城市化背景下洪涝灾害新特点及其形成机理
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摘要
在快速城市化背景下,洪涝灾害的孕发机制、成灾机理、损失构成与影响范围等特征均发生了显著的变化。对洪涝灾害新变化的研究有助于发现问题的根本,有的放矢地解决问题。快速城市化背景下洪涝灾害的新特点包括:水文特征的变异性、洪涝灾害的连锁性与洪灾损失的突变性。该文分析了快速城市化对水文特征的影响,识别了洪涝灾害链的内部关系和关键环节,绘制了洪涝灾害连锁性关系图,以历史典型灾害数据为论据,论证了洪灾损失突变性特点。基于洪涝灾害系统理论,阐明了水文特征变异性、洪涝灾害连锁性与洪灾损失突变性及其形成机理。揭示城市化背景下洪涝灾害新特点及其形成机理,对于合理把握快速城市化背景下洪涝风险的演变趋势,既有理论指导价值,又有减灾实践意义。
In the context of rapid urbanization, the characteristics of flood and waterlogging disaster such as mechanism, loss composition and affected area have remarkably changed. New features of urban flood and waterlogging disaster are summarized, including hydrological features variability, knock-on effect and flood damage mutability. The impact of urbanization on hydrology and hydraulic characteristics is analyzed, internal relations and key links of urban flood disaster chain are identified, and the chain network of urban flood and waterlogging disaster is drawn. The mutability of flood loss is demonstrated according to the historical flood data. On the basis of natural hazard system theory, the new features of urban flood and their formation mechanism are expounded. The study on the new characteristics and formation mechanism of flood and waterlogging disasters has both theoretical guiding value and practical significance for reasonably grasping the evolution trend of flood and waterlogging risk under the background of rapid urbanization.
In the context of rapid urbanization, the characteristics of flood and waterlogging disaster such as mechanism, loss composition and affected area have remarkably changed. New features of urban flood and waterlogging disaster are summarized, including hydrological features variability, knock-on effect and flood damage mutability. The impact of urbanization on hydrology and hydraulic characteristics is analyzed, internal relations and key links of urban flood disaster chain are identified, and the chain network of urban flood and waterlogging disaster is drawn. The mutability of flood loss is demonstrated according to the historical flood data. On the basis of natural hazard system theory, the new features of urban flood and their formation mechanism are expounded. The study on the new characteristics and formation mechanism of flood and waterlogging disasters has both theoretical guiding value and practical significance for reasonably grasping the evolution trend of flood and waterlogging risk under the background of rapid urbanization.
引文
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[13] 王虹,李昌志,程晓陶. 流域城市化进程中雨洪综合管理量化关系分析[J]. 水利学报,2015,46(3):271-279.
[14] 李智. 基于复杂网络的灾害事件演化与控制模型研究[D]. 长沙: 中南大学, 2010.
[15] 朱伟, 陈长坤, 纪道溪,等. 我国北方城市暴雨灾害演化过程及风险分析[J]. 灾害学, 2011, 26(3):88-91.
[16] 叶丽梅, 周月华, 周悦,等. 暴雨洪涝灾害链实例分析及断链减灾框架构建[J]. 灾害学, 2018(1):65-70.
[2] 李旭. 广州市洪水灾害风险评价[D]. 广州:广州大学, 2008.
[3] 程晓陶. 关于洪水管理基本理念的探讨[J]. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2004, 2(1): 36-43.
[4] 王晓东, 王冠军, 姜付仁. 卡特里娜飓风的影响及启示[J]. 水利发展研究, 2005, 5(12):8-13.
[5] 程晓陶, 李超超. 城市洪涝风险的演变趋向、重要特征与应对方略[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2015,25(3): 6-9.
[6] Konrad C.P. Effects of urban development on floods[R]. U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 076-03. 2003.
[7] Houghton J T, Ding Y, Gringgs D J, et al. Climate Change 2002: The Scientific Basis [M]. England: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[8] Groisman P, Karl T, Easterling D, et al. Change in probability of extreme precipitation: important indicators of climate change[J]. Climatic Change, 1999 (42): 243-283.
[9] 郭生练. 气候变化对洪水频率和洪峰流量的影响[J]. 水科学进展,1995, 6(3):224-230.
[10] 张建云, 章四龙. 水文科学面临的气候变化问题[C]//全国水文技术讨论会, 2004:1-13.
[11] 纪迪, 张慧, 沈渭寿,等. 太湖流域下垫面改变与气候变化的响应关系[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013(1):51-62.
[12] 住房和城乡建设部计划财务与外事司. 2010年中国城市建设统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国计划出版社, 2010.
[13] 王虹,李昌志,程晓陶. 流域城市化进程中雨洪综合管理量化关系分析[J]. 水利学报,2015,46(3):271-279.
[14] 李智. 基于复杂网络的灾害事件演化与控制模型研究[D]. 长沙: 中南大学, 2010.
[15] 朱伟, 陈长坤, 纪道溪,等. 我国北方城市暴雨灾害演化过程及风险分析[J]. 灾害学, 2011, 26(3):88-91.
[16] 叶丽梅, 周月华, 周悦,等. 暴雨洪涝灾害链实例分析及断链减灾框架构建[J]. 灾害学, 2018(1):65-70.