中国货币需求函数模型的实证分析——基于货币流动性分类的“高货币化”解释
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摘要
为了解释中国"高货币化"之谜,文章基于新的视角,把地下隐形经济纳入规模变量考察范围,把货币总量划分为M1和M2-M1两部分,建立相应的货币需求理论模型。选取1992-2016年数据,运用计量回归分析方法对模型进行了实证分析。研究发现,与货币M1需求相关的主要因素有两个:一是包含地下隐形经济的国民收入总额;二是中国经济运行的货币化水平,与准货币M2-M1需求相关的主要因素有三个:一是不包含地下隐形经济的国民收入;二是利率;三是人民币兑美元汇率。文章认为,货币M1高发部分被不断扩张和深化的经济运行货币化以及社会事业运行货币化所吸纳,准货币M2-M1高发部分被社会经济主体巨大的投机性需求力量、投资性需求力量和预防性需求力量所吸纳。
Aiming at explaining the riddle of China's"high monetization",this paper,from the new perspective,incorporates the underground invisible economy into the scope of scale variables,classifies the total amount of money into two parts:transaction money M1 and asset storage quasi-money M2-M1,and builds the corresponding monetary demand theory model.Using the data from 1992 to 2016,the paper applies the quantitative regression analysis method to empirically analyze the model.The study discovers that:There are two main factors related to money M1 demand,the one is the gross national income including underground invisible economy,the two is the monetization level of China's economy;There are three main factors related to quasimoney M2-M1 demand,the one is the gross national income excluding underground invisible economy,the two is the interest rate,the three is the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar.Through the further analysis,the paper holds that the excessive money M1 is absorbed by the continuous expanding and deepening of economy operation monetization and social undertakings operation monetization,and the excessive quasi-money M2-M1 is absorbed by the huge speculative demand power,investment demand power and preventive demand power of the social economic subjects.
Aiming at explaining the riddle of China's"high monetization",this paper,from the new perspective,incorporates the underground invisible economy into the scope of scale variables,classifies the total amount of money into two parts:transaction money M1 and asset storage quasi-money M2-M1,and builds the corresponding monetary demand theory model.Using the data from 1992 to 2016,the paper applies the quantitative regression analysis method to empirically analyze the model.The study discovers that:There are two main factors related to money M1 demand,the one is the gross national income including underground invisible economy,the two is the monetization level of China's economy;There are three main factors related to quasimoney M2-M1 demand,the one is the gross national income excluding underground invisible economy,the two is the interest rate,the three is the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar.Through the further analysis,the paper holds that the excessive money M1 is absorbed by the continuous expanding and deepening of economy operation monetization and social undertakings operation monetization,and the excessive quasi-money M2-M1 is absorbed by the huge speculative demand power,investment demand power and preventive demand power of the social economic subjects.
引文
[1]张杰.中国的高货币化之谜[J].经济研究,2006(6):59-69.
[2]徐长生,马克.“中国货币之谜”:基于货币需求视角的解释[J].经济学家,2015(8):5-12.
[3]贾非.中国超额货币识别---基于产业结构调整的视角[J].经济与管理研究,2015(1):50-56.
[4]徐源浩,杜亚斌,张润驰,等.中国超大规模的M2为什么没有引发高通胀---基于内生视角的中国之谜剖析[J].经济学家,2018(4):54-62.
[5]卢江,陈弼文.“中国货币之谜”的国内解读与理论检视---马克思主义政治经济学视角的批判[J].当代经济研究,2018(6):87-94.
[6]SHUHUI DENG,BIN LIU.Modelling and forecasting the money demand in China:Cointegration and nonlinear analysis[J].Annals of Operations Research,1999,87(1):177-189.
[7]LI G.Towards Estimating the Demand for Money in China[J].Economics of Planning,1993,26(3):243-270.
[8]罗磊.中国地下经济规模基本估计和实证分析[J].经济科学,2005(3):29-38.
[9]冯文芳,闫磊,李艳,等.资本监管、货币政策与银行风险承担[J].华东经济管理,2018(2):102-108.
(1)现金比率法,即GCR模型,它由卡根提出,广泛用于计算多国地下规模经济。通常情况下,在地下经济中,现金是唯一支付手段,地上经济则以现金和活期存款作为支付手段,现金比率变化暗示着地下经济增减。
[2]徐长生,马克.“中国货币之谜”:基于货币需求视角的解释[J].经济学家,2015(8):5-12.
[3]贾非.中国超额货币识别---基于产业结构调整的视角[J].经济与管理研究,2015(1):50-56.
[4]徐源浩,杜亚斌,张润驰,等.中国超大规模的M2为什么没有引发高通胀---基于内生视角的中国之谜剖析[J].经济学家,2018(4):54-62.
[5]卢江,陈弼文.“中国货币之谜”的国内解读与理论检视---马克思主义政治经济学视角的批判[J].当代经济研究,2018(6):87-94.
[6]SHUHUI DENG,BIN LIU.Modelling and forecasting the money demand in China:Cointegration and nonlinear analysis[J].Annals of Operations Research,1999,87(1):177-189.
[7]LI G.Towards Estimating the Demand for Money in China[J].Economics of Planning,1993,26(3):243-270.
[8]罗磊.中国地下经济规模基本估计和实证分析[J].经济科学,2005(3):29-38.
[9]冯文芳,闫磊,李艳,等.资本监管、货币政策与银行风险承担[J].华东经济管理,2018(2):102-108.
(1)现金比率法,即GCR模型,它由卡根提出,广泛用于计算多国地下规模经济。通常情况下,在地下经济中,现金是唯一支付手段,地上经济则以现金和活期存款作为支付手段,现金比率变化暗示着地下经济增减。