兰州至张掖运输通道客流分担率及变化趋势研究
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摘要
科学地分析预测兰州至张掖运输通道内的客流分担率,对于确定项目投资规模、促进各种运输方式协调发展十分重要。基于项目前期研究和旅客出行意愿调查,采用Logit模型及相对效用值代替特征函数值的方法,对兰州至张掖三四线铁路开通运营前后,兰州与张掖间铁路与公路的直达客流分担率分别进行研究。结果表明,对于兰州至张掖城际直达客流而言,未来兰州至张掖三四线的通车运营并不会对通道内既有的直达客流分担率产生较大影响。兰州至张掖三四线的建设将对传统河西走廊地区既有综合运输布局产生深远影响,在此基础上分析通道内客流变化趋势,为运输通道的运营规划提供借鉴。
It is extremely important to confirm the scale of the project investment and promote the coordinated development of various transport modes through scientifically analyzing and predicting passenger flow sharing rate of Lanzhou-Zhangye intercity transport corridor. Based on the previous researches and surveys on passenger travel intention, this paper uses the traditional Logit model and relative utility value instead of the characteristic function value to study the direct passenger flow sharing ratio of railway and road between Lanzhou and Zhangye before and after the operation of Lanzhou-Zhangye third line and fourth line railway. The results show that the traffic operation of the third line and fourth line of Lanzhou-Zhangye railway does not have a far-reaching impact on the existing sharing rate of direct passenger flow in the future. The construction of the third and fourth lines of Lanzhou-Zhangye railway will have a profound impact on comprehensive transport layout in Hexi Corridor region. On this basis, the changing trend of passenger flow in the corridor is analyzed to provide reference for the operation planning of the transport corridor.
It is extremely important to confirm the scale of the project investment and promote the coordinated development of various transport modes through scientifically analyzing and predicting passenger flow sharing rate of Lanzhou-Zhangye intercity transport corridor. Based on the previous researches and surveys on passenger travel intention, this paper uses the traditional Logit model and relative utility value instead of the characteristic function value to study the direct passenger flow sharing ratio of railway and road between Lanzhou and Zhangye before and after the operation of Lanzhou-Zhangye third line and fourth line railway. The results show that the traffic operation of the third line and fourth line of Lanzhou-Zhangye railway does not have a far-reaching impact on the existing sharing rate of direct passenger flow in the future. The construction of the third and fourth lines of Lanzhou-Zhangye railway will have a profound impact on comprehensive transport layout in Hexi Corridor region. On this basis, the changing trend of passenger flow in the corridor is analyzed to provide reference for the operation planning of the transport corridor.
引文
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[3]鲍学英,王起才,董朝阳.兰州至中川城际铁路客运量分担率计算及应用[J].铁道运输与经济,2015,37(3):54-58.BAO Xueying,WANG Qicai,DONG Zhaoyang.Share Rate Calculation of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume and Its Application[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2015,37(3):54-58.
[4]刘雯丽.基于非集计模型的铁路通道内客运专线分担率模型[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2012,10(2):98-101.LIU Wenli.Sharing Model of the Dedicated Passenger Line under Rail Channel based on the Disaggregate Model[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2012,10(2):98-101.
[5]楼小明,李宗平.基于超级网络配流的区域高速铁路客流分担率研究[J].大连交通大学学报,2011,32(5):5-8.LOU Xiaoming,LI Zongping.Study of Passenger Flow Share Rate of Regional High-Speed Railway based on Hyper-Networks Assignment[J].Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University,2011,32(5):5-8.
[6]ADLER N,NASH C,PELS E A J H.High-Speed Rail and Air Transport Competition:Game Engineering as Tool for Cost-benefit Analysis[J].Transportation Research Part B,2010(44):812-833.
[7]中铁第一勘察设计院集团有限公司.新建铁路兰州至张掖三四线可行性研究[R].西安:中铁第一勘察设计院集团有限公司,2017.
[8]孙秀倩.客运通道内旅客运输方式选择研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2010.SUN Xiuqian.Study on The Selection of Passenger Transport Mode in Passenger Corridor[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2010.
[9]刘万明.我国高速铁路客运专线主要技术经济问题研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2002.LIU Wanming.Research on Main Engineering Economics Problems of Chinese High-Speed Passenger-only Guided Transport System[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2002.
[10]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.National Bureau of Statistics of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.