基于正态分布假设检验的湖泊营养盐浓度分级评价方法研究
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摘要
目前湖泊营养盐浓度级别评价常采用的平均值法忽视了变量的不确定性.本文据此提出一种基于正态分布总体均值假设检验的级别评价方法,并结合我国地表水环境质量标准(GB3838—2002)对营养盐浓度的分类,提出了简便快捷的图示法.结果发现,该方法能体现营养盐浓度变量的不确定性,融合先验级别假设,将决策风险定量化,可提供较为广阔的决策空间.同时,采用该方法对滇池外海观音山监测断面氨氮浓度的水质级别进行评价,发现先验级别假设、样本容量和决策偏好对评价结果有显著影响;与平均值法的比较发现,假设检验法具有更小的错误概率(例如,样本容量>13时,风险<0.21),评价结果具有更高的可信度,验证了假设检验法的适用性.
The uncertainty of nutrient concentration variable is always ignored while assessing the water quality grade. A grade assessment method based on the hypothesis test for the mean of normal distribution was thereby proposed in this study. We introduced the principles of the hypothesis test. Since the nutrient concentration was divided into six grades in China according to the environmental quality standards for surface water( GB3838—2002),a simple graphic method based on the hypothesis test to assess the concentration grade was developed. It can reflect the decision-making risk quantitatively,and improves broader decision space for decision-maker,with emerging prior hypothesis on the grade of nutrient concentration. Using the hypothesis test method,we assessed the water quality grade of ammonia nitrogen of Guanyinshan monitoring station in Lake Dianchi. The results demonstrated significant impacts of prior hypothesis,sample size and the decision preference of decision-maker on grade assessment results. Comparing with the mean value method,we found that the result of hypothesis method had higher credibility with lower falsely inferring a breach of standard risk and low falsely inferring compliance risk. In general,the hypothesis test method proposed in this article was applicable for nutrient concentration grade assessment.
The uncertainty of nutrient concentration variable is always ignored while assessing the water quality grade. A grade assessment method based on the hypothesis test for the mean of normal distribution was thereby proposed in this study. We introduced the principles of the hypothesis test. Since the nutrient concentration was divided into six grades in China according to the environmental quality standards for surface water( GB3838—2002),a simple graphic method based on the hypothesis test to assess the concentration grade was developed. It can reflect the decision-making risk quantitatively,and improves broader decision space for decision-maker,with emerging prior hypothesis on the grade of nutrient concentration. Using the hypothesis test method,we assessed the water quality grade of ammonia nitrogen of Guanyinshan monitoring station in Lake Dianchi. The results demonstrated significant impacts of prior hypothesis,sample size and the decision preference of decision-maker on grade assessment results. Comparing with the mean value method,we found that the result of hypothesis method had higher credibility with lower falsely inferring a breach of standard risk and low falsely inferring compliance risk. In general,the hypothesis test method proposed in this article was applicable for nutrient concentration grade assessment.
引文
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Brosi B J,Biber E G.2009.Statistical inference,type II error,and decision making under the US endangered species act[J].Frontiers in Ecolog and the Environment,7(9):487-494
Conley D J,Paerl H W,Howarth R W,et al.2009.Controllin eutrophication:nitrogen and phosphorus[J].Science,323(5917):1014-1015
de Fouquet C.2012.Environmental statistics revisited:Is the mean reliable?[J].Environmental Science&Technology,46(4):1964-1970
Demetriades A.2010.Use of measurement uncertainty in a probabilisti scheme to assess compliance of bottled water with drinking water standards[J].Journal of Geochemical Exploration,107:410-422
Dodds W K,Bouska W W,Eitzmann J L,et al.2009.Eutrophication of U.S.freshwaters:analysis of potential economic damages[J].Environmental Science&Technology,43(1):12-19
富天乙,邹志红,王晓静.2014.基于多元统计和水质标识指数的辽阳太子河水质评价研究[J].环境科学学报,34(2):473-480
Gibbons R D.2003.A statistical approach for performing water quality impairment assessments[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,39(4):841-849
龚艳冰,张继国,梁雪.2011.基于全排列多边形综合图示法的水质评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,21(9):26-31
Gronewold A D,Borsuk M E.2009.A software tool for translating deterministic model results into probabilistic assessments of water quality standard compliance[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,24:1257-1262
霍守亮,席北斗.2014.湖泊营养物基准制定的压力-响应模型及其案例研究[M].北京:科学出版社.126-173
Huo S L,Ma C Z,Xi B D,et al.2014.Lake ecoregions and nutrient criteria development in China[J].Ecological Indicators,46:1-10
Ilijevic'K,Obradovic'M,Jevremovic'V,et al.2015.Statistical analysis of the influence of major tributaries to the eco-chemical status of the Danube River[J].Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,187:553
Michael D.2008.ISO 5667-20:Water quality Sampling Part 20:Guidance on the use of sampling data for decision making-Compliance with thresholds and classification systems[S].United Kingdom:ISO
Khalil B,Ouarda T B.2009.Statistical approaches used to assess and redesign surface water-quality-monitoring networks[J].Journal of Environmental Monitoring,11:1915-1929
Lamon III E C,Qian S S.2008.Regional scale stressor-response models in aquatic ecosystems[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,44(3):771-781
梁中耀,张雨宇,钱松,等.2017.基于二项分布检验法的水质达标评价方法研究[J].环境科学学报,37(1):339-346
Long T Y,Christopher W,George A,et al.2014.Evaluation of stormwater and snowmelt inputs,land use and seasonality on nutrient dynamics in the watersheds of Hamilton Harbour,Ontario,Canada[J].Journal of Great Lakes Research,40(4):964-979
Lucie G.2007.Doing battle with the green monster of Taihu Lake[J].Science,317(5842):1166
Malve O,Qian S S.2006.Estimating nutrients and chslorophyll a relationships in Finnish Lakes[J].Environmental Science&Technology,40(24):7847-7853
Mc Bride G B,Ellis J C.2001.Confidence of compliance:a bayesian approach for percentile standards[J].Water Research,35(5):1117-1124
Mc Bride G B,Jim C L,Adkins N C.1993.What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?[J].Environmental Management,17(4):423-432
Merrington G,An Y J,Grist E P M,et al.2014.Water quality guidelines for chemicals:learning lessons to deliver meaningful environmental metrics[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research,21:6-16
Ott W R.1995.Environmental Statistics and Data Analysis[M].Boca Raton:Lewis Publishers
Paerl H W,Gardner W S,Mccarthy M J.2014.Algal blooms:noteworthy nitrogen[J].Science,346(6206):175
Paerl H W,Huisman J.2008.Blooms like it hot[J].Science,320(5872):57-58
Phillips C R,Chmelynski H J,Sensintaffar E L,et al.2012.Reliability of drinking water quality data used for compliance determinations[J]Journal American Water Works Association,104(11):E555-E560
钱松.2011.环境与生态统计-R语言的应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社.55-65;96-99
Qian S S,Borsuk M E,Stow C A.2000.Seasonal and long-term nutrien trend decomposition along a spatial gradient in the Neuse Rive watershed[J].Environmental Science&Technology,34(21):4474-4482
Qian S S,Craig J K,Baustian M M,et al.2009.A Bayesian hierarchica modeling approach for analyzing observational data from marin ecological studies[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin 58:1916-1921
Qian S S,Lavine M.2003.Setting standards for water quality in th everglades[J].Chance,16(3):10-16
Qian S S.2015.The frequency component of water quality criterion compliance assessment should be data driven[J].Environmenta Management,56:24-33
Qin B Q,Zhu G W,Gao G,et al.2010.A drinking water crisis in Lak Taihu,China:Linkage to climatic variability and lake managemen[J].Environmental Management,45:105-112
Richardson C J,King R S,Qian S S,et al.2007.Estimating ecologica thresholds for phosphorus in the everglades[J].Environmenta Science&Technology,41:8084-8091
Saltz D.2011.Statistical inference and decision making in conservation biology[J].Israel Journal of Ecology&Evolution,57(4):309-317
Schelske C L.2009.Eutrophication:focus on phosphorus[J].Science,324(5928):722-722
Shabman L,Smith E.2003.Implications of applying statistically based procedures for water quality assessment[J].Journal of Wate Resources Planning&Management,129(4):330-336
Smith A J,Thomas R L,Nolan J K,et al.2013.Regional nutrien thresholds in wadeable streams of New York State protective o aquatic life[J].Ecological Indicators,29:455-467
Smith E P,Canale R P.2015.An analysis of sampling programs to evaluat compliance with numerical standards:total phosphorus in Platt Lake,MI[J].Lake and Reservoir Management,31:190-201
Smith E P,Ye K Y,Hughes C,et al.2001.Statistical assessment o violations of water quality standards under section 303(d)of th clean water act[J].Environmental Science&Technology,35(3):606-612
Smith E P,Zahran A,Mahmoud M,et al.2003.Evaluation of water qualit using acceptance sampling by variables[J].Environmetrics,14(4):373-386
Smith V H,Schindler D W.2009.Eutrophication science:where do we g from here?[J].Trends in Ecology and Evolution,24(4):201-207
Stephan C E,Mount D I,Hansen D J,et al.1985.Guidelines for derivin numerical water quality criteria for the protection of aquati organisms and their uses[R].No.822R85100.Cincinnati:USEnvironmental Protection Agency,Office of Research and Development
van Belle Gerald.2002.Statistical Rules of Thumb(2nd edition)[M]Hoboken:Wiley
王志良,李淑贞,李立阳,等.2013.水质统计理论及方法[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社
王治臻,傅海江,柏景方,等.2007.环境应用数学[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社.144-152
许秋瑾,朱延忠,郑丙辉,等.2011.我国东部与云贵湖区富营养化控制标准对比研究[J].中国环境科学,31(12):2046-2051
Zhang Y L,Huo S L,Ma C Z,et al.2014.Using stressor-respons models to derive numeric nutrient criteria for lakes in the eastern plain ecoregion,China[J].CLEAN-Soil,Air,Water,42(11):1509-1517
Brosi B J,Biber E G.2009.Statistical inference,type II error,and decision making under the US endangered species act[J].Frontiers in Ecolog and the Environment,7(9):487-494
Conley D J,Paerl H W,Howarth R W,et al.2009.Controllin eutrophication:nitrogen and phosphorus[J].Science,323(5917):1014-1015
de Fouquet C.2012.Environmental statistics revisited:Is the mean reliable?[J].Environmental Science&Technology,46(4):1964-1970
Demetriades A.2010.Use of measurement uncertainty in a probabilisti scheme to assess compliance of bottled water with drinking water standards[J].Journal of Geochemical Exploration,107:410-422
Dodds W K,Bouska W W,Eitzmann J L,et al.2009.Eutrophication of U.S.freshwaters:analysis of potential economic damages[J].Environmental Science&Technology,43(1):12-19
富天乙,邹志红,王晓静.2014.基于多元统计和水质标识指数的辽阳太子河水质评价研究[J].环境科学学报,34(2):473-480
Gibbons R D.2003.A statistical approach for performing water quality impairment assessments[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,39(4):841-849
龚艳冰,张继国,梁雪.2011.基于全排列多边形综合图示法的水质评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,21(9):26-31
Gronewold A D,Borsuk M E.2009.A software tool for translating deterministic model results into probabilistic assessments of water quality standard compliance[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,24:1257-1262
霍守亮,席北斗.2014.湖泊营养物基准制定的压力-响应模型及其案例研究[M].北京:科学出版社.126-173
Huo S L,Ma C Z,Xi B D,et al.2014.Lake ecoregions and nutrient criteria development in China[J].Ecological Indicators,46:1-10
Ilijevic'K,Obradovic'M,Jevremovic'V,et al.2015.Statistical analysis of the influence of major tributaries to the eco-chemical status of the Danube River[J].Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,187:553
Michael D.2008.ISO 5667-20:Water quality Sampling Part 20:Guidance on the use of sampling data for decision making-Compliance with thresholds and classification systems[S].United Kingdom:ISO
Khalil B,Ouarda T B.2009.Statistical approaches used to assess and redesign surface water-quality-monitoring networks[J].Journal of Environmental Monitoring,11:1915-1929
Lamon III E C,Qian S S.2008.Regional scale stressor-response models in aquatic ecosystems[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,44(3):771-781
梁中耀,张雨宇,钱松,等.2017.基于二项分布检验法的水质达标评价方法研究[J].环境科学学报,37(1):339-346
Long T Y,Christopher W,George A,et al.2014.Evaluation of stormwater and snowmelt inputs,land use and seasonality on nutrient dynamics in the watersheds of Hamilton Harbour,Ontario,Canada[J].Journal of Great Lakes Research,40(4):964-979
Lucie G.2007.Doing battle with the green monster of Taihu Lake[J].Science,317(5842):1166
Malve O,Qian S S.2006.Estimating nutrients and chslorophyll a relationships in Finnish Lakes[J].Environmental Science&Technology,40(24):7847-7853
Mc Bride G B,Ellis J C.2001.Confidence of compliance:a bayesian approach for percentile standards[J].Water Research,35(5):1117-1124
Mc Bride G B,Jim C L,Adkins N C.1993.What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?[J].Environmental Management,17(4):423-432
Merrington G,An Y J,Grist E P M,et al.2014.Water quality guidelines for chemicals:learning lessons to deliver meaningful environmental metrics[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research,21:6-16
Ott W R.1995.Environmental Statistics and Data Analysis[M].Boca Raton:Lewis Publishers
Paerl H W,Gardner W S,Mccarthy M J.2014.Algal blooms:noteworthy nitrogen[J].Science,346(6206):175
Paerl H W,Huisman J.2008.Blooms like it hot[J].Science,320(5872):57-58
Phillips C R,Chmelynski H J,Sensintaffar E L,et al.2012.Reliability of drinking water quality data used for compliance determinations[J]Journal American Water Works Association,104(11):E555-E560
钱松.2011.环境与生态统计-R语言的应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社.55-65;96-99
Qian S S,Borsuk M E,Stow C A.2000.Seasonal and long-term nutrien trend decomposition along a spatial gradient in the Neuse Rive watershed[J].Environmental Science&Technology,34(21):4474-4482
Qian S S,Craig J K,Baustian M M,et al.2009.A Bayesian hierarchica modeling approach for analyzing observational data from marin ecological studies[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin 58:1916-1921
Qian S S,Lavine M.2003.Setting standards for water quality in th everglades[J].Chance,16(3):10-16
Qian S S.2015.The frequency component of water quality criterion compliance assessment should be data driven[J].Environmenta Management,56:24-33
Qin B Q,Zhu G W,Gao G,et al.2010.A drinking water crisis in Lak Taihu,China:Linkage to climatic variability and lake managemen[J].Environmental Management,45:105-112
Richardson C J,King R S,Qian S S,et al.2007.Estimating ecologica thresholds for phosphorus in the everglades[J].Environmenta Science&Technology,41:8084-8091
Saltz D.2011.Statistical inference and decision making in conservation biology[J].Israel Journal of Ecology&Evolution,57(4):309-317
Schelske C L.2009.Eutrophication:focus on phosphorus[J].Science,324(5928):722-722
Shabman L,Smith E.2003.Implications of applying statistically based procedures for water quality assessment[J].Journal of Wate Resources Planning&Management,129(4):330-336
Smith A J,Thomas R L,Nolan J K,et al.2013.Regional nutrien thresholds in wadeable streams of New York State protective o aquatic life[J].Ecological Indicators,29:455-467
Smith E P,Canale R P.2015.An analysis of sampling programs to evaluat compliance with numerical standards:total phosphorus in Platt Lake,MI[J].Lake and Reservoir Management,31:190-201
Smith E P,Ye K Y,Hughes C,et al.2001.Statistical assessment o violations of water quality standards under section 303(d)of th clean water act[J].Environmental Science&Technology,35(3):606-612
Smith E P,Zahran A,Mahmoud M,et al.2003.Evaluation of water qualit using acceptance sampling by variables[J].Environmetrics,14(4):373-386
Smith V H,Schindler D W.2009.Eutrophication science:where do we g from here?[J].Trends in Ecology and Evolution,24(4):201-207
Stephan C E,Mount D I,Hansen D J,et al.1985.Guidelines for derivin numerical water quality criteria for the protection of aquati organisms and their uses[R].No.822R85100.Cincinnati:USEnvironmental Protection Agency,Office of Research and Development
van Belle Gerald.2002.Statistical Rules of Thumb(2nd edition)[M]Hoboken:Wiley
王志良,李淑贞,李立阳,等.2013.水质统计理论及方法[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社
王治臻,傅海江,柏景方,等.2007.环境应用数学[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社.144-152
许秋瑾,朱延忠,郑丙辉,等.2011.我国东部与云贵湖区富营养化控制标准对比研究[J].中国环境科学,31(12):2046-2051
Zhang Y L,Huo S L,Ma C Z,et al.2014.Using stressor-respons models to derive numeric nutrient criteria for lakes in the eastern plain ecoregion,China[J].CLEAN-Soil,Air,Water,42(11):1509-1517