含腐蚀缺陷悬空管道的考虑多个变量相关性的非概率时变可靠性分析
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摘要
考虑管道工程中的小样本数据难以得到准确的概率分布且采集数据需大量费用,且影响不确定因素相互影响的前提下,在研究其可靠性时提出利用非概率集合理论凸方法为理论基础的椭球模型。考虑结构抗力随时间衰变的客观特性,基于随机过程的时变可靠性分析需要大量的数据,提出了更符合实际情况的随时间抗力的时间累计效应产生的衰变和腐蚀随时间增长向相结合的模型,并结合实际带腐蚀缺陷的悬空管道的极限悬空长度式子,建立了考虑腐蚀缺陷悬空管道的时变极限状态方程,进行二维与三维的不确定变量相关性的非概率可靠性分析。可以作为基于随机过程理论的腐蚀悬空管道的时变可靠性分析理论的有效补充,为埋地油气管道的维护提供理论依据。
Considering that small sample data in pipeline engineering, it is difficult to obtain accurate probability distribution and collect data which requires a large amount of cost. In addition, affecting the mutual influence of uncertain factors, it is proposed to use non-probability set theory convex method as the theoretical basis when studying its reliability. Considering the objective characteristics of structural resistance decay with time and the time-varying reliability analysis based on random process requires a large amount of data, the decay and corrosion of time-dependent growth due to the effect of time are proposed. Combined with the model, the ultimate suspended length formula of the suspended pipeline with corrosion defects, the time-varying limit state equation considering the corrosion-defective suspended pipeline is established. And the non-probabilistic time-varying reliability is analyzed. It can be used as the corrosion vacancy based on random process theory. Above all, it provides a theoretical basis for the maintenance of buried oil and gas pipelines.
Considering that small sample data in pipeline engineering, it is difficult to obtain accurate probability distribution and collect data which requires a large amount of cost. In addition, affecting the mutual influence of uncertain factors, it is proposed to use non-probability set theory convex method as the theoretical basis when studying its reliability. Considering the objective characteristics of structural resistance decay with time and the time-varying reliability analysis based on random process requires a large amount of data, the decay and corrosion of time-dependent growth due to the effect of time are proposed. Combined with the model, the ultimate suspended length formula of the suspended pipeline with corrosion defects, the time-varying limit state equation considering the corrosion-defective suspended pipeline is established. And the non-probabilistic time-varying reliability is analyzed. It can be used as the corrosion vacancy based on random process theory. Above all, it provides a theoretical basis for the maintenance of buried oil and gas pipelines.
引文
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[16]乔心州,仇原鹰,孔宪光.一种基于椭球凸集的结构非概率可靠性模型[J].工程力学,2009,26(11):203-208.
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[23]张鹏,龙会成,李志翔,等.黄土湿陷过程下埋地油气管道力学行为有限元模拟[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(5):48-55.
[24]王同涛,闫相祯,杨秀娟,等.基于弹塑性地基模型的湿陷性黄土地段悬空管道受力分析[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2010,34(4):113-118.
[25]American Society for Mechanical Engineers.ASMEB31G-2009,Manual for determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines[S].New York:ASME,2009.
[26]Teixeira A P,Soares C G,Netto T A,et al.Reliability of pipelines with corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2008,85(4):228-237.
[27]姚继涛,赵国藩,浦聿修.结构抗力的独立增量过程概率模型[C].中国土木工程学会年会,2000.
[28]毕仁贵.考虑相关性的不确定凸集模型与非概率可靠性分析方法[D].长沙:湖南大学,2015.
[29]Ni B Y,Jiang C,Huang Z L.Discussions on non-probabilistic convex modelling for uncertain problems[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2018(59):54-85.
[30]王彬,姜潮.考虑相关性的证据理论结构可靠性分析方法[J].机械科学与技术,2014,33(9):1324-1328.
[31]李桂青.工程结构时变可靠度理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[32]GB 50068-2001,建筑结构可靠度设计统一标准[S].
[33]邱志平.非概率集合理论凸方法及其应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1900.
[34]曾照辉,刘扬,全昌彪,等.一种基于响应面法的动力涡轮轴强度可靠性分析计算方法[J].机械,2017(5):30-32.
[35]陈才方.水毁灾害作用下腐蚀缺陷管道的力学行为分析与可靠性模型研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2017.
[2]张鹏,魏韡,崔立伟,龙晓丹.地表冲沟条件下悬空管道的力学模型与延寿分析[J].天然气工业,2014,34(4):142-148.
[3]帅健,王晓霖,左尚志.地质灾害作用下管道的破坏行为与防护对策[J].焊管,2008,31(5):9-15.
[4]张鹏.油气长输管线的安全性、可靠性和风险技术的研究策略[J].石油工业技术监督,2000,16(9):5-8.
[5]Thompson G M,Golding R D.Pipeline Leak Detection Using Volatile Tracers[J].Astm Special Technical Publication,1993(1161):6.
[6]于东升,宋汉成.油气管道悬空沉降变形失效评估[J].油气储运,2012,31(9):670-673.
[7]Ahammed M,Melchers R E.Reliability estimation of pressurized pipelines subject to localized corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,1996,69(3):267-272.
[8]Caleyo F,González J L,Hallen J.M.A Study on the reliability assessment methodology for pipelines with active corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2002,79(1):77-86.
[9]张鹏,彭杨.考虑随机变量相关性的腐蚀管道失效概率[J].石油学报,2016,37(10):1293-1301.
[10]Rao S S,Berke L.Analysis of Uncertain Structural Systems Using Interval Analysis[J].Aiaa Journal,2012,35(4):727-735.
[11]杨笛,邱志平.区间分析在结构可靠性中的应用研究[C].中国力学学会学术大会'2005论文摘要集(下),2005.
[12]Ben-Haim Y,Elishakoff I.Convex models of uncertainty in applied mechanics[M].Amsterdam:Elsevier Science Publisher,1990.
[13]Elishakoff I,Elisseeff P,Glegg S A L.Nonprobabilistic,convex-theoretic modeling of scatter in material properties[J].Aiaa Journal,2012,32(4):843-849.
[14]张鹏,王艺环,秦国晋.非随机过程的地震激励下埋地压力管道的非概率可靠性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(6):134-141.
[15]邱志平.非概率集合理论凸方法及其应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.
[16]乔心州,仇原鹰,孔宪光.一种基于椭球凸集的结构非概率可靠性模型[J].工程力学,2009,26(11):203-208.
[17]Pantelides C P,Ganzerli S.Design of Trusses under Uncertain Loads Using Convex Models[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,1998,124(124):318-329.
[18]Ganzerli S,Pantelides C.Load and resistance convex models for optimum design.Structural Optimization,1999,17(4):259-268.
[19]李桂青.工程结构时变可靠度理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[20]姚继涛,赵国藩,浦聿修.结构抗力的独立增量过程概率模型[C].中国土木工程学会年会,2000.
[21]王丕东,张建国,阚琳洁,等.基于时变区间和穿阈模型的机械时变可靠性分析方法[J].机械工程学报,2017,53(11):1-9.
[22]张俊芝,苏小卒.基于实测样本值和Bayesian方法的服役结构抗力随机时变模型[J].工业建筑,2005,35(3):30-32.
[23]张鹏,龙会成,李志翔,等.黄土湿陷过程下埋地油气管道力学行为有限元模拟[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(5):48-55.
[24]王同涛,闫相祯,杨秀娟,等.基于弹塑性地基模型的湿陷性黄土地段悬空管道受力分析[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2010,34(4):113-118.
[25]American Society for Mechanical Engineers.ASMEB31G-2009,Manual for determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines[S].New York:ASME,2009.
[26]Teixeira A P,Soares C G,Netto T A,et al.Reliability of pipelines with corrosion defects[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2008,85(4):228-237.
[27]姚继涛,赵国藩,浦聿修.结构抗力的独立增量过程概率模型[C].中国土木工程学会年会,2000.
[28]毕仁贵.考虑相关性的不确定凸集模型与非概率可靠性分析方法[D].长沙:湖南大学,2015.
[29]Ni B Y,Jiang C,Huang Z L.Discussions on non-probabilistic convex modelling for uncertain problems[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2018(59):54-85.
[30]王彬,姜潮.考虑相关性的证据理论结构可靠性分析方法[J].机械科学与技术,2014,33(9):1324-1328.
[31]李桂青.工程结构时变可靠度理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[32]GB 50068-2001,建筑结构可靠度设计统一标准[S].
[33]邱志平.非概率集合理论凸方法及其应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1900.
[34]曾照辉,刘扬,全昌彪,等.一种基于响应面法的动力涡轮轴强度可靠性分析计算方法[J].机械,2017(5):30-32.
[35]陈才方.水毁灾害作用下腐蚀缺陷管道的力学行为分析与可靠性模型研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2017.