurement:Do we need demand system estimation?[J].Economic Journal,1996,106(438):1227-1241.
[18]王珊,张安录,张叶生.农地城市流转的农户福利效应测度[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(3):108-115.Wang S,Zhang A L,Zhang Y S.Measurement of household welfare change in the process of rural-urban land conversion[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(3):108-115.
[19]罗超平,牛可,张梓榆,等.粮食价格波动与主产区农户福利效应--基于主产区省际面板数据的分析[J].中国软科学,2017(2):37-53.Luo C P,Niu K,Zhang Z Y,et al.Research on the effect of grain price fluctuation on farmers welfare in the major grain growing provinces in China[J].China Soft Science,2017(2):37-53.
[20]杨军,程申,杨博琼,等.日韩粮食消费结构变化特征及对我国未来农产品需求的启示[J].中国软科学,2013(1):24-31.Yang J,Cheng S,Yang B Q,et al.Changing trends of food consumption structure in Japan and Korea and their implications for China’s future food demands[J].China Soft Science,2013(1):24-31.
[21]Nakajima J.Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility:An overview of methodology and empirical applications[J].Monetary and Economic Studies,2011,29(11):107-142.
[22]易晓峰,罗其友.基于三阶段DEA的中国马铃薯主产区生产效率分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(3):270-276.Yi X F,Luo Q Y.Evaluation on efficiency of potato producing areas based on three-stage DEA model[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(3):270-276.
[23]刘尧成,徐晓萍.中国经济向新常态转换的冲击影响机制研究[J].统计研究,2016,33(6):21-29.Liu Y C,Xu X P.The impact mechanism of shocks to China’s transformation to the new normal economy[J].Statistical Research,2016,33(6):21-29.
[24]蔡勋,陶建平.货币流动性是猪肉价格波动的原因吗--基于有向无环图的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2017(3):33-41.Cai X,Tao J P.Is currency liquidity the cause of pork price fluctuation?--An empirical analysis based on the Directed Acyclic Graph[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(3):33-41.
[2]赵昕东,汪勇.食品价格上涨对不同收入等级城镇居民消费行为与福利的影响--基于QUAIDS模型的研究[J].中国软科学,2013(8):154-162.Zhao X D,Wang Y.Research on the effects of food price rise on the consumption behavior and welfare of urban residents based on QUAIDS Model[J].China Soft Science,2013(8):154-162.
[3]李京栋,张吉国.大蒜价格波动的主产区福利效应分析--基于滤波法和Minot模型的分析[J].山东农业科学,2015(9):151-156.Li J D,Zhang J G.Analysis on welfare effects of garlic price fluctuation in main production areas:Based on filtering method and Minot model[J].Shandong Agricultural Sciences,2015(9):151-156.
[4]苗珊珊.中国粮食价格波动的区域福利效应研究[J].经济问题,2015(2):114-119.Miao S S.Regional difference of price volatility welfare analysis:Based on the producing and sales districts perspective[J].On Economic Problems,2015(2):114-119.
[5]李志红.粮食价格的提高会增加农民收入吗?[J].中国金融,2007(12):58-60.Li Z H.Will the increase in grain prices increase the income of farmers?[J].China Finance,2007(12):58-60.
[6]郭劲光.粮食价格波动对人口福利变动的影响评估[J].中国人口科学,2009(6):49-58.Guo J G.The impact of grain price fluctuation on residents’welfare[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2009(6):49-58.
[7]石敏俊,王妍,朱杏珍.能源价格波动与粮食价格波动对城乡经济关系的影响--基于城乡投入产出模式[J].中国农村经济,2009(5):4-13.Shi M J,Wang Y,Zhu X Z.The impacts of price fluctuation of energy and grain on the relation between urban and rural economy[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2009(5):4-13.
[8]邵飞,陆迁.我国玉米价格波动福利效应分析[J].价格理论与实践,2010(8):53-54.Shao F,Lu Q.Analysis of the welfare effect of the corn price fluctuation in China[J].Price:Theory&Practice,2010(8):53-54.
[9]苗珊珊.大米价格波动的农户福利效应研究[J].西安财经学院学报,2014(4):52-57.Miao S S.Empirical analysis on fluctuation’s welfare effects under the fluctuation of rice price[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics,2014(4):52-57.
[10]罗超平,牛可,但斌.蔬菜价格波动的农村与城镇居民福利效应--基于省际面板数据模型[J].农村经济,2017(4):100-107.Luo C P,Niu K,Dan B.Rural and urban residents’welfare effect fluctuating in vegetable prices[J].Rural Economy,2017(4):100-107.
[11]蔡海龙.我国马铃薯价格波动的原因探析[J].价格理论与实践,2013(9):64-65.Cai H L.An analysis of the characteristics and causes of Chinese potato price volatility[J].Price:Theory&Practice,2013(9):64-65.
[12]朱聪.马铃薯产销价格传导效应研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2014.Zhu C.Research on Price Transmission Effect between Farm and Wholesale of Potatoes in China[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2014.
[13]李辉尚,马娟娟,沈辰,等.我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究--基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析[J].中国蔬菜,2017(2):60-66.Li H S,Ma J J,Shen C,et al.Study on the fluctuation rule of potato price in China:The empirical analysis based on X-12 and H-P filtering model[J].China Vegetables,2017(2):60-66.
[14]李京栋,李先德,王士海.主粮化背景下马铃薯价格波动的金融化因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(4):13-21.Li J D,Li X D,Wang S H.Analysis on financialization of potato price fluctuation under background of developing potato as staple food[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2017(4):13-21.
[15]Minot N,Goletti F.Rice Market Liberalization and Poverty in Viet Nam[M].Washington,DC:International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI),2000:42-89.
[16]King M A.Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data[J].Journal of Public Economic,1983,21(2):183-214.
[17]Banks J,Blundell R,Lewbel A.Tax reform and welfare measurement:Do we need demand system estimation?[J].Economic Journal,1996,106(438):1227-1241.
[18]王珊,张安录,张叶生.农地城市流转的农户福利效应测度[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(3):108-115.Wang S,Zhang A L,Zhang Y S.Measurement of household welfare change in the process of rural-urban land conversion[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(3):108-115.
[19]罗超平,牛可,张梓榆,等.粮食价格波动与主产区农户福利效应--基于主产区省际面板数据的分析[J].中国软科学,2017(2):37-53.Luo C P,Niu K,Zhang Z Y,et al.Research on the effect of grain price fluctuation on farmers welfare in the major grain growing provinces in China[J].China Soft Science,2017(2):37-53.
[20]杨军,程申,杨博琼,等.日韩粮食消费结构变化特征及对我国未来农产品需求的启示[J].中国软科学,2013(1):24-31.Yang J,Cheng S,Yang B Q,et al.Changing trends of food consumption structure in Japan and Korea and their implications for China’s future food demands[J].China Soft Science,2013(1):24-31.
[21]Nakajima J.Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility:An overview of methodology and empirical applications[J].Monetary and Economic Studies,2011,29(11):107-142.
[22]易晓峰,罗其友.基于三阶段DEA的中国马铃薯主产区生产效率分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(3):270-276.Yi X F,Luo Q Y.Evaluation on efficiency of potato producing areas based on three-stage DEA model[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(3):270-276.
[23]刘尧成,徐晓萍.中国经济向新常态转换的冲击影响机制研究[J].统计研究,2016,33(6):21-29.Liu Y C,Xu X P.The impact mechanism of shocks to China’s transformation to the new normal economy[J].Statistical Research,2016,33(6):21-29.
[24]蔡勋,陶建平.货币流动性是猪肉价格波动的原因吗--基于有向无环图的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2017(3):33-41.Cai X,Tao J P.Is currency liquidity the cause of pork price fluctuation?--An empirical analysis based on the Directed Acyclic Graph[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(3):33-41.