全要素生产率的提高对农民工就业的影响
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摘要
首先从理论上阐释了全要素生产率影响农民工就业的作用机理,之后使用省级面板数据进行了实证检验。结果显示,全要素生产率的提高可以显著地带动农民工就业。这说明对于农民工群体来说,全要素生产率的提高所带来的就业创造要高于就业破坏。从分地区的视角来看,东部地区全要素生产率的农民工就业效应更加明显,这主要是由于技术进步与大量的农民工的输出所导致。相比之下,西部地区则由于农民工输入量的限制,全要素生产率的就业效应较弱。
This paper first explains the mechanism of total factor productivity affecting the employment of migrant workers and then uses the provincial panel data of 2000-2016 years in China to carry out an empirical test. The empirical results show that the increase of total factor productivity can significantly promote the employment of migrant workers,which shows that the employment creation of the increase of total factor productivity is higher than the employment destruction for the migrant workers. From the point of view of the region,the employment effect of the total factor productivity in the eastern region is more obvious,which is mainly due to the technological progress and the output of a large number of migrant workers. In contrast,the employment effect of total factor productivity is weaker in the western region due to the restriction of the input of migrant workers.
This paper first explains the mechanism of total factor productivity affecting the employment of migrant workers and then uses the provincial panel data of 2000-2016 years in China to carry out an empirical test. The empirical results show that the increase of total factor productivity can significantly promote the employment of migrant workers,which shows that the employment creation of the increase of total factor productivity is higher than the employment destruction for the migrant workers. From the point of view of the region,the employment effect of the total factor productivity in the eastern region is more obvious,which is mainly due to the technological progress and the output of a large number of migrant workers. In contrast,the employment effect of total factor productivity is weaker in the western region due to the restriction of the input of migrant workers.
引文
[1]李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].商务印书馆,1972
[2]约瑟夫·熊彼特.资本主义、社会主义与民主[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999
[3]Malinvaud E.The theory of unemployment reconsidered[M].B.Blackwell,1985
[4]Zimmermann K.F.The employment consequences of technological advance,demand and labor costs in 16 German industries[J].Empirical Economics,1991(2):253-266
[5]Aghion P.,Howitt P.Growth and Unemployment[J].Review of Economic Studies,1994(3):477-494
[6]Cooper J.The Price of Efficiency[J].Business Week,2004(3):22
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[8]马轶群,李晓春.中国劳动力转移的波动性研究---基于实际经济周期模型的实证检验[J].中国人口科学,2011(5):49-56
[9]刘洪银.技术进步影响农村劳动力转移的条件和机理[J].软科学,2011(7):87-91
[10]齐建国.中国总量就业与科技进步的关系研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2002(12):24-29
[11]余源源.中国技术进步的就业效应:基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].软科学,2008(6):11-15
[12]赵利,王振兴.技术进步的就业效应:基于中国数据的经验分析[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2010(5):113-117
[13]刘书祥,曾国彪.技术进步对中国就业影响的实证分析:1978-2006[J].经济学家,2010(4):93-100
[14]罗军,陈建国.中间产品贸易、技术进步与制造业劳动力就业[J].亚太经济,2014(6):49-58
[15]程诚,王宏波.农民工市民化途径实证研究[J].城市问题,2010(7):97-102
[16]刘荣增等.城市扩张对经济效率的影响[J].城市问题,2017(12):20-25
[17]徐坡岭,刘来会.劳动密集度与巴拉萨---萨缪尔森效应:国际证据与比较[J].国际经贸探索,2017(10):80-93
[18]何春,崔万田.城镇化的减贫效应---基于发展中国家的实证检验[J].城市问题,2017(7):9-17
(1)东部地区为北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南;中部地区为山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;西部地区为四川、重庆、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古。
[2]约瑟夫·熊彼特.资本主义、社会主义与民主[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999
[3]Malinvaud E.The theory of unemployment reconsidered[M].B.Blackwell,1985
[4]Zimmermann K.F.The employment consequences of technological advance,demand and labor costs in 16 German industries[J].Empirical Economics,1991(2):253-266
[5]Aghion P.,Howitt P.Growth and Unemployment[J].Review of Economic Studies,1994(3):477-494
[6]Cooper J.The Price of Efficiency[J].Business Week,2004(3):22
[7]崔友平.技术进步促进就业的理论、实证分析与政策建议[C].全国高等财经院校资本论研究会2006年学术年会山东经济学院与会人员论文汇编,2006
[8]马轶群,李晓春.中国劳动力转移的波动性研究---基于实际经济周期模型的实证检验[J].中国人口科学,2011(5):49-56
[9]刘洪银.技术进步影响农村劳动力转移的条件和机理[J].软科学,2011(7):87-91
[10]齐建国.中国总量就业与科技进步的关系研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2002(12):24-29
[11]余源源.中国技术进步的就业效应:基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].软科学,2008(6):11-15
[12]赵利,王振兴.技术进步的就业效应:基于中国数据的经验分析[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2010(5):113-117
[13]刘书祥,曾国彪.技术进步对中国就业影响的实证分析:1978-2006[J].经济学家,2010(4):93-100
[14]罗军,陈建国.中间产品贸易、技术进步与制造业劳动力就业[J].亚太经济,2014(6):49-58
[15]程诚,王宏波.农民工市民化途径实证研究[J].城市问题,2010(7):97-102
[16]刘荣增等.城市扩张对经济效率的影响[J].城市问题,2017(12):20-25
[17]徐坡岭,刘来会.劳动密集度与巴拉萨---萨缪尔森效应:国际证据与比较[J].国际经贸探索,2017(10):80-93
[18]何春,崔万田.城镇化的减贫效应---基于发展中国家的实证检验[J].城市问题,2017(7):9-17
(1)东部地区为北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南;中部地区为山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;西部地区为四川、重庆、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古。