考虑二次停车的公交驻站时间分布拟合
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摘要
公交车驻站时间是刻画公交站点服务状况的重要指标,也是影响交通网络运行效率的重要因素。在我国大多数城市,公交车在站点进行服务时常常会有二次停车的情况发生。想要改进站点服务状况,首先需要对公交驻站时间进行准确分析。本文研究有二次停车的公交车驻站时间分布,在实测数据的基础上,分别对第一次服务时间和第二次服务时间进行分布拟合,然后依据概率论的相关理论由两次服务时间的分布计算出公交车总服务时间(驻站时间)的概率分布。进一步由公交驻站时间概率密度函数推导出单辆公交平均在站服务时间的表达式,并且通过分析二次停车发生比例与公交第一次服务时长之间存在的制约关系,求解最佳二次停车比例。
Bus dwell time is an important indicator to describe the service status of a bus station, but also an essential factor which affects traffic network's operation efficiency. In most cities of our country, a bus often parks twice when serving passengers. An accurate analysis of bus dwell time is needed to improve the service level of a bus stop, so the probability of second parking is considered this time when studying the distribution of bus dwell time. Unlike other papers discussing the distribution of bus dwell time, the probability of second parking is considered this time when a bus stops at a bus station. The probability distributions of first-stop service time and second-parking service time are fitted based on field observed data. And then, according to the theory of probability theory, the probability distribution of bus dwell time is calculated. Next, the expectation of bus dwell time is derived from dwell-time's probability density function and then by analyzing the restriction relations between average dwell time and two-parking ratio the optimal two-parking ratio is obtained.
Bus dwell time is an important indicator to describe the service status of a bus station, but also an essential factor which affects traffic network's operation efficiency. In most cities of our country, a bus often parks twice when serving passengers. An accurate analysis of bus dwell time is needed to improve the service level of a bus stop, so the probability of second parking is considered this time when studying the distribution of bus dwell time. Unlike other papers discussing the distribution of bus dwell time, the probability of second parking is considered this time when a bus stops at a bus station. The probability distributions of first-stop service time and second-parking service time are fitted based on field observed data. And then, according to the theory of probability theory, the probability distribution of bus dwell time is calculated. Next, the expectation of bus dwell time is derived from dwell-time's probability density function and then by analyzing the restriction relations between average dwell time and two-parking ratio the optimal two-parking ratio is obtained.
引文
[1]张菁.规划先行:建设公交优先的现代化城市综合交通体系——中国科学院,中国工程院院士周干峙先生访谈录[J].综合运输,2005(5):80-83.
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[6]郭四玲,韦艳芳,时伟,等.公交车停靠时间的统计分析[J].广西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2006,24(2):5-9.
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[8]齐英杰,吴彪,李海霞.基于概率统计模型的公交停靠站车流特征分析[J].城市公共交通,2009(4):26-30.
[9]宋路娟.基本路段路内公交停靠站通行能力模型[D].西安:长安大学,2010.
[10]张旭,李英帅.基于公交停靠特性的站点泊位数确定方法研究[J].公路与汽运,2013(5):58-61.
[11]孙锋.公交站点运行效率计算及车辆停靠组织优化[D].长春:吉林大学,2013.
[2]彭庆艳,杨东援.公共汽车中途站停靠时间模型[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2002,22(1):60-62.
[3]邱杨.提高公交站点停靠能力研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2007.
[4]吴叶,徐大刚.公交停靠站停靠时间特征分析[J].交通与运输:学术版,2007(z2):78-80.
[5]许秀华.公交车在公交停靠站的停靠时间研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2015.
[6]郭四玲,韦艳芳,时伟,等.公交车停靠时间的统计分析[J].广西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2006,24(2):5-9.
[7]葛宏伟.城市公交停靠站点交通影响分析及优化技术研究[D].南京:东南大学,2006.
[8]齐英杰,吴彪,李海霞.基于概率统计模型的公交停靠站车流特征分析[J].城市公共交通,2009(4):26-30.
[9]宋路娟.基本路段路内公交停靠站通行能力模型[D].西安:长安大学,2010.
[10]张旭,李英帅.基于公交停靠特性的站点泊位数确定方法研究[J].公路与汽运,2013(5):58-61.
[11]孙锋.公交站点运行效率计算及车辆停靠组织优化[D].长春:吉林大学,2013.