信号交叉口车流到达分布实证研究
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摘要
为了合理描述信号交叉口车流到达的随机性,以交叉口入口引道车辆到达数实测数据为依据,采用正态分布、对数正态分布、指数分布及5参数Wakeby分布对实测数据进行了拟合,研究不同分布的参数估计方法和拟合优度的检验方法。研究结果表明:与其他分布相比,5参数Wakeby分布对不同方向、不同时段的信控交叉口的到达车流具有较好的拟合效果,拟合接受率为90%。
In order to reasonably describe the randomness of traffic arrivals at signalized intersections,based on the measured data of vehicle arrivals at the entrance crossings of the intersections,the normalized data,normal distribution of logarithms,exponential distribution and Wakeby distribution of 5 parameters were used to simulate the measured data.The methods of parameter estimation with different distributions and the test of goodness of fit were studied.Compared with the other distributions,a better imitative effect on the arrival traffic flow is achieved by using 5-parameter Wakeby for the signalized intersections that have different directions or periods,and the fitting acceptance rate is 90%.
In order to reasonably describe the randomness of traffic arrivals at signalized intersections,based on the measured data of vehicle arrivals at the entrance crossings of the intersections,the normalized data,normal distribution of logarithms,exponential distribution and Wakeby distribution of 5 parameters were used to simulate the measured data.The methods of parameter estimation with different distributions and the test of goodness of fit were studied.Compared with the other distributions,a better imitative effect on the arrival traffic flow is achieved by using 5-parameter Wakeby for the signalized intersections that have different directions or periods,and the fitting acceptance rate is 90%.
引文
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[3]丁建梅,王常虹.基于波动理论的交叉口信号控制参数优化方法[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2008,40(11):1717-1721.(DING Jian-mei,WANG Chang-hong.Optimization of signal control parameter at intersection with wave theory[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2008,40(11):1717-1721.(in Chinese))
[4]于泉,戴帅,任福田.信号交叉口固定配时控制方案可靠度研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2007,33(10):1066-1069.(YU Quan,DAI Shuai,REN Fu-tian.Control sceheme reliability research for signalized intersection[J].Journal of Beijing Polytechnic University,2007,33(10):1066-1069.(in Chinese))
[5]朱翼隽,凌文兴.城市交通随机控制模型分析[J].运筹学杂志,1994,13(2):64-65,73.(ZHU Yi-xie,LIN Wen-xing.Analysis of urban traffic stochastic control[J].Journal of Operational Research,1994,13(2):64-65,73.(in Chinse))
[6]Lo H K.A reliability framework for traffic signal control[J].IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System,2006,7(2):250-260.
[7]吕斌,牛惠民.信号控制交叉口可靠性建模与仿真[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2011,11(6):45-50.(LV Bin,NIU Hui-min.Reliability modeling and simulation of signalized intersections[J].Transportation Systems Engineering and Information,2011,11(6):45-50.(in Chinese))
[8]吕斌,牛惠民.随机条件下单点交叉口信号配时优化[J].交通运输工程学报,2010(6):116-120.(LV Bin,NIU Hui-min.Signal timing optimization at isolated intersections under random condition[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2010(6):116-120.(in Chinese))
[9]吕斌,牛惠民.随机条件下单点交叉口绿灯时间计算方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(2):108-113.(LV Bin,NIU Hui-min.Calculation method of green time signal control at isolated intersection under random condition[J].Journal of Highway Communication Technology,2010,27(2):108-113.(in Chinse))
[10]HoskingJ R M,Wallis J R.Regional frequency analysis:An approach based on L-moments[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2005.
[11]Hosking J R.L-moments:Analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combination of order statistics[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1990,52(1):105-124.
[12]陈元芳,沙志贵,陈剑池,等.具有历史洪水时P-III线性矩法的研究[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2001,29(4):25-29.(CHEN Yuan-fang,SHA Zhigui,CHEN Jian-chi,et al.Study on L-moment estimation method for P-Ⅲdistribution with historical flood[J].Journal of Hohai University:Natural Sciences,2001,29(4):25-29.(in Chinese))