基于BP神经网络的冻土路基变形预测与可靠度分析
|
摘要
目前,基于BP神经网络法进行冻土路基变形预测的可行性和有效性仍少有学者对其进行研究。运用MATLAB编制BP神经网络程序,并应用于青藏铁路预测路基变形的工程实例。在此基础上,又采用COMSOL有限元软件的多场耦合模块分析了同一路基的变形场、水热场。通过对比两种方法,验证了前者的科学性和有效性。进而提出了一种新的可靠度计算方法(INNRS法),这种方法将神经网络法和响应面法有机结合起来,只需一次迭代即可形成较准确的功能函数,使得计算可靠指标的效率大大提高。应用INNRS法,对路基变形的可靠度指标和失效概率进行了评价。
Few researches have been conducted on the feasibility and effectiveness of BP neural network method on the deformation prediction of subgrade in frozen region. In this study,the Qinghai-Tibet railway subgrade was taken as an example,and the hydrothermal field and deformation field of the subgrade were simulated and analyzed using the finite element software COMSOL. The simulation results were then used to verify the BP neural network model programmed by MATLAB. Furthermore,an improved neural network response surface method(INNRS) was proposed by combining the neural network and the response surface method. Numerical simulations disclose that the INNRS method can achieve the performance function with good accuracy only in one iteration. It can be applied to practical assessment on reliability index and probability of failure and subgrade in frozen region.
Few researches have been conducted on the feasibility and effectiveness of BP neural network method on the deformation prediction of subgrade in frozen region. In this study,the Qinghai-Tibet railway subgrade was taken as an example,and the hydrothermal field and deformation field of the subgrade were simulated and analyzed using the finite element software COMSOL. The simulation results were then used to verify the BP neural network model programmed by MATLAB. Furthermore,an improved neural network response surface method(INNRS) was proposed by combining the neural network and the response surface method. Numerical simulations disclose that the INNRS method can achieve the performance function with good accuracy only in one iteration. It can be applied to practical assessment on reliability index and probability of failure and subgrade in frozen region.
引文
[1]祁长青,吴青柏,施斌,等.BP神经网络在冻土路基变形预测中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2007(4):27-30.QI Changqing,WU Qingbo,SHI Bin,et al.Deformation characteristic analysis of representative landslides in Xiangxi River valley in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2007(4):27-30.(in Chinese)
[2]秦焱,朱宏,李旭伟.基于改进型粒子群优化算法的BP网络在股票预测中的应用[J].计算机工程与科学,2008,30(4):66-68,79.QIN Yan,ZHU Hong,LI Xuwei.A BP neural network based on improved Particle swarm optimization and its application in stock forecasting[J].Computer Engineering&Science,2008,30(4):66-68,79.(in Chinese)
[3]祁长青.青藏铁路冻土路基温度场随机有限元分析与变形可靠性研究[D].南京大学,2005.QI Changqing.Research on Stochastic Temperature Field and Deformation Reliability of Qinghai-Tibet Railway Roadbed[D].Nanjing University,2005.(in Chinese)
[4]CHEN Xi,LIU Jiankun,FENG Yuan,et al.A pseudo-coupled numerical approach for stability analysis of frozen soil slopes based on finite element limit analysis method[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2013,5(4):478-87.
[5]王涛.多年冻土区路基随机温度场及变形场分析模型研究[D].中国矿业大学,2015.WANG Tao.Study on Temperature the Analysis Model of Stochastic Fields and Displacement Fields in Permafro st Regions[D].China University of Mining And Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[6]隗新宇.多年冻土区青藏公路楚玛尔河段路基沉降变形研究[D].北京交通大学,2015.WEI Xinyu.Research on Highway at Subgrade Settlement of Qinghai-Tibet Chumaer River in Permafrost Regions[D].Beijing Jiaotong University,2015.(in Chinese)
[7]白青波.附面层参数标定及冻土路基水热稳定数值模拟方法初探[D].北京交通大学,2016.BAI Qingbo.Determination of Boundary Layer Parameters and a Preliminary Research on Hydrothermal Stability of Subgrade in Cold Region[D].Beijing Jiaotong University,2016.(in Chinese)
[8]CHEN Xi,LIU Jiankun,XIE Nan,et al.Probabilistic analysis of embankment slope stability in frozen ground regions based on random finite element method[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2015(4):354-364.
[9]谭晓慧,王建国,刘新荣.改进的响应面法及其在可靠度分析中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005(S2):5874-5879.TAN Xiaohui,WANG Jianguo,LIU Xinrong.Improved response surface method and its application to reliability analysis[J].2005(S2):5874-5879.(in Chinese)
[10]刘小慧.青藏铁路多年冻土路基可靠度研究[D].兰州交通大学,2015.LIU Xiaohui.Study on the Reliability of Permafrost Roadbed in The Qinghai-Tibet Railway[D].Lanzhou Jiaotong University,2015.(in Chinese)
[2]秦焱,朱宏,李旭伟.基于改进型粒子群优化算法的BP网络在股票预测中的应用[J].计算机工程与科学,2008,30(4):66-68,79.QIN Yan,ZHU Hong,LI Xuwei.A BP neural network based on improved Particle swarm optimization and its application in stock forecasting[J].Computer Engineering&Science,2008,30(4):66-68,79.(in Chinese)
[3]祁长青.青藏铁路冻土路基温度场随机有限元分析与变形可靠性研究[D].南京大学,2005.QI Changqing.Research on Stochastic Temperature Field and Deformation Reliability of Qinghai-Tibet Railway Roadbed[D].Nanjing University,2005.(in Chinese)
[4]CHEN Xi,LIU Jiankun,FENG Yuan,et al.A pseudo-coupled numerical approach for stability analysis of frozen soil slopes based on finite element limit analysis method[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2013,5(4):478-87.
[5]王涛.多年冻土区路基随机温度场及变形场分析模型研究[D].中国矿业大学,2015.WANG Tao.Study on Temperature the Analysis Model of Stochastic Fields and Displacement Fields in Permafro st Regions[D].China University of Mining And Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[6]隗新宇.多年冻土区青藏公路楚玛尔河段路基沉降变形研究[D].北京交通大学,2015.WEI Xinyu.Research on Highway at Subgrade Settlement of Qinghai-Tibet Chumaer River in Permafrost Regions[D].Beijing Jiaotong University,2015.(in Chinese)
[7]白青波.附面层参数标定及冻土路基水热稳定数值模拟方法初探[D].北京交通大学,2016.BAI Qingbo.Determination of Boundary Layer Parameters and a Preliminary Research on Hydrothermal Stability of Subgrade in Cold Region[D].Beijing Jiaotong University,2016.(in Chinese)
[8]CHEN Xi,LIU Jiankun,XIE Nan,et al.Probabilistic analysis of embankment slope stability in frozen ground regions based on random finite element method[J].Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,2015(4):354-364.
[9]谭晓慧,王建国,刘新荣.改进的响应面法及其在可靠度分析中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005(S2):5874-5879.TAN Xiaohui,WANG Jianguo,LIU Xinrong.Improved response surface method and its application to reliability analysis[J].2005(S2):5874-5879.(in Chinese)
[10]刘小慧.青藏铁路多年冻土路基可靠度研究[D].兰州交通大学,2015.LIU Xiaohui.Study on the Reliability of Permafrost Roadbed in The Qinghai-Tibet Railway[D].Lanzhou Jiaotong University,2015.(in Chinese)