关于完善我国农业保险制度的思考
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摘要
农业保险是世界各国普遍采用的管理农业风险、降低农业生产不确定性的重要措施。农业保险市场失灵现象在世界各国普遍存在。本文从农业保险的特点和主要类型出发,概述了全球农业保险的发展态势和典型经验,以及我国农业保险的发展概况,结合农业保险研究进展对我国农业保险发展存在问题和挑战进行讨论。为建立多层次农业保险体系,应当明确界定我国农业保险的目标,厘清与宏观经济目标的区别,制定农业保险发展的长期战略性规划;注重农业保险创新的科学性、有效性验证,避免农业保险创新催生新的风险;改革农业保险核损的组织形式,提高农户分散经营背景下的农业保险经营效率;加强微观层面的研究,切实提升农业保险需求;深入全面地研究政府支持农业保险的效率和效果,动态调整支持力度,丰富支持农业保险的方式。
Agricultural insurance is an important measure for managing agricultural risk and reducing the uncer-tainty of agricultural production,but agricultural insurance market failure exists globally. This paper summari-zes the development trend and typical experience of agricultural insurance in major economies including China,and focus on the issues and challenges of China's agricultural insurance system. Key policy implications are dis-cussed for establishing a multi-level agricultural insurance system. Firstly, clearly defineobjectives ofChina'sagricultural insurance,and clarify its differences from objectives of macro-economic policies as well asthe positive impacts of agricultural insurance,and set a long-term strategic developmentplan. Secondly,verifythe effectiveness of agricultural insurance innovation products,and avoid new risks arising from agricultural in-surance innovation. Thirdly,reform the organizational form of damage assessment in agricultural insurance in-dustry,given decentralized feature of Chinese farmers. Fourthly,put more efforts on micro-level research toprovide effective measures for the demand deficiency issue ofagricultural insurance in China. Fifthly,do thor-oughly and comprehensively analysis about the efficiency of support for agricultural insurance,provide insightsfor dynamically adjustmentsin government support intensity and its form.
Agricultural insurance is an important measure for managing agricultural risk and reducing the uncer-tainty of agricultural production,but agricultural insurance market failure exists globally. This paper summari-zes the development trend and typical experience of agricultural insurance in major economies including China,and focus on the issues and challenges of China's agricultural insurance system. Key policy implications are dis-cussed for establishing a multi-level agricultural insurance system. Firstly, clearly defineobjectives ofChina'sagricultural insurance,and clarify its differences from objectives of macro-economic policies as well asthe positive impacts of agricultural insurance,and set a long-term strategic developmentplan. Secondly,verifythe effectiveness of agricultural insurance innovation products,and avoid new risks arising from agricultural in-surance innovation. Thirdly,reform the organizational form of damage assessment in agricultural insurance in-dustry,given decentralized feature of Chinese farmers. Fourthly,put more efforts on micro-level research toprovide effective measures for the demand deficiency issue ofagricultural insurance in China. Fifthly,do thor-oughly and comprehensively analysis about the efficiency of support for agricultural insurance,provide insightsfor dynamically adjustmentsin government support intensity and its form.
引文
[1]陈文辉,2017,《中国农业保险发展改革理论与实践研究》.中国金融出版社。
[2]冯文丽,2004,《我国农业保险市场失灵与制度供给》,《金融研究》第4期,第124~129页。
[3]郭军和马晓河,2018,《小规模农户农业保险的“缺位”与“补位”》.《农村工作通讯》第11期,第24~27页。
[4]刘布春和梅旭荣,《农业保险的理论与实践》,北京:科学出版社,2010:51~52。
[5]马彪和李丹,2018,《生猪价格指数保险中的系统性风险问题研究》.《农业技术经济》第8期,第112~123页。
[6]孟德峰和李长越,2011,《政策性农业保险的农户需求与满足程度调查研究》,《经济纵横》第10期,第73~76页。
[7]陶振,2018,《美国农业保险不当行为治理及其启示》.湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),19(04):第60~66页。
[8]庹国柱,2014,《巨灾保险不防从农业保险起步》,北京:中国农业出版社,2014:137~139.
[9]庹国柱,2017,《论农业保险市场的有限竞争》,《保险研究》第2期,第13~18页。
[10]庹国柱和张峭,2018,《论我国农业保险的政策目标》,《保险研究》第7期,第7~15页。
[11]王雅婧、刘宽和周梦璐,2018,《生猪价格指数保险的国内外比较及启示》,《中国市场》第23期,第11~13页。
[12]张跃华和何文炯,2007,《农村保险、农业保险与农民需求意愿山西省、江西省、上海市706户农户问卷调查》,《中国保险》第4期,第19~22页。
[13]赵艳和付宗平.2015,《我国农业保险发展问题研究》,《经济纵横》第12期,第64~67页。
[14]郑军和袁帅帅,2015,《新型城镇化与农业保险发展:路径考察与悖论反思》,《农村经济》第1期,第78~82页。
[15]中国保监会,2017,《中国农业保险保障水平研究报告》。
[16]Ariely,D.2007.“Predictably Irrational-the hidden Forces that Shape our Decisions”.New York:Harper Collins Publishers.
[17]Barnett,B.2014,“Multiple-peril Crop Insurance:Successes and Challenges”,Agricultural Finance Review,74(2):200~216.
[18]Barnett,B.J.,and Mahul,O.2007.“Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-income Countries”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1241~47.
[19]Cai,J.,Janvry,A.D.,and Sadoulet,E.2016.“Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand”.NBER Working Paper No.22702.
[20]Carter,M.2009,“Intelligent Design of Index-insurance for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists”,Focus 17:Innovations in Insuring the Poor,Brief 6,International Food Policy Institute,Washington,DC.
[21]Chen,Y.H.,Wen,X.W.,Wang,B.,and Nie,P.Y..2017.“Agricultural Pollution and Regulation:How to Subsidize Agriculture”?.Journal of Cleaner Production,164,258~264.
[22]Clarke,D.J.2016.“A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance”,Anerucab Economic Journal:Microeconomics,8(1),283~306.
[23]Cole,S.,Bastian,G.,Vyas,S.,Wendel,C.,and Stein,D.2012.“The Effectiveness of Index-based Micro-insurance in Helping Smallholders Manage Weather-related Risks”.London:EPPI-Centre,Social Science Research U-nit,Institute of Education,University of London Systemic Review.1~73.
[24]Cole,S.,Gine X.,Tobacman,J.,Topalova,P.,Townsend,R.,and Vickery,J.2013.“Barriers to Household Risk Management:Evidence from India”.American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,5,104~35.
[25]Cole,S.,Stein,D.,and Tobacman,J.2014.“Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance:Evidence from a Long-run Field Experiment”.The American Economic Review,104(5),284~90.
[26]FAO,2011,“Agricultural Insurance in Asia and the Pacific Region”.World Bank Report,2010.
[27]Giné,X.and Yang,D.2009,“Insurance,Credit,and Technology Adoption:Field Experimental Evidence from Malawi”,Journal of Development Economics,89,1,1~11.
[28]Glauber,J.W.2004.“Crop Insurance Reconsidered”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,86(5):1179~1195.
[29]Goodwin,B.K.and Hungerford,A.2014,“Copula-based Models of Systemic Risk in U.S.Agriculture:Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Contracts”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,97(3),879~896.
[30]Harri,A.,Coble,K.H.,Ker,A.P.and Goodwin,B.J.2011.“Relaxing Heteroscedasticity Assumptions in Areayield Crop Insurance Rating”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,93(3),703~713.
[31]Harrison,G.W.,Martínez-Correa,J.,Ng,J.M.,and Swarthout,J.T.(2016).“Evaluating the Welfare of Index Insurance”.CEAR,Georgia State University.
[32]Hess,U.,Skees,J.,Stoppa,A.,Barnett,B.,and Nash,J.2005.“Managing Agricultural Production Risk:Innovations in Developing Countries”.Auckland:Agriculture and Rural Development(ARD).
[33]Jensen,N.,Mude,A.,and Barrett,C.2014.“How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance:Evidence from Northern Kenya”.MPRA Paper,MPRA Paper 60452.
[34]Jurkovicova,M.2016.“Behavioral Aspects Affecting The Purchase of Insurance-different Behavior of Men and Women”.Economic Review,45(2),181~96.
[35]Just,R E,Calvin,L,and Quiggin,J.1999.“Adverse Selection in Crop Insurance”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,81(4),834~49.
[36]King,M.and Singh,A.P.2018.“Understanding Farmers'Valuation of Agricultural Insurance:Evidence from Viet Nam”,WIDER Working Paper 2018/93.
[37]Leblois,A.,Quirion,P.,Alhassane,A.and Traoré,S.2014,“Weather Index Drought Insurance:an ex Ante Evaluation for Millet Growers in Niger”,Environmental and Resource Economics,57,4,527~551.
[38]Liu,F.,Corcoran,C.P.,Tao,J.,and Cheng,J.2016.“Risk Perception,Insurance Recognition and Agricultural Insurance Behavior-an Empirical Based on Dynamic Panel Data in 31 Provinces of China”.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,20,19~25.
[39]Mahul,O.,and Stutley,C.2010.“Government Support to Agricultural Insurance:Challenges and Options for Developing Countries”.World Bank Publications,1~219.
[40]Miranda,M.J.,and Farrin,K.2012.“Index Insurance for Developing Countries”.Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,34(3),391~427.
[41]Mobarak,A.M.,and Rosenzweig,M.R.2013.“Informal Risk Sharing,Index Insurance,and Risk Taking in Developing Countries”.The American Economic Review,103(3):375~80.
[42]O'Donoghue,E.2014.“The Effects of Premium Subsidies on Demand for Crop Insurance”.Working paper.
[43]Pelka,N.,Musshoff,O.and Weber,R.2015,“Does Weather Matter?How Rainfall Affects Credit Risk in Agricultural Microfinance”,Agricultural Finance Review,75,2,194~212.
[44]Reyes,C.M.,Agbon,A.D.,Mina,C.D.,Gloria,R.B.2017.“Agricultural Insurance Program:Lessons from Different Country Experiences”.PIDS Discussion Paper Series,No.2017~02
[45]Rosenzweig,M.R.,and Binswanger,H.P.1993.“Wealth,Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments”.Economic Journal,103(416),56~78.
[46]Serra,T.,Goodwin,B.K.,and Featherstone,A.M.2003.“Modeling Changes in the US Demand for Crop Insurance during the 1990s”.Agricultural Finance Review,63(2),109~125
[47]Sherrick,B.,Barry P,Ellinger P,and Schnitkey G.2004.“Factors Influencing Farmers'Crop Insurance Decisions”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,86(1),103~114.
[48]Smith,V.H.,and Glauber,J.W.2012.“Agricultural Insurance in Developed Countries:Where Have We been and Where are We Going?”.Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,34(3),363~390.
[49]Smith,V.,and Watts,M.2009.“Index Based Agricultural Insurance in Developing Countries:Feasibility,Scalability and Sustainability”.Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
[50]Stutley,C.2012.“Promoting Food Security in a Volatile Climate:The Role of Agricultural Insurance”.Working paper.
[51]Tang,S.,Wang,Y.and Hui,X.2010.“An Empirical Study of Agricultural Insurance-evidence from China”,Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia,1,62~66.
[52]Tronstad,R.,and Bool,R.2011.“US Cotton Acreage Response due to Subsidized Crop Insurance”.Agricultural and Applied Economics,10,1~27.
[53]Van Asseldonk,M.2018,“Does Subsidized MPCI Crowds out Traditional Market-based Hail Insurance in the Netherlands?”,Agricultural Finance Review,78(2),262~274.
[54]Von Negenborn,F.,Weber,R.and Musshoff,O.2018,“Explaining Weather Related Credit Risk with Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Indices”,Agricultural Finance Review,78(2),246~261.
[55]Young,C.E.,Vandeveer,M.L.,and Schnepf,R.D.2001.“Production and Price Impacts of U.S.Crop Insurance Programs”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,83(5),1196~1203.
[56]Zuo et al.2018.“Empirical Analysis Agricultural Insurance Coverage Levels from Demand Perspective”.Working Paper.
1 1987年中共中央在《把农村改革引向深入》指示“发展农村社会保障事业,有条件的可试办合作保险”,1991年党的十三届八中全会进一步明确提出“积极发展农村保险事业,扩大险种范围,鼓励农民和集体投保。在各级政府的支持下,建立多层次、相互联系的农村专项保险基金,逐步建立农村灾害补偿制度”。中国人民保险公司逐步通过其各省分公司开始试办农业保险,覆盖种植业、养殖业的100多个险种,区域涉及除西藏自治区以外的各省、自治区、直辖市,并开发了地方政府主办、中国人民保险公司代办,保险公司和地方政府联合共保等八种模式(陈文辉等,2017)。
[2]冯文丽,2004,《我国农业保险市场失灵与制度供给》,《金融研究》第4期,第124~129页。
[3]郭军和马晓河,2018,《小规模农户农业保险的“缺位”与“补位”》.《农村工作通讯》第11期,第24~27页。
[4]刘布春和梅旭荣,《农业保险的理论与实践》,北京:科学出版社,2010:51~52。
[5]马彪和李丹,2018,《生猪价格指数保险中的系统性风险问题研究》.《农业技术经济》第8期,第112~123页。
[6]孟德峰和李长越,2011,《政策性农业保险的农户需求与满足程度调查研究》,《经济纵横》第10期,第73~76页。
[7]陶振,2018,《美国农业保险不当行为治理及其启示》.湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),19(04):第60~66页。
[8]庹国柱,2014,《巨灾保险不防从农业保险起步》,北京:中国农业出版社,2014:137~139.
[9]庹国柱,2017,《论农业保险市场的有限竞争》,《保险研究》第2期,第13~18页。
[10]庹国柱和张峭,2018,《论我国农业保险的政策目标》,《保险研究》第7期,第7~15页。
[11]王雅婧、刘宽和周梦璐,2018,《生猪价格指数保险的国内外比较及启示》,《中国市场》第23期,第11~13页。
[12]张跃华和何文炯,2007,《农村保险、农业保险与农民需求意愿山西省、江西省、上海市706户农户问卷调查》,《中国保险》第4期,第19~22页。
[13]赵艳和付宗平.2015,《我国农业保险发展问题研究》,《经济纵横》第12期,第64~67页。
[14]郑军和袁帅帅,2015,《新型城镇化与农业保险发展:路径考察与悖论反思》,《农村经济》第1期,第78~82页。
[15]中国保监会,2017,《中国农业保险保障水平研究报告》。
[16]Ariely,D.2007.“Predictably Irrational-the hidden Forces that Shape our Decisions”.New York:Harper Collins Publishers.
[17]Barnett,B.2014,“Multiple-peril Crop Insurance:Successes and Challenges”,Agricultural Finance Review,74(2):200~216.
[18]Barnett,B.J.,and Mahul,O.2007.“Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-income Countries”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1241~47.
[19]Cai,J.,Janvry,A.D.,and Sadoulet,E.2016.“Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand”.NBER Working Paper No.22702.
[20]Carter,M.2009,“Intelligent Design of Index-insurance for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists”,Focus 17:Innovations in Insuring the Poor,Brief 6,International Food Policy Institute,Washington,DC.
[21]Chen,Y.H.,Wen,X.W.,Wang,B.,and Nie,P.Y..2017.“Agricultural Pollution and Regulation:How to Subsidize Agriculture”?.Journal of Cleaner Production,164,258~264.
[22]Clarke,D.J.2016.“A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance”,Anerucab Economic Journal:Microeconomics,8(1),283~306.
[23]Cole,S.,Bastian,G.,Vyas,S.,Wendel,C.,and Stein,D.2012.“The Effectiveness of Index-based Micro-insurance in Helping Smallholders Manage Weather-related Risks”.London:EPPI-Centre,Social Science Research U-nit,Institute of Education,University of London Systemic Review.1~73.
[24]Cole,S.,Gine X.,Tobacman,J.,Topalova,P.,Townsend,R.,and Vickery,J.2013.“Barriers to Household Risk Management:Evidence from India”.American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,5,104~35.
[25]Cole,S.,Stein,D.,and Tobacman,J.2014.“Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance:Evidence from a Long-run Field Experiment”.The American Economic Review,104(5),284~90.
[26]FAO,2011,“Agricultural Insurance in Asia and the Pacific Region”.World Bank Report,2010.
[27]Giné,X.and Yang,D.2009,“Insurance,Credit,and Technology Adoption:Field Experimental Evidence from Malawi”,Journal of Development Economics,89,1,1~11.
[28]Glauber,J.W.2004.“Crop Insurance Reconsidered”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,86(5):1179~1195.
[29]Goodwin,B.K.and Hungerford,A.2014,“Copula-based Models of Systemic Risk in U.S.Agriculture:Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Contracts”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,97(3),879~896.
[30]Harri,A.,Coble,K.H.,Ker,A.P.and Goodwin,B.J.2011.“Relaxing Heteroscedasticity Assumptions in Areayield Crop Insurance Rating”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,93(3),703~713.
[31]Harrison,G.W.,Martínez-Correa,J.,Ng,J.M.,and Swarthout,J.T.(2016).“Evaluating the Welfare of Index Insurance”.CEAR,Georgia State University.
[32]Hess,U.,Skees,J.,Stoppa,A.,Barnett,B.,and Nash,J.2005.“Managing Agricultural Production Risk:Innovations in Developing Countries”.Auckland:Agriculture and Rural Development(ARD).
[33]Jensen,N.,Mude,A.,and Barrett,C.2014.“How Basis Risk and Spatiotemporal Adverse Selection Influence Demand for Index Insurance:Evidence from Northern Kenya”.MPRA Paper,MPRA Paper 60452.
[34]Jurkovicova,M.2016.“Behavioral Aspects Affecting The Purchase of Insurance-different Behavior of Men and Women”.Economic Review,45(2),181~96.
[35]Just,R E,Calvin,L,and Quiggin,J.1999.“Adverse Selection in Crop Insurance”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,81(4),834~49.
[36]King,M.and Singh,A.P.2018.“Understanding Farmers'Valuation of Agricultural Insurance:Evidence from Viet Nam”,WIDER Working Paper 2018/93.
[37]Leblois,A.,Quirion,P.,Alhassane,A.and Traoré,S.2014,“Weather Index Drought Insurance:an ex Ante Evaluation for Millet Growers in Niger”,Environmental and Resource Economics,57,4,527~551.
[38]Liu,F.,Corcoran,C.P.,Tao,J.,and Cheng,J.2016.“Risk Perception,Insurance Recognition and Agricultural Insurance Behavior-an Empirical Based on Dynamic Panel Data in 31 Provinces of China”.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,20,19~25.
[39]Mahul,O.,and Stutley,C.2010.“Government Support to Agricultural Insurance:Challenges and Options for Developing Countries”.World Bank Publications,1~219.
[40]Miranda,M.J.,and Farrin,K.2012.“Index Insurance for Developing Countries”.Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,34(3),391~427.
[41]Mobarak,A.M.,and Rosenzweig,M.R.2013.“Informal Risk Sharing,Index Insurance,and Risk Taking in Developing Countries”.The American Economic Review,103(3):375~80.
[42]O'Donoghue,E.2014.“The Effects of Premium Subsidies on Demand for Crop Insurance”.Working paper.
[43]Pelka,N.,Musshoff,O.and Weber,R.2015,“Does Weather Matter?How Rainfall Affects Credit Risk in Agricultural Microfinance”,Agricultural Finance Review,75,2,194~212.
[44]Reyes,C.M.,Agbon,A.D.,Mina,C.D.,Gloria,R.B.2017.“Agricultural Insurance Program:Lessons from Different Country Experiences”.PIDS Discussion Paper Series,No.2017~02
[45]Rosenzweig,M.R.,and Binswanger,H.P.1993.“Wealth,Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments”.Economic Journal,103(416),56~78.
[46]Serra,T.,Goodwin,B.K.,and Featherstone,A.M.2003.“Modeling Changes in the US Demand for Crop Insurance during the 1990s”.Agricultural Finance Review,63(2),109~125
[47]Sherrick,B.,Barry P,Ellinger P,and Schnitkey G.2004.“Factors Influencing Farmers'Crop Insurance Decisions”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,86(1),103~114.
[48]Smith,V.H.,and Glauber,J.W.2012.“Agricultural Insurance in Developed Countries:Where Have We been and Where are We Going?”.Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,34(3),363~390.
[49]Smith,V.,and Watts,M.2009.“Index Based Agricultural Insurance in Developing Countries:Feasibility,Scalability and Sustainability”.Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
[50]Stutley,C.2012.“Promoting Food Security in a Volatile Climate:The Role of Agricultural Insurance”.Working paper.
[51]Tang,S.,Wang,Y.and Hui,X.2010.“An Empirical Study of Agricultural Insurance-evidence from China”,Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia,1,62~66.
[52]Tronstad,R.,and Bool,R.2011.“US Cotton Acreage Response due to Subsidized Crop Insurance”.Agricultural and Applied Economics,10,1~27.
[53]Van Asseldonk,M.2018,“Does Subsidized MPCI Crowds out Traditional Market-based Hail Insurance in the Netherlands?”,Agricultural Finance Review,78(2),262~274.
[54]Von Negenborn,F.,Weber,R.and Musshoff,O.2018,“Explaining Weather Related Credit Risk with Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Indices”,Agricultural Finance Review,78(2),246~261.
[55]Young,C.E.,Vandeveer,M.L.,and Schnepf,R.D.2001.“Production and Price Impacts of U.S.Crop Insurance Programs”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,83(5),1196~1203.
[56]Zuo et al.2018.“Empirical Analysis Agricultural Insurance Coverage Levels from Demand Perspective”.Working Paper.
1 1987年中共中央在《把农村改革引向深入》指示“发展农村社会保障事业,有条件的可试办合作保险”,1991年党的十三届八中全会进一步明确提出“积极发展农村保险事业,扩大险种范围,鼓励农民和集体投保。在各级政府的支持下,建立多层次、相互联系的农村专项保险基金,逐步建立农村灾害补偿制度”。中国人民保险公司逐步通过其各省分公司开始试办农业保险,覆盖种植业、养殖业的100多个险种,区域涉及除西藏自治区以外的各省、自治区、直辖市,并开发了地方政府主办、中国人民保险公司代办,保险公司和地方政府联合共保等八种模式(陈文辉等,2017)。