新时代中国宏观经济结构性风险分析与防范
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摘要
通过对改革开放以来中国宏观经济结构性问题分析,发现中国经济正在累积形成五大结构性风险:社会融资结构问题演化成经济主体财务风险;行业发展结构性失衡催生行业性泡沫风险;银行业超额高利润推升实体经济部门盈利能力恶化风险;行业性泡沫稀释后引发内生性通货膨胀风险;国民财富分配结构性失衡导致需求结构扭曲风险。宏观经济结构性问题和其形成的五大结构性经济风险相互交织、相互关联,需切实增强实体经济企业盈利能力、稳步推进中国金融体系向市场主导型方向发展、大力调整和优化国民财富分配结构、积极促进中国经济创新发展四大综合措施来防范和化解。
Through the analysis of China's macroeconomic structural problems since reform and opening up, it is found that macroeconomic structural problems accumulation has already formed five structural risks: the problem of social financing structure evolves into the financial risk of the economic entity; structural imbalance of industry development spawns the industrial bubble risks; excessive profit of banking sector pushes up the risk of deterioration of the real sector profitability; industrial bubble dilution triggers the risk of endogenous inflation; structural imbalance of national wealth distribution causes the distortion risk of demand structure. China's macroeconomic structural problems and the five major structural macroeconomic risks intertwine and interrelate, it is necessary to take four comprehensive measures to prevent and defuse those risks: enhance the profitability of real economy enterprises; steadily promote the development of China's financial system into market oriented direction; vigorously adjust and optimize the distribution structure of national wealth; actively promote China's economic and innovative development.
Through the analysis of China's macroeconomic structural problems since reform and opening up, it is found that macroeconomic structural problems accumulation has already formed five structural risks: the problem of social financing structure evolves into the financial risk of the economic entity; structural imbalance of industry development spawns the industrial bubble risks; excessive profit of banking sector pushes up the risk of deterioration of the real sector profitability; industrial bubble dilution triggers the risk of endogenous inflation; structural imbalance of national wealth distribution causes the distortion risk of demand structure. China's macroeconomic structural problems and the five major structural macroeconomic risks intertwine and interrelate, it is necessary to take four comprehensive measures to prevent and defuse those risks: enhance the profitability of real economy enterprises; steadily promote the development of China's financial system into market oriented direction; vigorously adjust and optimize the distribution structure of national wealth; actively promote China's economic and innovative development.
引文
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(1)由于受早期国家统计局统计数据的限制,为了具有可比性,这里全社会货币供应量是用金融机构资金来源各项存款加上金融机构资金来源流通中的货币来替代,这与货币和准货币的货币总量统计口径基本一致。
(2)数据来源:国际清算银行(BIS)。
(3)关于房地产业是否属于实体经济多有争论,鉴于房地产业和其他实体行业一样也创造价值和使用价值,文章在此把房地产业归为实体经济。
[2]席涛.经济增长、风险防范和制度建设[J].中国人民大学学报,2008,(6).
[3]樊晓燕,刘儒.后十八大时代中国面临的经济风险及其特征分析[J].经济问题探索,2014,(10).
[4]李永友.财政激励、政府主导与经济风险[J].经济学家,2014,(6).
[5]魏加宁,朱太辉.我国中长期经济风险:一个新的评估框架[J].金融监管研究,2015,(6).
[6]郭娜,祁帆,张宁.我国系统性金融风险指数的度量与监测[J].财经科学,2018,(2).
[7]中国人民银行杠杆率研究课题组.中国经济杠杆率水平评估及潜在风险研究[J].金融监管研究,2014,(5).
[8]陈丽华,郝兆伟.中国物流成本为何过高?[J].中国经济报告,2013,(6).
[9]林善浪.也谈通货膨胀的内生性和外生性[J].江西社会科学,1989,(6).
[10]周鹏,燕浩珍,张思杰.奢侈品消费:一种地位排名的竞赛[J].经济研究,2014,(S1).
[11]王国刚,董裕平.中国金融体系改革的系统构想[J].经济学动态,2015,(3).
[12]吴晓求.中国资本市场的战略目标与战略转型[J].财贸经济,2007,(5).
(1)由于受早期国家统计局统计数据的限制,为了具有可比性,这里全社会货币供应量是用金融机构资金来源各项存款加上金融机构资金来源流通中的货币来替代,这与货币和准货币的货币总量统计口径基本一致。
(2)数据来源:国际清算银行(BIS)。
(3)关于房地产业是否属于实体经济多有争论,鉴于房地产业和其他实体行业一样也创造价值和使用价值,文章在此把房地产业归为实体经济。