厄尔尼诺现象对黄河流域汛期降水的影响分析
|
摘要
通过收集整理1951年以来黄河流域主汛期(6—9月)报汛水文站及黄河流域相关气象站的月降水资料及期间发生的厄尔尼诺(EL)/拉尼娜(LA)事件,统计分析了1951—2016年黄河流域主汛期降水与同时期的厄尔尼诺事件的相关性,研究了厄尔尼诺事件对黄河流域主汛期降水的影响。根据黄河流域来水特性及气候特征,将黄河流域分为6个区间:兰州以上、兰托区间、山陕区间、泾渭洛河、三花区间及黄河下游。研究结果表明:1951—2016年分别有18次EL事件和14次LA事件发生,厄尔尼诺事件发生总概率为48%。厄尔尼诺事件对黄河流域主汛期降水量有显著影响。EL发展年,黄河流域6个分区的主汛期降水表现为一致性偏少;EL衰减年,黄河流域6个分区的主汛期降水表现为一致性偏多(黄河下游偏少2%)。LA发展年,黄河流域6个分区的主汛期降水表现为一致性的偏多;LA衰减年,黄河流域6个分区的主汛期降水表现为一致性的偏少(兰州以上偏多1%)。
Base on the monthly precipitation data and El Ni■o/La Nina in the stations of the Yellow River since 1951 in main flood season(June to September), we analyzed the correlation between El Ni■o phenomenon and main flood season precipitation data of the Yellow River in the same period during 1951—2016, and researched the effects of the El Ni■o phenomenon on the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River basin. According to the runoff condition and climatic characteristics, the Yellow River basin is divided into 6 districts, including above Lanzhou, Lan-Tuo range, Shan-Shan range, Jing-Wei-Luo range, San-Hua range and Yellow River downstream. The results showed that:there were 18 El Ni■o events and 14 La Nina event in 1951—2016, the total probability of El Ni■o event was 48%. The El Ni■o/La Nina events had significant impact on the precipitation in main flood season of Huang River basin. In the El Ni■o events development years, the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River were less than usual years in all 6 districts.In the El Ni■o events recession years, the main flood season precipitation of the Yellow River were much higher than usual years in all 6 districts(except Yellow River downstream was 2%). In the La Nina events development year, the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River were much higher than usual years, in the La Nina events recession years, the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River were less than usual years(except above Lanzhou was 1%).
Base on the monthly precipitation data and El Ni■o/La Nina in the stations of the Yellow River since 1951 in main flood season(June to September), we analyzed the correlation between El Ni■o phenomenon and main flood season precipitation data of the Yellow River in the same period during 1951—2016, and researched the effects of the El Ni■o phenomenon on the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River basin. According to the runoff condition and climatic characteristics, the Yellow River basin is divided into 6 districts, including above Lanzhou, Lan-Tuo range, Shan-Shan range, Jing-Wei-Luo range, San-Hua range and Yellow River downstream. The results showed that:there were 18 El Ni■o events and 14 La Nina event in 1951—2016, the total probability of El Ni■o event was 48%. The El Ni■o/La Nina events had significant impact on the precipitation in main flood season of Huang River basin. In the El Ni■o events development years, the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River were less than usual years in all 6 districts.In the El Ni■o events recession years, the main flood season precipitation of the Yellow River were much higher than usual years in all 6 districts(except Yellow River downstream was 2%). In the La Nina events development year, the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River were much higher than usual years, in the La Nina events recession years, the main flood season precipitation in the Yellow River were less than usual years(except above Lanzhou was 1%).
引文
[1]陈烈庭.太平洋海气相互作用的时空变化[J].气象学报,1983,41(3):296-304.
[2]钱步东,范钟秀,彭公炳.北极海冰与赤道东太平洋海温的相互影响及其与El NI?O的联系[J].热带气象学报,1994(4):325-334.
[3]许武成,马劲松,王文.关于ENSO事件及其对中国气候影响研究的综述[J].气象学报,2005,25(2):212-220.
[4]昌都地区汛期降水与ENSO事件的关系[J].高原山地气象研究,2014,34(3):58-61.
[5]吴璐,常军,徐岩岩.华北地区春季降水与ENSO的关系[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):21-25.
[6]许武成,周旭,徐邓耀.近50年川中丘陵区气候变化及与ENSO关系研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28 (1):52-56.
[7]周国良,张建云.厄尔尼诺现象及其对我国水文气候的重大影响[J].水文,2002,22(3):14-17.
[8]赵振国.厄尔尼诺现象对北半球大气环流和中国降水的影响[J].大气科学,1996,20(4):422-428.
[9]张庆云,陶诗言.夏季东亚热带和副热带季风与中国东部汛期降水[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(增刊):16-23.
[10]张成扬,蒋跃林,杨崧,等.5月华南降雨前期海温信号特征分析[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(2):29-35.
[11]郑冬晓,杨晓光.ENSO对全球及中国农业气象灾害和粮食产量影响研究进展[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):90-101.
[12]彭莉莉,戴泽军,罗伯良,等.2013年夏季西太平洋副高异常特征及其对湖南高温干旱的影响[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):195-201.
[13]王亚非,李琰,丁一汇.初夏东亚环流对厄尔尼诺的两种响应过程及其对中国降水的影响[J].气象学报,2012,70(1):39-49.
[14]齐冬梅,李英,李跃清,等.2006年高原夏季风强弱变化及其与西南地区东部夏季降水和气温的关系[J].干旱气象,2015,33(4):555-565.
[15]史久恩,林学椿,周琴芳.厄尔尼诺现象和我国夏季(6-8月)降水、气温的关系[J].气象,1983,9(4):2-5.
[16]金祖辉,陶诗言.ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):663-671.
[17]孔春燕,屠其璞.全球变暖背景下厄尔尼诺对中国东北部汛期降水的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(1):84-88.
[18]宗海峰,陈烈庭,张庆云.ENSO与中国夏季降水年际变化关系的不稳定性特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):184-192.
[19]高辉,王永光.ENSO对中国夏季降水可预测性变化的研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(1):131-137.
[20]袁媛,杨辉,李崇银.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):467-478.
[21]宗海锋,张庆云,彭京备.长江流域梅雨的多尺度特征及其与全球海温的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2005,1(1):102-116.
[22]Zhang R,Sumi A,Kimoto M.A diagnostic study of the impact of EI Niňo on the precipitation in China [J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1999,16(2):229-241.
[23]Wang B,Wu R,Fu X.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate [J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(9):1517-1536.
[24]Zong H,Zhang Q.A New Precipitation Index for the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Drought and Flooding in the Reaches of the Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers and Related Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2011,28(2):375-386.
[25]王红桃,包光,胡亚飞.甘肃省1967-2008年气温和降水时空变化[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):34-42.
[26]黄玲,毛炜峄,刘红霞.冬季北极涛动异常与新疆气温变化的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):47-52.
[2]钱步东,范钟秀,彭公炳.北极海冰与赤道东太平洋海温的相互影响及其与El NI?O的联系[J].热带气象学报,1994(4):325-334.
[3]许武成,马劲松,王文.关于ENSO事件及其对中国气候影响研究的综述[J].气象学报,2005,25(2):212-220.
[4]昌都地区汛期降水与ENSO事件的关系[J].高原山地气象研究,2014,34(3):58-61.
[5]吴璐,常军,徐岩岩.华北地区春季降水与ENSO的关系[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):21-25.
[6]许武成,周旭,徐邓耀.近50年川中丘陵区气候变化及与ENSO关系研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28 (1):52-56.
[7]周国良,张建云.厄尔尼诺现象及其对我国水文气候的重大影响[J].水文,2002,22(3):14-17.
[8]赵振国.厄尔尼诺现象对北半球大气环流和中国降水的影响[J].大气科学,1996,20(4):422-428.
[9]张庆云,陶诗言.夏季东亚热带和副热带季风与中国东部汛期降水[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(增刊):16-23.
[10]张成扬,蒋跃林,杨崧,等.5月华南降雨前期海温信号特征分析[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(2):29-35.
[11]郑冬晓,杨晓光.ENSO对全球及中国农业气象灾害和粮食产量影响研究进展[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):90-101.
[12]彭莉莉,戴泽军,罗伯良,等.2013年夏季西太平洋副高异常特征及其对湖南高温干旱的影响[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):195-201.
[13]王亚非,李琰,丁一汇.初夏东亚环流对厄尔尼诺的两种响应过程及其对中国降水的影响[J].气象学报,2012,70(1):39-49.
[14]齐冬梅,李英,李跃清,等.2006年高原夏季风强弱变化及其与西南地区东部夏季降水和气温的关系[J].干旱气象,2015,33(4):555-565.
[15]史久恩,林学椿,周琴芳.厄尔尼诺现象和我国夏季(6-8月)降水、气温的关系[J].气象,1983,9(4):2-5.
[16]金祖辉,陶诗言.ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):663-671.
[17]孔春燕,屠其璞.全球变暖背景下厄尔尼诺对中国东北部汛期降水的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(1):84-88.
[18]宗海峰,陈烈庭,张庆云.ENSO与中国夏季降水年际变化关系的不稳定性特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):184-192.
[19]高辉,王永光.ENSO对中国夏季降水可预测性变化的研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(1):131-137.
[20]袁媛,杨辉,李崇银.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):467-478.
[21]宗海锋,张庆云,彭京备.长江流域梅雨的多尺度特征及其与全球海温的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2005,1(1):102-116.
[22]Zhang R,Sumi A,Kimoto M.A diagnostic study of the impact of EI Niňo on the precipitation in China [J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1999,16(2):229-241.
[23]Wang B,Wu R,Fu X.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate [J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(9):1517-1536.
[24]Zong H,Zhang Q.A New Precipitation Index for the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Drought and Flooding in the Reaches of the Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers and Related Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2011,28(2):375-386.
[25]王红桃,包光,胡亚飞.甘肃省1967-2008年气温和降水时空变化[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):34-42.
[26]黄玲,毛炜峄,刘红霞.冬季北极涛动异常与新疆气温变化的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):47-52.