城镇化、产业结构调整与城乡收入差距的关系——基于云南省1986—2016年数据分析
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摘要
利用内生经济理论中"干中学"模型,构造城乡二元结构下的社会生产函数,对城镇化、产业结构调整与城乡收入差距的短期与长期变化关系进行理论分析,并利用1986—2016年云南省的时间序列数据进行实证性检验。基于分析结果,对改善云南省城乡收入分配不平衡、推动城乡一体化建设以及协调发展工农业提出政策建议。云南省城乡收入差距与城镇化和产业结构调整之间存在先上升后下降的倒"U"型曲线关系:当城镇化率达到28%左右时,城乡收入差距呈现缩小趋势;产业结构比调整到4. 28左右时,城乡收入差距开始缩小。目前云南省城乡收入差距正处于不断缩小的关键时期,城镇化推进与产业结构调整的双向互动对改善云南省城乡收入分配的不平衡起到了积极作用。
This paper uses "learning by doing"model in endogenous economic growth theory to establish the social production function under urban-rural dual structure,which is applied to study the short-and long-term change among urbanization,industrial structure adjustment and urban-rural gain inequality,verified by Yunnan's 1986—2016 data.This paper presents policy suggestions on mitigating urban-rural gain inequality,boosting urban-rural integration and coordinating industry and agriculture. Results show an upside-down U shape between urban-rural gain inequality and urbanization & industrial structure adjustment,rising then falling. Urban-rural gain inequality trends to diminish as urbanization rate reaches 28%,and starts to diminish when industrial structure adjustment reaches 4. 28. Yunnan is currently in a key period in decreasing urban-rural gain inequality,positively driven by urbanization and industrial structure adjustment.
This paper uses "learning by doing"model in endogenous economic growth theory to establish the social production function under urban-rural dual structure,which is applied to study the short-and long-term change among urbanization,industrial structure adjustment and urban-rural gain inequality,verified by Yunnan's 1986—2016 data.This paper presents policy suggestions on mitigating urban-rural gain inequality,boosting urban-rural integration and coordinating industry and agriculture. Results show an upside-down U shape between urban-rural gain inequality and urbanization & industrial structure adjustment,rising then falling. Urban-rural gain inequality trends to diminish as urbanization rate reaches 28%,and starts to diminish when industrial structure adjustment reaches 4. 28. Yunnan is currently in a key period in decreasing urban-rural gain inequality,positively driven by urbanization and industrial structure adjustment.
引文
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[10]魏小芳,赵连荣,李莉.资源型城市产业结构升级与就业的动态关系研究:基于52个地级市资源型城市面板VAR模型[J].资源与产业,2017,19(5):1-8
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[13]高霞.产业结构变动与城乡收入差距关系的协整分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(12):120-128
[14]蔡昉,杨涛.城乡收入差距的政治经济学[J].中国社会科学,2000(4):11-22
[15]林毅夫,刘培林.中国的经济发展战略与地区收入差距[J].经济研究,2003(3):19-25
[16]BARRO R J. Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth[J]. The Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5):103-126
[2]赵俊臣,郭元圆.云南省城乡居民收入差距问题研究[J].云南财经大学学报,2010,26(4):103-114
[3]吴永兴,李国疆.云南省金融发展、对外开放与城乡居民收入差距的研究:基于1985—2009年数据的实证分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2011,27(6):105-111
[4] LEWIS W A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour[J]. Manchester School,1954,22(2):139-191
[5] TODARO M P. A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries[J]. The American Economic Review,1969,59(1):138-148
[6] KUZNETS S. Economic growth and income inequality[J]. The American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28
[7]苏雪串.城市化与城乡收入差距[J].中央财经大学学报,2002(3):42-45
[8]陆铭,陈钊.城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距[J].经济研究,2004(6):50-58
[9]程开明,李金昌.城市偏向、城市化与城乡收入差距的作用机制及动态分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(7):116-125
[10]魏小芳,赵连荣,李莉.资源型城市产业结构升级与就业的动态关系研究:基于52个地级市资源型城市面板VAR模型[J].资源与产业,2017,19(5):1-8
[11]葛建平,崔湛钜.基于减贫的资源型地区产业发展研究:以山西省为例[J].资源与产业,2015,17(3):1-7
[12]毕先萍,简新华.论中国经济结构变动与收入分配差距的关系[J].经济评论,2002(4):59-62
[13]高霞.产业结构变动与城乡收入差距关系的协整分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(12):120-128
[14]蔡昉,杨涛.城乡收入差距的政治经济学[J].中国社会科学,2000(4):11-22
[15]林毅夫,刘培林.中国的经济发展战略与地区收入差距[J].经济研究,2003(3):19-25
[16]BARRO R J. Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth[J]. The Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5):103-126