自然环境高温对长江中下游地区中稻结实率的影响及模拟
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摘要
利用长江中下游地区6个代表站2004—2011年中籼迟熟水稻品种区试资料及1984—2013年逐日最高气温资料,通过分析田间环境下逐日最高气温与水稻结实率的关系发现,长江中下游地区中稻高温敏感时段主要在水稻齐穗期前36天至齐穗期前4天。其中,齐穗期前14天左右(减数分裂期前后)高温对结实率的影响最为显著。在此基础上,利用水稻高温败育模型,根据各样本水稻减数分裂期逐日最高气温,实现研究区域站点尺度水稻高温败育的定量模拟预测。模型对高温年份2004年和2007年各站点水稻相对结实率模拟和预测的均方根误差分别为4.74%和2.84%。分析表明,利用基于水稻高温败育模型的定量模拟方法,可对长江中下游地区水稻高温热害情况进行较好预测。
Daily relationships between the maximum temperature in field conditions and rice seed setting rate were investigated by using the medium season late maturity hybrid rice variety regional trial data during 2004—2011 and daily maximum temperature data during 1984—2013 at 6 representative stations in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley. It was pointed out that the high temperature sensitive period of the midseason rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley mainly sustained from 4 to 36 days before the full heading stage. High temperature around 14 days before the full heading stage( near the meiotic phase) had the most important influence on the midseason rice seed rate in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley. According to the daily maximum temperature during the meiotic phase,the high temperature-induced rice sterility simulation model which was developed by our project team was used to quantitatively forecast the high temperature-induced sterility of rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley at the site scale. The RMSE of the simulated( year 2004) and forecasted( year 2007)relative seed setting rate was 4. 74% and 2. 84% respectively. The analysis showed that the high temperature damage of rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley could be well forecasted by using the quantitative forecast method based on the high temperature-induced rice sterility simulation model.
Daily relationships between the maximum temperature in field conditions and rice seed setting rate were investigated by using the medium season late maturity hybrid rice variety regional trial data during 2004—2011 and daily maximum temperature data during 1984—2013 at 6 representative stations in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley. It was pointed out that the high temperature sensitive period of the midseason rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley mainly sustained from 4 to 36 days before the full heading stage. High temperature around 14 days before the full heading stage( near the meiotic phase) had the most important influence on the midseason rice seed rate in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley. According to the daily maximum temperature during the meiotic phase,the high temperature-induced rice sterility simulation model which was developed by our project team was used to quantitatively forecast the high temperature-induced sterility of rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley at the site scale. The RMSE of the simulated( year 2004) and forecasted( year 2007)relative seed setting rate was 4. 74% and 2. 84% respectively. The analysis showed that the high temperature damage of rice in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley could be well forecasted by using the quantitative forecast method based on the high temperature-induced rice sterility simulation model.
引文
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[20]谢志清,杜银,高苹,等.江淮流域水稻高温热害灾损变化及应对策略[J].气象,2013,39(6):774-781.
[21]上海植物生理研究所人工气候室.高温对早稻开花结实的影响及其防治Ⅰ.高温对早稻灌浆期的影响[J].植物学报,1976,18(3):250-257.
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[24]石春林,金之庆,汤日圣,等.水稻高温败育模拟模型[J].中国水稻科学,2007,21(2):220-222.
[25]张玉屏,向镜,朱德峰,等.高温对中早39单穗质量及结实率的影响[J].中国稻米,2013,19(2):33-34.
[26]刘伟昌,张雪芬,余卫东,等.水稻高温热害风险评估方法研究[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(1):33-38.
[27]张倩,赵艳霞,王春乙.长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):57-62.
[28]Peng S B,Huang J L,Sheehy J E,et al.Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2004,101(27):9971-9975.
[29]赵海燕,姚凤梅,张勇,等.长江中下游水稻开花灌浆期气象要素与结实率和粒重的相关性分析[J].中国农业科学,2006,39(9):1765-1771.
[30]童志婷,李守华,段维新,等.中稻花期致害高温主导的田间气象特征及其对不同杂交组合水稻结实的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(5):1163-1166.
[31]陶龙兴,谈惠娟,王熹,等.超级杂交稻国稻6号对开花结实期高温热害的反应[J].中国水稻科学,2007,21(5):518-524.
[32]石春林,金之庆,郑建初,等.减数分裂期高温对水稻颖花结实率影响的定量分析[J].作物学报,2008,34(4):627-631.
[2]秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,等.气候变化科学的最新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2):63-73.
[3]熊亚军,于平,扈海波.国内高温气候变化事实及其灾害特征研究进展[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):194-198.
[4]秦秀丽,李丽平,魏丽云.1961-2010年山西极端气温年均发生频率的时空特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014,8(2):59-64.
[5]李焕,白松竹,王干成.阿勒泰地区1961-2007年夏季平均最高气温及高温日数变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014,8(3):56-60.
[6]戴泽军,李易芝,刘志雄,等.1961-2013年湖南夏季高温气候特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(5):706-711.
[7]周广胜.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):80-94.
[8]姜燕敏,李靖,卢钊,等.浙江丽水高温的多时间尺度气候变化特征及趋势演变[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):421-426.
[9]苗运玲,卓世新,李如琦,等.新疆哈密高温气候特征及其环流形势分型[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):38-43.
[10]江敏,石春林,薛昌颖,等.A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(4):38-46.
[11]田小海,罗海伟,周恒多,等.中国水稻热害研究历史、进展与展望[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(22):166-168.
[12]郑建初,盛婧,汤日圣,等.南京和安庆地区高温发生规律及高温对水稻结实率的影响[J].江苏农业学报,2007,23(1):1-4.
[13]冯德花,蒋跃林,杨太明,等.沿淮地区高温热害分布特征及其对水稻产量的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(16):9680-9682,9716.
[14]梁晓妮,雷俊,骆月珍,等.1955-2014年杭州极端气温和降水指数变化特征[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(3):68-74.
[15]李守华,田小海,黄永平,等.江汉平原近50年中稻花期危害高温发生的初步分析[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):5-8.
[16]马晓群,许莹,赵海燕.江淮地区气温变化对一季中稻产量和产量构成的影响[J].地理研究,2008,27(3):603-612.
[17]江敏,金之庆,石春林,等.长江中下游地区水稻孕穗开花期高温发生规律及其对产量的影响[J].生态学杂志,2010,29(4):649-656.
[18]许吟隆,赵海燕,姚凤梅,等.长江中下游高温事件对中稻产量构成要素影响的统计分析[J].中国农业气象,2005,25(增刊):20-23.
[19]于堃,宋静,高苹.江苏水稻高温热害的发生规律与特征[J].气象科学,2010,30(4):530-533.
[20]谢志清,杜银,高苹,等.江淮流域水稻高温热害灾损变化及应对策略[J].气象,2013,39(6):774-781.
[21]上海植物生理研究所人工气候室.高温对早稻开花结实的影响及其防治Ⅰ.高温对早稻灌浆期的影响[J].植物学报,1976,18(3):250-257.
[22]上海植物生理研究所人工气候室.高温对早稻开花结实的影响及其防治Ⅱ.早稻开花期高温对开花结实的影响[J].植物学报,1976,18(3):323-329.
[23]Satake T,Yoshida S.High temperature-induced sterility in Indica Rices at flowering[J].Japanese Journal of Crop Science,1978,47(1):6-17.
[24]石春林,金之庆,汤日圣,等.水稻高温败育模拟模型[J].中国水稻科学,2007,21(2):220-222.
[25]张玉屏,向镜,朱德峰,等.高温对中早39单穗质量及结实率的影响[J].中国稻米,2013,19(2):33-34.
[26]刘伟昌,张雪芬,余卫东,等.水稻高温热害风险评估方法研究[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(1):33-38.
[27]张倩,赵艳霞,王春乙.长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):57-62.
[28]Peng S B,Huang J L,Sheehy J E,et al.Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2004,101(27):9971-9975.
[29]赵海燕,姚凤梅,张勇,等.长江中下游水稻开花灌浆期气象要素与结实率和粒重的相关性分析[J].中国农业科学,2006,39(9):1765-1771.
[30]童志婷,李守华,段维新,等.中稻花期致害高温主导的田间气象特征及其对不同杂交组合水稻结实的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(5):1163-1166.
[31]陶龙兴,谈惠娟,王熹,等.超级杂交稻国稻6号对开花结实期高温热害的反应[J].中国水稻科学,2007,21(5):518-524.
[32]石春林,金之庆,郑建初,等.减数分裂期高温对水稻颖花结实率影响的定量分析[J].作物学报,2008,34(4):627-631.