基于COX模型的新生代农民工就业流动意愿影响因素研究——来自广东的经验数据
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摘要
20世纪80年代以后出生的农民工,受经济发展的影响,其就业动机正在逐步发生变化,在就业流动上也呈现出新的特点。文章采用"随机拦截法"调查方式对在广东地区务工的新生代农民工进行问卷调查,运用Cox模型对影响新生代农民工就业流动性的因素进行分析,结果发现:新生代农民工群体结构特征没有发生变化;年龄是影响新生代农民工就业流动的重要因素,年龄与其就业流动性呈负相关,受教育程度与其就业流动性呈正相关性,工作时间长短与其流动性呈负相关,收入因素是新生代农民工就业流动考虑的重要因素,另外,在制造业和餐饮、文化娱乐等行业的新生代农民工就业流动性明显要大于其他行业。
The migrant's employment motivation workers who born in nineteen eighties later,is gradually changing affected by the economic development,also the employment flow also presents new characteristics. This paper uses the"random intercept method"to survey on migrant workers in Guangdong area of the new generation of migrant workers,using Cox model analysis the influence factors of the new generation migrant workers employment mobility,results found:the new generation of migrant workers population structure characteristics are not changed;age is an important factor affecting the employment of new generation migrant workers flow,age and liquidity is negatively related to employment,education and employment mobility was positively correlated,negatively related to work hours and liquidity,income factor is an important factor to consider,the new generation of migrant workers employment flow. In addition,the new generation of migrant workers employment liquidity in the manufacturing industry and catering,entertainment industry was more than other industries.
The migrant's employment motivation workers who born in nineteen eighties later,is gradually changing affected by the economic development,also the employment flow also presents new characteristics. This paper uses the"random intercept method"to survey on migrant workers in Guangdong area of the new generation of migrant workers,using Cox model analysis the influence factors of the new generation migrant workers employment mobility,results found:the new generation of migrant workers population structure characteristics are not changed;age is an important factor affecting the employment of new generation migrant workers flow,age and liquidity is negatively related to employment,education and employment mobility was positively correlated,negatively related to work hours and liquidity,income factor is an important factor to consider,the new generation of migrant workers employment flow. In addition,the new generation of migrant workers employment liquidity in the manufacturing industry and catering,entertainment industry was more than other industries.
引文
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[16]严善平.城市劳动力市场中的人员流动及其决定机制:兼析大城市的新二元结构[J].管理世界,2006(8):8-17.
[17]梁雄军,林云,邵丹萍.农村劳动力二次流动的特点、问题与对策[J].中国社会科学,2007(3):13-28.
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[19] Cox,D.R. Regression models and life tables[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1972(34):187-220.Booth,A. L. Job Tenure and Job Mobility in Britain[J]. Industrial and Labor Relations Review,1999(1):43-70.
(1)调查是以2011年的调查为基础,新生代农民工则是1980年以后出生的,那么按此推断,到2011年新生代农民工的最高年龄在超过31岁。
[2]张晶晶.农民工流动的影响因素研究[D].南京:南京师范大学商学院,2007.
[3] Todaro,M. P. A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries[J]. The American Economic Review,1969(1):138-148.
[4] Harris,J. R and Todaro,M. P. Migration,Unemployment and Development:A Two-Sector Analysis[J]. The American Economic Review,1970(1):126-142.
[5]赵树凯.纵横城乡——农民流动的观察与研究[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1998.
[6]杜鹰,白南生.走出乡村——中国农村劳动力流动的实证研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1997
[7]李培林.农民工——中国进城农民工的经济社会分析[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[8] John Knight&Geeta Gandhi Kingdon. Race and the Incidence of Unemployment in South Africa[J]. Review of Development Economics,2004(2):198-222.
[9]白南生,李靖.农民工就业流动性研究[J].管理世界,2008(7):70-76
[10]姚俊.农民工的就业流动研究——基于江苏制造业调查的实证分析[J].经济体制改革,2011(5):88-92.
[11]李强.影响中国城乡流动人口的推力与拉力因素分析[J].中国社会科学,2003(1):125-136.
[12]朱农.论收入差距对中国乡城迁移决策的影响[J].人口与经济,2002(5):10-17.
[13]蔡昉,都阳.迁移的双重动因及其政策含义——检验相对贫困假说[J].中国人口科学,2002(4):1-7.
[14]王格玮.地区间收入差距对农村劳动力迁移的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2004(10):77-98.
[15] Fei,John C. H.&Ranis,G. Development of the Labor Surplus Economy:Theory and Policy[M]. Homewood,1964.
[16]严善平.城市劳动力市场中的人员流动及其决定机制:兼析大城市的新二元结构[J].管理世界,2006(8):8-17.
[17]梁雄军,林云,邵丹萍.农村劳动力二次流动的特点、问题与对策[J].中国社会科学,2007(3):13-28.
[18] Bergemann,A. Mertens,A. Job Stability Trends,Layoffs,and Transitions to Unemployment:An Empirical Analysis for West Germany[J]. IZA Discussion Paper,2004,No.1368.
[19] Cox,D.R. Regression models and life tables[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1972(34):187-220.Booth,A. L. Job Tenure and Job Mobility in Britain[J]. Industrial and Labor Relations Review,1999(1):43-70.
(1)调查是以2011年的调查为基础,新生代农民工则是1980年以后出生的,那么按此推断,到2011年新生代农民工的最高年龄在超过31岁。