摘要
冰冻圈是气候系统影响最直接和最敏感的圈层。在全球变化背景下,冰冻圈变化与生物圈、岩石圈、水圈、大气圈、人类圈之间的相互作用日趋加剧。特别地,冰冻圈快速变化对其影响区经济社会系统产生了广泛而深刻的负面影响,甚至危及人类福祉、经济社会系统的健康、和谐、持续发展。鉴于冰冻圈区位劣势及其较为落后的经济水平,其应对冰冻圈变化的能力极为有限。目前,适应仍然是冰冻圈应对气候变化的主要途径。冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响分析是适应冰冻圈快速变化的基础,其适应性管理战略则是减轻冰冻圈快速变化不利影响、降低自然和经济社会系统防御其不利影响脆弱性的最终目标。
The cryosphere is the most direct and most sensitive spheres in climate system. In the context of global change,the interaction cryospheric changes with biosphere,lithosphere,hydrosphere,atmosphere and anthroposphere increasingly intensified. Especially,the rapid cryosphere changes had also a wide-ranging and profound negative impact on economic and social systems,and even endangered human well-being,and the healthy,harmonious and sustainable development of economic and social systems. Taking into account the geographical disadvantage of cryosphere and its relatively backward economic level,its ability to cope with or resist cryosphere changes is extremely limited. Currently,the adaptation is still the main way to tackle climate change impacts on cryosphere. The analysis of integrated impacts of cryosphere on economic and social system is the basis to adapt to the rapid change of cryosphere,and its adaptive management strategy is the ultimate goal to mitigate the adverse effects of rapid cryosphere changes and reduce the vulnerability for defending the adverse effects from natural,economic and social system
引文
[1] Qin Dahe,Yao Tandong,Ding Yongjian,et al. Introduction to cryosphere science[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2018.[秦大河,姚檀栋,丁永建,等.冰冻圈科学概论[M].北京:科学出版社,2018.]
[2] IPCC. Climate change 2013:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[3] Changnon S A. Present and future economic impacts of climate extremes in the United States[J]. Global Environmental Change Part B:Environmental Hazards,2003,5(3/4):47-50.
[4] Visser H,Bouwman A,Petersen A,et al. Statistical study of w eather-related disasters:Past,present and future[M]. Hague:PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,2012.
[5] Gobiet A,Kotlarski S,Beniston M,et al. 21st century climate change in the European Alps:a review[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2014,493:1138-1151.
[6] Kane S M,Shogren J F. Linking adaptation and mitigation in climate change policy[J]. Climatic Change,2000,45(1):75-102.
[7] Smit B,Pilifosova O. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity[M]//M c Carthy J J,Canziani O F,Leary N A. Climate change 2001:impacts,adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001:877-912.
[8] Grothmann T,Patt A. Adaptive capacity and human cognition:The process of individual adaptation to climate change[J]. Global Environmental Change,2005,(15):199-213.
[9] Vaughan D G,Comiso J C,Allison I,et al. Observations:cryosphere[M]//Stocker T F,Qin Dahe,Plattner G K,et al. Climate change 2013:the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[10]Liu Shiyin,Yao Xiaojun,Guo Wanqin,et al. The contemporary glaciers in China based on the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(1):3-16.[刘时银,姚晓军,郭万钦,等.基于第二次冰川编目的中国冰川现状[J].地理学报,2015,70(1):3-16.]
[11]Wu Tonghua,Li Shuxun,Cheng Guodong,et al. Using ground penetrating radar to detect permafrost degradation in the northern limit of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Cold Regions Science and Technology,2005,41:211-219.
[12]Liu Guangyue,Zhao Lin,Xie Changwei,et al. Variation characteristics and impact factors of the depth of zero annual amplitude of ground temperature in permafrost regions on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(5):1189-1200.[刘广岳,赵林,谢昌卫,等.青藏高原多年冻土区地温年变化深度的变化规律及影响因素[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(5):1189-1200]
[13]Zhao Lin,Marchenko S S,Sharkhuu N,et al. Regional changes of permafrost in Central Asia[C]//Proceedings of 9th International Conference on Permafrost,2008 Fairbanks,Alaska,US.2008:2061-2076.
[14] Wang Chunxue,Li Dongliang. Spatial-temporal variations of snow cover days and the maximum depth of snow cover in China during recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2012,34(2):248-252.[王春学,李栋梁.中国近50 a积雪日数与最大积雪深度的时空变化规律[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(2):248-252.]
[15]Kintisch E,Kerr R A. Global warming,hotter than ever[J].Science,2007,318(5858):1846-1847.
[16]Hallegatte S,Przyluski V,Vogt-Schilb A. Building world narratives for climate change impact,adaptation and vulnerability analyses[J]. Nature Climate Change,2011,1(3):151-155.
[17] Rheinberger C. Learning from the past:statistical performance measures for avalanche w arning services[J]. Natural Hazards,2013,65(3):1519-1533.
[18]Frey H,Haeberli W,Linsbauer A,et al. Multi level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science,2010,10:339-352.
[19] Wang Shijin,Jiao Shitai. Mountain glacier tourism and climate change:impacts and adaptation[M]//M ihaliˇc T,Gartner W C.Tourism and developments-issues and challenges. Nova Science Publishers,Inc.,2013:93-119.
[20]Rixen C,Telch M,Lardelli C,et al. Winter tourism and climate change in the Alps:an assessment of resource consumption,snow reliability,and future snow making potential[J]. M ountain Research and Development,2010,31(3):229-236.
[21]Wang Shijin,Cao Weihong. Climate change perspectives in an Alpine area,Southw est China:a case analysis of local residents'view s[J]. Ecological Indicators,2015,53:211-219.
[22]Orlove B,Wiegandt E,Luckman B H. The place of glaciers in natural and cultural landscapes[M]//Orlove B E,Wiegandt E,Luckma B H. Darkening peaks:glacier retreat,science and society. Berkeley:University of California Press,2008:7-25.
[23]Kaplan J O,New M. Arctic climate change with a 2℃global w arming:timing,climate patterns and vegetation change[J].Climatic Change,2006,79(3/4):213-241.
[24]Ims R A,Ehrich D. Arctic Biodiversity Assessment,Terrestrial Ecosystems[M]. Iceland:Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna(CAFF),2012.
[25]Tape K,Sturm M,Racine C. The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic[J]. Global Change Biology,2006,12:686-702.
[26]Wang Genxu,Li Yuanshou,Wang Yibo. Land surface process and environmental change in the river sources of Tibet Plateau[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2010.[王根绪,李元寿,王一博.青藏高原河源区地表过程与环境变化[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.]
[27]State Forestry Bureau. Bulletin of degradation and desertification state in China[R]. State Forestry Bureau,2011.[国家林业局.中国荒漠化和沙化状况公报[R].国家林业局,2011.]
[28]Radic V,Hock R. Glaciers in the Earth's hydrological cycle:assessments of glacier mass and runoff changes on global and regional scales[J]. Surveys in Geophysics,2014,35,813-837.
[29]Reynolds J F,Smith D M S,Lambin E F,et al. Global desertification:building a science for dryland development[J]. Science,2007,316:847-851.
[30]Aerts R,Cornelissen J H C,Dorrepaal E. Plant Performance in a w armer w orld:general responses of plants from cold,northern biomes and the importance of w inter and spring events[J]. Plant Ecology,2006,182:65-77.
[31]Shen Yongping,Su Hongchao,Wang Guoya,et al. The responses of glaciers and snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang(I):hydrological effects[J]. Journal of glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(3):513-527.[沈永平,苏宏超,王国亚,等.新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(I):水文效应[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(3):513-527.]
[32] Hock R,Jansson P,Braun L N. Modelling the response of mountain glacier discharge to climate w arming[J]. Global Change and M ountain Regions,2005,(23):243-252.
[33]Ye Baisheng,Ding Yongjian,Liu Fengjing,et al. Responses of various-sized alpine glaciers and runoff to climatic change[J].Journal of Glaciology,2003,49(164):1-7.
[34]Hu Ruji,Jiang Fengchun,Wang Yajun. Assessment on the glacial w ater resources in Xinjiang,China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2003,20(3):187-188.[胡汝骥,姜逢清,王亚俊.新疆雪冰水资源的环境评估[J].干旱区研究,2003,20(3):187-188.]
[35]Gao Xing,Zhang Shiqiang,Ye Baisheng,et al. Recent changes of glacier runoff in the Hexi inland river basin[J]. Advances in Water Science,2011,22(3):344-346.[高鑫,张世强,叶柏生,等.河西内陆河流域冰川融水近期变化[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):344-346.]
[36]Whiteman C A. Cold region hazards and risks[M]. New York:John Wiley and Sons Publishing,2011.
[37]Carey M P. People and glaciers in the peruvian andes:a history of climate change and natural disasters,1941-1980[D]. California:Dissertation in History in the Office of Graduate Studies of the University of California,2005.
[38]JanskyB,Sobr M,Engel Z. Outburst flood hazard:case studies from the Tien-Shan M ountains,Kyrgyzstan[J]. LimnologicaEcology and M anagement of Inland Waters,2010,40(4):358-364.
[39] Silverton N A,Mc Intosh S E,Kim S,et al. Avalanche safety practices in Utah[J]. Wilderness and Environmental M edicine,2007,18:264-270.
[40] Wang Shijin,Ren Jiawen. A review of the progresses of avalanche hazards research[J]. Progress in Geography,2012,31(11):1529-1536.[王世金,任贾文.国内外雪崩灾害研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(11):1529-1536.]
[41]Wang Shijin,Qin Dahe,Xiao Cunde. Moraine-dammed lake distribution and outburst flood risk in the Chinese Himalaya[J].Journal of Glaciology,2015,61(225):115-126.
[42]Wang Shijin,Wei Yanqiang,Fang Miao. Integrated risk assessment of snow disaster in the Three Rivers Source Region,China[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2014,22(2):108-116.[王世金,魏彦强,方苗.青海省三江源牧区雪灾综合风险评估与管理[J].草业学报,2014,22(2):108-116.]
[43]Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China. Ministry of Civil Affairs informed the recent snow and ice disaster and relief w ork[EB/OL].(2008-02-25)[2016-10-12]. http://w w w. mca. gov. cn/article/zw gk/mzyw/200802/20080200011960. shtml.[民政部.民政部通报近期低温雨雪冰冻灾情和救灾工作情况[EB/OL].(2008-02-25)[2016-10-12]. http://w w w. mca. gov. cn/article/zw gk/mzyw/200802/20080200011960. shtml.]
[44]Wu Qingbai. Progress and major achievements of permafrost engineering in China[M]//Cold and Arid Region Environment and Engineering Research Institute,CAS. 50 years of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Sciences in China. Beijing:Science Press,2009.[吴青柏.中国冻土工程的进展和主要成就[M]//中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所.中国寒区旱区环境与工程50年.北京:科学出版社,2009.]
[45]Nelson F E,Anisimov O A,Shiklomanov N I. Subsidence risk from thaw ing permafrost[J]. Nature,2001,410:889-890.
[46]Xue Xingong,Bao Liming,Zhou Xiaowen. Report on the Canadian permafrost railw ay[J]. Science and Technology Exchange,2002,32(1):1-7.[薛新功,包黎明,周孝文.加拿大冻土铁路考察报告[J].科技交流,2002,32(1):1-7.]
[47]Nelson F E,Anisimov O A,Shiklomanov N I. Climate change and hazard zonation in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions[J].Natural Hazards,2002,26:203-225.
[48]Wang Yongping,Jin Huijun,Li Guoyu,et al. Secondary geohazards along the operating M ohe-Jagdaqi section of ChinaRussia Crude Oil Pipeline in permafrost regions:a case study on a seasonal frost mound at the Site M DX364[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(3):731-739.[王永平,金会军,李国玉,等.漠河-加格达奇段多年冻土区中俄原油管道运营以来的次生地质灾害研究——以MDX364处的季节性冻胀丘为例[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(3):731-739.]
[49]Cheng Guodong. A roadbed cooling approach for the construction of Qinghai-Tibet Railw ay[J]. Cold Regions Science and Technology,2005,42:169-176.
[50]Feng Wei,Zhong Min,Xu Houze. Global sea level changes estimated from satellite altimetry,satellite gravimetry and Argo data during 2005-2013[J]. Progress in Geophysics,2014,29(2):471-477.[冯伟,钟敏,许厚泽.联合卫星测高、卫星重力和海洋浮标资料研究年的全球海平面变化[J].地球物理学进展,2014,29(2):471-477.]
[51]Cazenave A,Lombard A,Llovel W. Present-day sea level rise:a synthesis[J]. Comptes Rendus Geoscience,2008,340(11):761-770.
[52]Cazenave A,Dominh K,Guinehut S,et al. Sea level budget over 2003-2008:a reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry,satellite altimetry and Argo[J]. Glob Planet Change,2009,65:83-88.
[53] IPCC. Workshop Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change w orkshop on sea level rise and ice sheet instabilities[M]. Bern:University of Bern,2010.
[54]DARA and Climate Vulnerable Forum. Climate vulnerability monitor:a guide to the cold calculus of a hot planet[R]. Fundación DARA Internacional,2012.
[55]Terry J P,Falkland A C. Responses of atoll freshwater lenses to storm-surge overw ash in the Northern Cook Islands[J]. Hydrogeology Journal,2010,18(3):749-759.
[56]Zheng Xianxin,Wu Qiang,Ying Yufei,et al. Impact s of relative sea level rising and strategies of control of land subsidence in coastal region of China[J]. Bulletin of Science an d Technology,2001,17(6):51-55.[郑铣鑫,武强,应玉飞,等.中国沿海地区相对海平面上升的影响及地面沉降防治策略[J].科技通报,2001,17(6):51-55.]
[57] Emmanuel K,Spence B. Climate change implications for water resource management in Caribbean tourism[J]. Worldw ide Hospitality and Tourism Themes,2009,1(3):252-268.
[58]Cashman A,Nurse L,Charlery J. Climate change in the Caribbean:the w ater management implications[J]. Journal of Environment and Development,2010,19(1):42-67.
[59]Walsh K J E,Mc Innes K L,Mc Bride J L. Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific:a regional assessment[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2012,80:149-164.
[60] Liu Zhongmin,Zhang Demin. Ocean domain unconventional safety intimidate and the present international connection influence[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China,2004(4):60-64.
[61]ACIA. Impacts of a warming arctic:Arctic climate impact assessment[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2004.
[62]UNEP. Global outlook for ice and snow[M]. Arendal,Norway:UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2007:48-49.
[63]Renner M,Salo S,Eisner L B,et al. Timing of ice retreat alters seabird abundances and distributions in the southeast Bering Sea[J]. Biology letters,2016,12(9):20160276.
[64] Poulin M,Daugbjerg N,Gradinger R,et al. The pan-Arctic biodiversity of marine pelagic and sea-ice unicellular eukaryotes:a first-attempt assessment[J]. M arine Biodiversity,2011,41(1):13-28.
[65]Chen Yiyu. Some opinions for carrying out regional adaptation of global change research[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2004,19(4):495-499.[陈宜瑜.对开展全球变化区域适应研究的几点看法[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(4):495-499.]
[66]Convertino M,Foran C M,Keisler J M,et al. Enhanced adaptive management:integrating decision analysis,scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the everglades[M]. London,UK:M acmillan Publishers Limited,2013.
[67] Sun Honglie,Zheng Du,Yao Tandong,et al. Protection and construction of the national ecological security shelter zone on Tibetan Plateau[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(1):3-12.[孙鸿烈,郑度,姚檀栋,等.青藏高原国家生态安全屏障保护与建设[J].地理学报,2012,67(1):3-12.]
[68]Walter L F. Climate change and disaster risk management[M].Springer,2013.
[69]Wu Qingbai,Niu Fujun. Permafrost changes and engineering stability in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(2):115-130.[吴青柏,牛富俊.青藏高原多年冻土变化与工程稳定性[J].科学通报,2013,58(2):115-130.]
[70]Qin Dahe,Yao Tandong,Ding Yongjian,et al. Cryosphere science development strategy[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2018.[秦大河,姚檀栋,丁永建,等.冰冻圈科学发展战略[M].北京:科学出版社,2018.]
[71]Qin Dahe,Zhou Botao. Climate change and environmental protection[J]. Impact of Science on Society,2014,4(2):17-22.[秦大河,周波涛.气候变化与环境保护[J].科学与社会,2014,4(2):17-22.]
[72] Qin Dahe. Climate change science and sustainable development[J]. Progress in Geography,2014,33(7):874-882.[秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-882.]
[73]IPCC. Climate Change 2014:impacts,adaptations and vulnerability. Fifth Assessment Report of Working Group II[M]. UK:University Press,2014.