基于DSSAT模型模拟高低温灾害对荆州市中稻产量的影响及对策
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摘要
为筛选出湖北省荆州市中稻种植的最适播期,利用DSSAT模型评估荆州市中稻生长季内高温和低温灾害发生变化规律及高温灾害对水稻产量的影响,拟通过播期调整降低该区域水稻生产的高低温灾害风险。采用DSSAT 4.5模型和近36年来逐日气象资料对1971—2006年荆州市中稻的高低温灾害风险及高温对产量的影响进行定量化评估,并确定该区域中稻种植的最适播期。结果表明,与1971—1986年相比较,1987—2006年荆州市中稻种植的发生热害与冷害的频率有增大趋势,而且受气候变化的影响,中稻有减产趋势;相比较1971—2006年7个播期的减产率以及原始模拟产量与调整模拟产量,最适播期选择在4月20—25日可一定程度上避开中稻在孕穗—扬花期遇到高温热害。在全球变暖的背景下,荆州市中稻最适播期为4月20—25日可有效避开中稻孕穗—扬花期的高温影响,为该区域中稻抗避高温栽培提供参考依据。
In order to select the optimum sowing period for middle-season rice in Jingzhou City,DSSAT model was used to evaluate the variation law of high and low temperature disasters in the growing season of middle-season rice in Jingzhou City and their impact on rice yield and reduce the risk of high and low temperature disasters to rice production in this region by adjusting the sowing date. A quantitative evaluation of the risk of high and low temperature disasters to the middle-season rice in Jingzhou City and the impact of high temperature an rice yield in the period from 1971-2006 was carried out by using DSSAT4.5 model and nearly36 years' daily meteorological data.Then the optimum sowing date for the middle-season rice in this region was defermined.The result showed: Compared with that in the period from 1917 to 1986,the frequency of heat and chill injury to the middle-season rice in the period from 1987 to 2006 in this region had an ubcreasubg trend,which caused reduced yield; compared with the yield-reducing rate of 7 sowing dates in the period from 1917 to2006 and the initial simulated yield and adjusted simulated yield,the sowing date in the period from April 20 th to April 25 th could avoid the high temperature damage to middle-season rice in its booting stage and flowering stage.Under the background of global warming,the sowing date-April 20th-April 25 th could effectively avoid the high temperature influence on the middle-season rice in its booting stage and flowering stage in Jingzhou City.This study provides reference for antihigh-temperature cultivation of middle-season rice in this region.
In order to select the optimum sowing period for middle-season rice in Jingzhou City,DSSAT model was used to evaluate the variation law of high and low temperature disasters in the growing season of middle-season rice in Jingzhou City and their impact on rice yield and reduce the risk of high and low temperature disasters to rice production in this region by adjusting the sowing date. A quantitative evaluation of the risk of high and low temperature disasters to the middle-season rice in Jingzhou City and the impact of high temperature an rice yield in the period from 1971-2006 was carried out by using DSSAT4.5 model and nearly36 years' daily meteorological data.Then the optimum sowing date for the middle-season rice in this region was defermined.The result showed: Compared with that in the period from 1917 to 1986,the frequency of heat and chill injury to the middle-season rice in the period from 1987 to 2006 in this region had an ubcreasubg trend,which caused reduced yield; compared with the yield-reducing rate of 7 sowing dates in the period from 1917 to2006 and the initial simulated yield and adjusted simulated yield,the sowing date in the period from April 20 th to April 25 th could avoid the high temperature damage to middle-season rice in its booting stage and flowering stage.Under the background of global warming,the sowing date-April 20th-April 25 th could effectively avoid the high temperature influence on the middle-season rice in its booting stage and flowering stage in Jingzhou City.This study provides reference for antihigh-temperature cultivation of middle-season rice in this region.
引文
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[9]王晓煜,杨晓光,吕硕,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅻ.气候变暖对黑龙江寒地水稻安全种植区域和冷害风险的影响[J].中国农业科学,2016(10):1859-1871.Wang X Y,Yang X G,LǔS,et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in ChinaⅫ:the possible effects of climate warming on geographical shift in safe planting area of rice in cold areas and the risk analysis of chilling damage[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2016(10):1859-1871.
[10]李勇,杨晓光,叶清,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅸ:长江中下游地区单双季稻高低温灾害风险及其产量影响[J].中国农业科学,2013(19):3997-4006.Li Y,Yang X G,Ye Q,et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in ChinaⅨ:the risk of high and low temperature disasters for single and double rice and its impacts on rice yield in the middle-lower yangtze plain[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013(19):3997-4006.
[11]朱珊,李永辉,熊宏亮,等.低温胁迫对孕穗期水稻叶片内源激素的影响[J].江西农业大学学报,2014,36(1):21-25.Zhu S,Li Y H,Xiong H L,et al.Effect of low temperature stress on endogenous hormones in rice[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitis Jiangxiensis,2014,36(1):21-25.
[12]杨军,陈小荣,朱昌兰,等.氮肥和高温对早稻淦鑫203产量、SPAD值及可溶性糖含量的影响[J].江西农业大学学报,2015,37(5):759-764.Yang J,Chen X R,Zhu C L,et al.Effects of nitrogen level and high temperature treatment on yield,SPAD value,and soluble sugar content of early rice Ganxin 203[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2015,37(5):759-764.
[13]刘建刚,褚庆全,王光耀,等.基于DSSAT模型的氮肥管理下华北地区冬小麦产量差的模拟[J].农业工程学报,201,23:124-129.Liu J G,Chu Q Q,Wang G Y,et al.Simulating yield gap of winter wheat in response to nitrogen management in North China Plain based on DSSAT model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,23:124-129.
[14]文新亚,陈阜.基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对不同品种冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2011(S2):74-79.Wen X Y,Chen F.Simulation of climatic change impacts on yield potential of typical wheat varieties based on DSSAT model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2011(S2):74-79.
[15]石全红,刘建刚,陈阜,等.长江中下游地区水稻产量差及分布特征研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2012(1):33-39.Shi Q H,Liu J G,Chen F,et al.Researches on rice yield gaps and their distribution characteristics in middle and lower area of Yangtze River Valley[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2012(1):33-39.
[16]刘海龙,诸叶平,李世娟,等.DSSAT作物系统模型的发展与应用[J].农业网络信息,2011(11):5-12.Liu H L,Zhu Y P,Li S J,et al.Development and application of DSSAT cropping system model[J].Agriculture Network Information,2011(11):5-12.
[17]史源,李益农,白美健,等.DSSAT作物模型进展以及在农田水管理中的应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2015(1):15-19.Shi Y,Li Y N,Bai M J,et al.Research on the development and application of DSSAT cropping system model in water management and irrigation[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2015(1):15-19.
[18]刘玉汐.河套灌区水稻对低温冷害敏感性的模拟研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2015.Liu Y X.Chilling damage sensitivity simulation of rice in hetao irrigation area[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science,2015.
[19]杜朝正.基于DSSAT模型的中国水稻产量时空模拟研究[J].现代农业科技,2015(10):211-213.Du C Z.Study on spatial and temporal simulation of rice yield in China based on DSSAT model[J].Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2015(10):211-213.
[20]张倩,赵艳霞,王春乙.长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响[J].灾害学,2011(4):57-62.Zhang Q,Zhao Y X,Wang C Y.Study on the impact of high temperature damage to rice in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Catastrophology,2011(4):57-62.
[21]张倩.长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响评估[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2010.Zhang Q.Study on the impact assessment of high temperature damage for rice in the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,2010.
[22]李友信.长江中下游地区水稻高温热害分布规律研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2015.Li Y X.Study on the distribution of high temperature damage to rice in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2015.
[23]李林,沙国栋,陆景淮.水稻灌浆期温光因子对稻米品质的影响[J].中国农业气象,1989(3):33-38.Li L,Sha G D,Lu J H.Effect of temperature and light factors on rice quality during grain filling stage in Rice[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,1989(3):33-38.
[24]李守华,田小海,黄永平,等.江汉平原近50年中稻花期危害高温发生的初步分析[J].中国农业气象,2007(1):5-8.Li S H,Tian X H,Huang Y P,et al.Preliminary analysis of high temperature harm at middle-season rice florescence on jianghan plain in last 50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007(1):5-8.
[25]兰华雄,王建明,杨居钿.水稻高产气象生态分析[J].亚热带农业研究,2005(2):50-54.Lan H X,Wang J M,Yang J D.Analysis of meteorological ecology for high yield of rice[J].Subtropical Agriculture Research,2005(2):50-54.
[26]Datta S K D.Principles and practices of rice production.[J].Principles&Practices of Rice Production,1981.
[27]Yoshida S.Tropical climate and its influence on rice[M].Philippines:International Rice Research Institute,1978.
[28]Yoshida S.Fundamentals of Rice Crop Science[M].Fundamentals of rice crop science,1981.
[29]冯德花,蒋跃林,杨太明,等.沿淮地区高温热害分布特征及其对水稻产量的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2011,16:9680-9682.Feng D H,Jiang Y L,Yang T M,et al.Distribution Characteristics of High Temperature Damage and Its Influence on the Rice Yield in the Area along Huaihe River[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2011,16:9680-9682.
[30]中国气象局.寒露风等级标准[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.China meteorological administration.Cold dew wind level[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008.
[31]李军,邵明安,樊廷录,等.黄土高原作物生长模型DSSAT3数据库组建[J].干旱地区农业研究,2001(1):120-126.Li J,Shao M A,Fan,T L,et al.Databases creation of crop growth model DSSAT3 on the loess plateau region of China[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2001(1):120-126.
[32]任景全.气候变化背景下江苏省水稻高温热害模拟研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.Ren J Q.Simulation of the Heat Injury on Rice Production in Jiangsu Province under the Compact of Climate Chang[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University Of Information Science,2013.
[2]章秀福,王丹英,方福平,等.中国粮食安全和水稻生产[J].农业现代化研究,2005(2):85-88.Zhang X F,Wang D Y,Fang F P,et al.Food safety and rice production in China[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2005(2):85-88.
[3]陈升孛.湖北省水稻热害与夏季冷害变化规律及防御对策研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2012.Chen S B.Study on changes and precaution policy of rice heat and chilling injury in summer in Hubei Province[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2012.
[4]张方方.湖北省水稻高温热害发生规律的研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2006.Zhang F F.The spatial and temporal distribution of rice heat injury in Hubei Province[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2006.
[5]万素琴,陈晨,刘志雄,等.气候变化背景下湖北省水稻高温热害时空分布[J].中国农业气象,2009(S2):316-319.Wan S Q,Chen C,Liu Z X,et al.Space-time distribution of heat injury on rice in Hubei Province under climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009(S2):316-319.
[6]Hundal S S,Prabhjyot K.Evaluation of agronomic practices for rice using computer simulation model,CERES-Rice[J].Oryza,1999,36:63-65.
[7]Pasuquin E,Lafarge T,Tubana B.Transplanting young seedlings in irrigated rice fields:early and high tiller production enhanced grain yield[J].Field Crops Research,2008,105(1/2):141-155.
[8]Patel J R.Response of rice(Oryza sativa)to time of transplanting,spacing and age of seedlings[J].Indian Journal of Agronomy,1999,44(2):344-346.
[9]王晓煜,杨晓光,吕硕,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅻ.气候变暖对黑龙江寒地水稻安全种植区域和冷害风险的影响[J].中国农业科学,2016(10):1859-1871.Wang X Y,Yang X G,LǔS,et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in ChinaⅫ:the possible effects of climate warming on geographical shift in safe planting area of rice in cold areas and the risk analysis of chilling damage[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2016(10):1859-1871.
[10]李勇,杨晓光,叶清,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅸ:长江中下游地区单双季稻高低温灾害风险及其产量影响[J].中国农业科学,2013(19):3997-4006.Li Y,Yang X G,Ye Q,et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in ChinaⅨ:the risk of high and low temperature disasters for single and double rice and its impacts on rice yield in the middle-lower yangtze plain[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013(19):3997-4006.
[11]朱珊,李永辉,熊宏亮,等.低温胁迫对孕穗期水稻叶片内源激素的影响[J].江西农业大学学报,2014,36(1):21-25.Zhu S,Li Y H,Xiong H L,et al.Effect of low temperature stress on endogenous hormones in rice[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitis Jiangxiensis,2014,36(1):21-25.
[12]杨军,陈小荣,朱昌兰,等.氮肥和高温对早稻淦鑫203产量、SPAD值及可溶性糖含量的影响[J].江西农业大学学报,2015,37(5):759-764.Yang J,Chen X R,Zhu C L,et al.Effects of nitrogen level and high temperature treatment on yield,SPAD value,and soluble sugar content of early rice Ganxin 203[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2015,37(5):759-764.
[13]刘建刚,褚庆全,王光耀,等.基于DSSAT模型的氮肥管理下华北地区冬小麦产量差的模拟[J].农业工程学报,201,23:124-129.Liu J G,Chu Q Q,Wang G Y,et al.Simulating yield gap of winter wheat in response to nitrogen management in North China Plain based on DSSAT model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,23:124-129.
[14]文新亚,陈阜.基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对不同品种冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2011(S2):74-79.Wen X Y,Chen F.Simulation of climatic change impacts on yield potential of typical wheat varieties based on DSSAT model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2011(S2):74-79.
[15]石全红,刘建刚,陈阜,等.长江中下游地区水稻产量差及分布特征研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2012(1):33-39.Shi Q H,Liu J G,Chen F,et al.Researches on rice yield gaps and their distribution characteristics in middle and lower area of Yangtze River Valley[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2012(1):33-39.
[16]刘海龙,诸叶平,李世娟,等.DSSAT作物系统模型的发展与应用[J].农业网络信息,2011(11):5-12.Liu H L,Zhu Y P,Li S J,et al.Development and application of DSSAT cropping system model[J].Agriculture Network Information,2011(11):5-12.
[17]史源,李益农,白美健,等.DSSAT作物模型进展以及在农田水管理中的应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2015(1):15-19.Shi Y,Li Y N,Bai M J,et al.Research on the development and application of DSSAT cropping system model in water management and irrigation[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2015(1):15-19.
[18]刘玉汐.河套灌区水稻对低温冷害敏感性的模拟研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2015.Liu Y X.Chilling damage sensitivity simulation of rice in hetao irrigation area[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science,2015.
[19]杜朝正.基于DSSAT模型的中国水稻产量时空模拟研究[J].现代农业科技,2015(10):211-213.Du C Z.Study on spatial and temporal simulation of rice yield in China based on DSSAT model[J].Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,2015(10):211-213.
[20]张倩,赵艳霞,王春乙.长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响[J].灾害学,2011(4):57-62.Zhang Q,Zhao Y X,Wang C Y.Study on the impact of high temperature damage to rice in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Catastrophology,2011(4):57-62.
[21]张倩.长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响评估[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2010.Zhang Q.Study on the impact assessment of high temperature damage for rice in the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,2010.
[22]李友信.长江中下游地区水稻高温热害分布规律研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2015.Li Y X.Study on the distribution of high temperature damage to rice in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2015.
[23]李林,沙国栋,陆景淮.水稻灌浆期温光因子对稻米品质的影响[J].中国农业气象,1989(3):33-38.Li L,Sha G D,Lu J H.Effect of temperature and light factors on rice quality during grain filling stage in Rice[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,1989(3):33-38.
[24]李守华,田小海,黄永平,等.江汉平原近50年中稻花期危害高温发生的初步分析[J].中国农业气象,2007(1):5-8.Li S H,Tian X H,Huang Y P,et al.Preliminary analysis of high temperature harm at middle-season rice florescence on jianghan plain in last 50 years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007(1):5-8.
[25]兰华雄,王建明,杨居钿.水稻高产气象生态分析[J].亚热带农业研究,2005(2):50-54.Lan H X,Wang J M,Yang J D.Analysis of meteorological ecology for high yield of rice[J].Subtropical Agriculture Research,2005(2):50-54.
[26]Datta S K D.Principles and practices of rice production.[J].Principles&Practices of Rice Production,1981.
[27]Yoshida S.Tropical climate and its influence on rice[M].Philippines:International Rice Research Institute,1978.
[28]Yoshida S.Fundamentals of Rice Crop Science[M].Fundamentals of rice crop science,1981.
[29]冯德花,蒋跃林,杨太明,等.沿淮地区高温热害分布特征及其对水稻产量的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2011,16:9680-9682.Feng D H,Jiang Y L,Yang T M,et al.Distribution Characteristics of High Temperature Damage and Its Influence on the Rice Yield in the Area along Huaihe River[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2011,16:9680-9682.
[30]中国气象局.寒露风等级标准[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.China meteorological administration.Cold dew wind level[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008.
[31]李军,邵明安,樊廷录,等.黄土高原作物生长模型DSSAT3数据库组建[J].干旱地区农业研究,2001(1):120-126.Li J,Shao M A,Fan,T L,et al.Databases creation of crop growth model DSSAT3 on the loess plateau region of China[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2001(1):120-126.
[32]任景全.气候变化背景下江苏省水稻高温热害模拟研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.Ren J Q.Simulation of the Heat Injury on Rice Production in Jiangsu Province under the Compact of Climate Chang[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University Of Information Science,2013.