农村宅基地流转的社会风险评估实证研究
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摘要
农村宅基地是农民安身立命之所,宅基地制度改革不可避免地带来社会风险,如何让改革的风险最小化红利最大化,是该项制度改革成功的关键,因此研究农村宅基地使用权流转的社会风险问题具有重要的现实意义。本文首先对农村宅基地流转的社会风险进行界定,构建农户个体和农民集体两个层次的社会风险预警体系,然后运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法,对广东省农村宅基地流转的社会风险进行实证评估,得出农户个体风险处于"重警"状态,农民集体风险处于"中警"状态。针对研究结果,提出应重点关注宅基地对家庭重要性、村集体决策透明度等具体微观的敏感性指标带来的社会风险问题。
Rural homestead is farmers' vital assets that are as precious as farmers' lives. Homestead system reform will inevitably bring about social risk,so the key to the reform is how to minimize risk and maximize profit. Therefore,it is necessary to explore the social risk problem of rural homestead transfer( RHT). The paper,based on defining the social risk of RHT,set up early warning indicators on the two layers of farmer individuals and farmer collectives,then analyzed survey data of 1216 farmer household in Guangdong province and assessed the social risk of RHT by employing methods of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results showed that:( 1) individual social risk of RHT was at a heavy alarm level,which meant most farmer individuals resisted the RHT;( 2) collective social risk of RHT was at a moderate alarm level,which illustrated farmer collectives generally supported RHT. According to the results,close attention should be paid to the risk caused by some sensitive indicators like the importance of rural homestead for farmer household,the transparency of decision-making by farmer collective.
Rural homestead is farmers' vital assets that are as precious as farmers' lives. Homestead system reform will inevitably bring about social risk,so the key to the reform is how to minimize risk and maximize profit. Therefore,it is necessary to explore the social risk problem of rural homestead transfer( RHT). The paper,based on defining the social risk of RHT,set up early warning indicators on the two layers of farmer individuals and farmer collectives,then analyzed survey data of 1216 farmer household in Guangdong province and assessed the social risk of RHT by employing methods of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results showed that:( 1) individual social risk of RHT was at a heavy alarm level,which meant most farmer individuals resisted the RHT;( 2) collective social risk of RHT was at a moderate alarm level,which illustrated farmer collectives generally supported RHT. According to the results,close attention should be paid to the risk caused by some sensitive indicators like the importance of rural homestead for farmer household,the transparency of decision-making by farmer collective.
引文
[1]吕军书.物权效率维度下我国农村宅基地市场配置探微——兼论宅基地市场配置的风险防范[J].河南大学学报,2012,52(1):35-40.
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[13]陈秋玲.社会风险预警[M].经济管理出版社,2010.
[14]赵洪章.基于模糊综合评价法的毕业生综合素质二维评价模型研究[J].科学·经济·社会,2013,31(3):158-163.
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[16]吴明发,周飞,胡贵明.土地整理效益评价——以湛江市丰收农场土地整理项目为例.资源开发与市场,2011,27(11):995-997.
[2]林超,陈泓冰.农村宅基地流转制度改革风险评估研究[J].经济体制改革,2014(4):91-92.
[3]王兆林,杨庆媛,范垚.农户土地退出风险认知及规避能力的影响因素分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(7):136-139.
[4]程世勇,江永基.农村宅基地流转中的市场失灵和政府行为[J].农村经济,2010(6):10-12.
[5]关江华.基于风险能力评价的农户宅基地流转福利变化研究--以武汉城市圈典型区域为例[D].华中农业大学,2014.
[6]邓伟志.关于社会风险预警机制问题的思考[J].社会科学,2003(7):69.
[7]阎耀军.超越危机——构建社会风险预警指标体系及其运行平台的构想[J].甘肃社会科学,2005(3):13-15.
[8]李航.我国转型期弱势群体社会风险管理探析[D].西南财经大学,2005.
[9]姜玉欣.风险社会与社会预警机制——德国社会学家贝克“风险社会”理论及启示[J].理论学刊,2009(8):80-82.
[10]宋林飞.中国社会风险预警系统的设计与运行[J].东南大学学报社会科学版,1999,1(1):69-76.
[11]冯必扬.社会风险:视角、内涵与成因[J].天津社会科学,2004(2):73-77.
[12]林义.强化我国社会风险管理的政策思路[J].经济社会体制比较,2002,104(6):16-19.
[13]陈秋玲.社会风险预警[M].经济管理出版社,2010.
[14]赵洪章.基于模糊综合评价法的毕业生综合素质二维评价模型研究[J].科学·经济·社会,2013,31(3):158-163.
[15]谭跃进.定量分析方法[M].中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[16]吴明发,周飞,胡贵明.土地整理效益评价——以湛江市丰收农场土地整理项目为例.资源开发与市场,2011,27(11):995-997.