基于元胞自动机恐慌状态下人群疏散模型研究
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摘要
为了研究恐慌情绪对疏散中人群行为的影响,结合决策理论和情绪感染相关理论,同时考虑恐慌情绪对行人决策的影响和恐慌情绪本身的动力学特性,如情绪感染和衰减等,采用元胞自动机方法,建立基于场域模型的恐慌状态下行人决策修正模型,采用该模型研究恐慌情绪对人群疏散行为的作用规律。研究发现:当处于优势疏散位置的行人,由于恐慌做出非理性决策,不仅降低了自身的疏散效率,而且会占据其他行人的最优疏散路径,因此导致整体疏散效率的下降;随着恐慌情绪阈值增加,同一时刻的恐慌人数减小,疏散时间减小,且存在某一临界值,使疏散时间最短;情绪自衰减速率是影响恐慌情绪的关键因素,且存在决定恐慌情绪的蔓延或者衰减的临界值;行人的恐慌程度随着行人密度的增加而增加,因为人群规模较大时,恐慌情绪的感染次数增加,并在人群中得到反复加强,从而使人均恐慌值增加。
In order to study the influence of panic emotion on the crowd behavior during evacuation,combined with the relevant theories of decision-making and emotional contagion,and considering the influence of panic emotion on the decision of pedestrians and the own dynamic characteristics of panic emotion such as emotional contagion and attenuation,a modified model on the decision-making of pedestrians under the panic state based on the floor-field domain model was established by using the cellular automata method,and the model was applied to study the action laws of panic emotion on the evacuation behavior of crowd. The results showed that when the pedestrians being in advantaged evacuation location made the irrational decisions due to panic,it would not only reduce their own evacuation efficiency,but also occupy the optimal evacuation path of other pedestrians,thus lead to the decrease of overall evacuation efficiency. With the increase of panic emotion threshold,the number of panic people at the same time and the evacuation time decreased,and there was a critical value that made the evacuation time shortest. The self-attenuation rate of emotion was the key factor affecting the panic emotion,and there was a critical value that determined the spread or attenuation of panic emotion. The panic degree of pedestrians increased with the increase of pedestrian density,because when the crowd size was large,the number of panic emotional contagion increased and obtained repeated reinforcement in the crowd,thus made the panic value per person increase.
In order to study the influence of panic emotion on the crowd behavior during evacuation,combined with the relevant theories of decision-making and emotional contagion,and considering the influence of panic emotion on the decision of pedestrians and the own dynamic characteristics of panic emotion such as emotional contagion and attenuation,a modified model on the decision-making of pedestrians under the panic state based on the floor-field domain model was established by using the cellular automata method,and the model was applied to study the action laws of panic emotion on the evacuation behavior of crowd. The results showed that when the pedestrians being in advantaged evacuation location made the irrational decisions due to panic,it would not only reduce their own evacuation efficiency,but also occupy the optimal evacuation path of other pedestrians,thus lead to the decrease of overall evacuation efficiency. With the increase of panic emotion threshold,the number of panic people at the same time and the evacuation time decreased,and there was a critical value that made the evacuation time shortest. The self-attenuation rate of emotion was the key factor affecting the panic emotion,and there was a critical value that determined the spread or attenuation of panic emotion. The panic degree of pedestrians increased with the increase of pedestrian density,because when the crowd size was large,the number of panic emotional contagion increased and obtained repeated reinforcement in the crowd,thus made the panic value per person increase.
引文
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[2]SCHADSCHNEIDER A,KLINGSCH W,KLUEPFEL H,et al.Evacuation dynamics:Empirical results,modeling and applications[J].Springer New York,2011.
[3]杨善林,朱克毓,付超,等.基于元胞自动机的群决策从众行为仿真[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(9):115-124.YANG Shanlin,ZHU Keliu,FU Chao,et al.Simulation of the group decision conformity based on cellular automata model[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice,2009,29(9):115-124.
[4]赵道亮,紧急条件下人员疏散特殊行为的元胞自动机模拟[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2007.
[5]崔鑫,杨小芳.无信号交叉口人行横流与车辆冲突干扰仿真分析[J].森林工程,2014,30(6):129-132.CUI Xin,YANG Xiaofang.Simulation analysis of interactions between pedestrians and vehicles in uncontrolled intersections[J].Forest Engineering,2014,30(6):129-132.
[6]郭良杰,赵云胜.基于元胞自动机模型的人员疏散行为模拟[J].安全与环境工程,2014,21(4):101-106.GUO Liangjie,ZHAO Yunsheng.Simulation on personnel evacuation behavior based on cellular automata model[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2014,21(4):101-106.
[7]BURSTEDDE C,KLAUCK K,SCHADSCHNEIDER A,et al.Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensional cellular automaton[J].Physica A,2001,295(3-4):507-525.
[8]LAM T N.Pedestrian planning and design by John J.Fruin[J].Transportation Science,1972,6(2):214-215.
[9]HELBING D,FARKAS I,VICSEK T.Simulating dynamical features of escape panic[J].Nature,2000,407(6803):487-90.
[10]王春雪,索晓,吕淑然,等.地铁应急疏散恐慌程度模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(2):171-176.WANG Chunxue,SUO Xiao,LYU Shuran,et al.Research on panic degree model of emergency evacuation from subway[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(2):171-176.
[11]王霞,谢智敏,关贤军.恐慌状态下人群疏散的微观仿真研究[C]//International Conference on Future Information Technology and Management Engineering.2010.
[12]NEUMANN R,STRACK F.“Mood contagion”:the automatic transfer of mood between persons.[J].J Pers Soc Psychol,2000,79(2):211-223.
[13]WANG J H,LO S M,SUN J H,et al.Qualitative simulation of the panic spread in large-scale evacuation[J].Simulation,2012,88(12):1465-1474.