基于二元决策图的中欧班列运营风险评估
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摘要
将二元决策图(BDD)分析方法应用于故障树分析法,对中欧班列运营风险的评估问题进行研究,构建中欧班列运营风险评估模型。建立风险故障树之后,基于Shannon分解定理构建相应的二元决策图,并通过遍历二元决策图来计算得到各基本事件的Birnbaum测度。中欧班列运营工作人员可根据量化的基本事件重要度,得到对中欧班列运营影响最大的基本事件,从而制定相应的风险控制策略来减少损失,确保中欧班列高效运行。
The paper presents a structured approach for risk evaluation and describes a Binary Decision Diagrams(BDD) based on fault tree tool for assessing risks in operational requirements of CR express to qualitatively irregular risks. After the fault tree was built, the BDD was constructed by Shannon decomposition theorem, and was calculated with BDD traversal. The manager of the CR express could make use of the important values to analyze the importance of events, and find out the most important event to reduce losses and ensure the operational requirements of CR express.
The paper presents a structured approach for risk evaluation and describes a Binary Decision Diagrams(BDD) based on fault tree tool for assessing risks in operational requirements of CR express to qualitatively irregular risks. After the fault tree was built, the BDD was constructed by Shannon decomposition theorem, and was calculated with BDD traversal. The manager of the CR express could make use of the important values to analyze the importance of events, and find out the most important event to reduce losses and ensure the operational requirements of CR express.
引文
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[15]李宁,李春华,张鹏,等.综合风险分类体系建立的基本思路和框架[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(1):27-32.LI Ning,LI Chunhua,ZHANG Peng.Basic thinking and framework for establishment of integrated risk classification system[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(1):27-32.
[2]Rauzy A.New algorithms for fault tree analysis[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1993,40(3):203-211.
[3]Bryant R E.Graph-based algorithms for boolean function manipulation[J].IEEE Trans.Computers,1986,35(8):677-691.
[4]Ranzy A.New algorithms for fault tree analysis[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1993,40:203-211.
[5]钟季龙,郭基联,王卓健,等.装备体系多阶段任务可靠性高效解析算法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2016,38(1):232-238.ZHONG Jilong,GUO Jilian,WANG Zhuojian,et al.Research on phased mission based efficient reliability evaluation algorithm for equipment system of systems[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2016,38(1):232-238.
[6]杨莉琼,李世蓉,贾彬.基于二元决策图的建筑施工安全风险评估[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(7):1889-1897.YANG Liqiong,LI Shirong,JIA Bin.Safety risk assessment for construction project with BDD-based method[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2013,33(7):1889-1897.
[7]ZANG X,SUN H,Trivedi K S.A BDD based algorithm for reliability analysis of phased mission systems[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,1999,66(2):157-170.
[8]张明轩,朱月娇,翟玉杰,等.建筑工程高处坠落事故的故障树分析方法研究[J].煤炭工程,2008(2):112-114.ZHANG Mingxuan,ZHU Yuejiao,ZHAI Yujie,et al.Research on fault tree analysis method for falling accident of building engineering[J].Coal Engineering,2008(2):112-114.
[9]Kloos J,Hussain T,Eschbach R.Risk-based testing of safety-critical embedded systems driven by fault tree analysis[C]//IEEE Fourth International Conference on Software Testing,Verification and Validation Workshops.IEEE Computer Society,2011:26-33.
[10]周雅珍,胡金涛,蔡云龙,等.基于故障树的水厂电源电气设备突发事件风险研究[J].中国给水排水,2012(13):70-74.ZHOU Yazhen,HU Jintao,CAI Yunlong,et al.Risk research on emergency power supply and electrical equipment in water plant based on FTA[J].China Water&Wastewater,2012(13):70-74.
[11]刘敬辉.基于FTA-AHP的铁路安全风险综合评估方法[J].中国铁道科学,2017(2):138-144.LIU Jinghui.Railway comprehensice security risk evaluation method based on FTA-AHP[J].China Railway Science,2017(2):138-144.
[12]Hyun K C,Min S,Choi H,et al.Risk analysis using fault-tree analysis(FTA)and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)applicable to shield TBM tunnels[J].Tunnelling&Underground Space Technology Incorporating Trenchless Technology Research,2015,49(1):121-129.
[13]姚成玉,张荧驿,王旭峰,等.T-S模糊故障树重要度分析方法[J].中国机械工程,2011(11):1261-1268.YAO Chengyu,ZHANG Yingyi,WANG Xufeng,et al.Importance analysis method of fuzzy fault tree based on T-S model[J].China Mechanical Engineering,2011(11):1261-1268.
[14]姚成玉,陈东宁,王斌.基于T-S故障树和贝叶斯网络的模糊可靠性评估方法[J].机械工程学报,2014,50(2):193-201.YAO Chengyu,CHEN Dongning,WANG Bin.Fuzzy reliability assessment method based on T-S fault tree and Bayesian network[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2014,50(2):193-201.
[15]李宁,李春华,张鹏,等.综合风险分类体系建立的基本思路和框架[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(1):27-32.LI Ning,LI Chunhua,ZHANG Peng.Basic thinking and framework for establishment of integrated risk classification system[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(1):27-32.