基于情景分析的100%光伏新村可行性研究
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摘要
十八大以来,光伏扶贫和乡村振兴战略成为农村工作的重点。目前,在我国832个贫困县中,有451个县年均等效发电时间超过1 100小时,适合发展光伏精准扶贫。改革开放40年来,农村的能源需求显著增加,能源供给更加多样。国际上对可再生能源城市建设的探索已取得了初步成果,能否将这一构想应用于中国农村?为探索这一问题,本文构建了一个位于山东、人口1 000人、面积100万m2的虚拟光伏新村,借助供给需求模型和情景分析法展示了在乡村这一行政等级上,到2030年和2050年不同情境下能源独立的可行性。为了量化能源独立情况,定义了能源独立系数。研究发现:只有在强可再生能源政策下,即提高能源供给的同时降低能源需求,光伏新村才能实现能源独立,基准情景和温和可再生能源政策情景下,都需要外来能源的补充。中期来看,技术仍是制约光伏发电的最大因素,但是在长期,由于光伏组件转换效率的约束,技术不再是提高能源供给有效途径。
Since the 18 th National Congress, the PV poverty alleviation and rural revitalization strategy has become the focus of rural work. At present, among the 832 poverty-stricken counties in China, 451 counties have an average annual equivalent power generation time of more than 1 100 hours, which is suitable for the development of photovoltaic precise poverty alleviation program. In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, rural energy demand has increased significantly, and energy supply has become more diverse. The international exploration of the construction of renewable energy cities has achieved initial results. Can this concept be applied to China's rural areas? In order to explore this problem, this paper constructs a virtual photovoltaic powered village located in Shandong province with a population of1,000 and an area of 1 million square meters. It shows the feasibility of energy independence under different scenarios by2030 and 2050 with the supply demand model. The in different scenarios in the year. To quantify energy independence,an energy independence factor is defined. The study found that only under the strong renewable energy policy, that is, to improve energy supply while reducing energy demand, photovoltaic powered villages can achieve energy independence,and both the baseline scenario and the mild renewable energy policy scenario require the supplement of external energy.In the medium term, technology is still the biggest factor limiting PV power generation, but in the long run, due to the constraints of PV module conversion efficiency, technology is no longer an effective way to improve energy supply.
Since the 18 th National Congress, the PV poverty alleviation and rural revitalization strategy has become the focus of rural work. At present, among the 832 poverty-stricken counties in China, 451 counties have an average annual equivalent power generation time of more than 1 100 hours, which is suitable for the development of photovoltaic precise poverty alleviation program. In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, rural energy demand has increased significantly, and energy supply has become more diverse. The international exploration of the construction of renewable energy cities has achieved initial results. Can this concept be applied to China's rural areas? In order to explore this problem, this paper constructs a virtual photovoltaic powered village located in Shandong province with a population of1,000 and an area of 1 million square meters. It shows the feasibility of energy independence under different scenarios by2030 and 2050 with the supply demand model. The in different scenarios in the year. To quantify energy independence,an energy independence factor is defined. The study found that only under the strong renewable energy policy, that is, to improve energy supply while reducing energy demand, photovoltaic powered villages can achieve energy independence,and both the baseline scenario and the mild renewable energy policy scenario require the supplement of external energy.In the medium term, technology is still the biggest factor limiting PV power generation, but in the long run, due to the constraints of PV module conversion efficiency, technology is no longer an effective way to improve energy supply.
引文
[1]Parbir S. Grewal,Parwinder S. Grewal. Can Cities become self-reliant in Energy? A Technological Scenario Analysis for Cleveland,Ohio[J].Cities,2013,31.
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[7]Anna Bazan-Krzywoszańska,Maria Mrówczyńska,Marta Skiba,Andrzej覵諭czak. Economic Conditions for the Development of Energy Efficient Civil Engineering Using RES in the Policy of Cohesion of the European Union(2014-2020).Case Study:The Town of Zielona Gora[J]. Energy& Buildings,2016,118.
[8]Stuart Speidel,Thomas Braunl. Leaving the Grid—The Effect of Combining Home Energy Storage with Renewable Energy Generation[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,60.
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[12]Erik Funkhouser,Griselda Blackburn,Clare Magee,Varun Rai. Business Model Innovations for Deploying Distributed Generation:The Emerging Landscape of Community Solar in the U.S.[J].Energy Research& Social Science,2015,10.
[13]肖红波,李军,李宗泰,韩菲,李华.北京农村能源消费现状及影响因素分析:基于北京市1 866个农村住户的调研[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(10):127-137.
[14]丛宏斌,赵立欣,王久臣,姚宗路.中国农村能源生产消费现状与发展需求分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(17):224-231.
[15]田宜水.2015年中国农村能源发展现状与展望[J].中国能源,2016,38(07):25-29.
[16]袁晓玲,张江洋.智能电网下分布式发电对电力市场的影响[J].经济问题探索,2014(08):49-54.
[17]牛刚.分布式发电政策综述[J].电力与能源,2014,35(01):12-14.
[18]曾鸣,许文秀,魏阳,田廓.基于可再生能源分布式发电投资的模糊综合评价研究[J].华东电力,2011,39(02):180-183.
[19]曾鸣,田廓,李娜,史连军,董军.分布式发电经济效益分析及其评估模型[J].电网技术,2010,34(08):129-133.
[20]卢永,甘德强,John N.JIANG.美国智能电网和分布式发电重点方向的调研分析[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(09):12-16.
[21]Danyel Reiche. Renewable Energy Policies in the Gulf countries:A case study of the carbon-neutral “Masdar City”in Abu Dhabi[J]. Energy Policy,2009,38(1).
[22]Md. Alam Hossain Mondal,Linda M. Kamp,Nevelina I.Pachova. Drivers, barriers, and strategies for implementation of renewable energy technologies in rural areas in Bangladesh—An innovation system analysis[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(8).
[23]Tamer Abdel Aziz,Osama Elmassah. Could Renewable Energy Affect the Form of the City? Case Study on the Wind Energy Considerations[J].Energy Procedia,2012,18.
[24]Anna L. Berka,Emily Creamer. Taking stock of the local impacts of community owned renewable energy:A review and research agenda[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017.
[25]Zbigniew W. Paszkowski,Jakub I. Golebiewski. The Renewable Energy City within the City. The Climate Change Oriented Urban Design-Szczecin Green Island[J].Energy Procedia,2017,115.
[26]P. Bikam,D.J. Mulaudzi. Solar energy trial in Folovhodwe South Africa:Lessons for policy and decision-makers[J].Renewable Energy,2005,31(10).
[27]梁志鹏,谢正武.中国分布式发电的机遇和挑战[J].节能与环保,2004(11):11-13.
[28]贾凤伶,刘应宗.低碳经济下可再生能源利用模式研究[J].中国农机化,2012(01):75-79.
[29]娄伟.100%可再生能源城市的建设模式[J].城市问题,2014(02):18-23.
[30]朱婧,刘学敏,初钊鹏.低碳城市能源需求与碳排放情景分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(07):48-55.
[31]佟贺丰,杨阳,王静宜,封颖.中国绿色经济发展展望:基于系统动力学模型的情景分析[J].中国软科学,2015(06):20-34.
[32]柯水发,王亚,陈奕钢,刘爱玉.北京市交通运输业碳排放及减排情景分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(06):81-88.
[33]冯悦怡,张力小.城市节能与碳减排政策情景分析:以北京市为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(03):541-550.
[34]王璐.新时代精准扶贫的实践困境与出路[J].未来与发展,2018,42(12):1-4.
[35]刘蕾,楚春礼,鞠美庭.中国分布式光伏发电政策演变和发展探讨[J].未来与发展,2018,42(06):6-14.
(1)数据来源:《中华人民共和国2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》.
(2)已扣除价格因素.
(3)《中国家庭能源消费研究报告(2015)》.
(4)经纬度查询:http://www.gpsspg.com/.
(5)每日辐射量查询网址:https://eosweb.larc.nasa gov/cgibin/sse/grid.cgiemail=skip@larc.nasa.gov.
[2]Rok Lacko,Bo tjan Drobni,Mihael Sekav nik,Mitja Mori. Hydrogesn Energy Systcem with Renecwables for Isolated Households:The Optimal System Design,Numerical Analysis and Experimental Evaluation[J].Energy& Buildings,2014,80.
[3]Emily Artale,Hillary Dobos. Community Solar Presents Rewards and Risks[J].Natural Gas&Electricity,2015,32(4).
[4]Ursula Eicker,Dirk Monien,?ric Duminil,Romain Nouvel. Energy Performance Assessment in Urban Planning Competitions[J].Applied Energy,2015,155.
[5]Hirushie Karunathilake,Piyaruwan Perera,Rajeev Ruparathna,Kasun Hewage,Rehan Sadiq. Renewable Energy Integration into Community Energy Systems:A Case Study of New urban Residential Development[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016.
[6] John Byrne,Job Taminiau,Kyung Nam Kim,Jeongseok Seo,Joohee Lee. A Solar City Strategy Applied to Six Municipalities:Integrating Market, Finance, and Policy factors for Infrastructure‐scale Photovoltaic Development in Amsterdam,London,Munich,New York,Seoul, and Tokyo[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Energy and Environment,2016,5(1).
[7]Anna Bazan-Krzywoszańska,Maria Mrówczyńska,Marta Skiba,Andrzej覵諭czak. Economic Conditions for the Development of Energy Efficient Civil Engineering Using RES in the Policy of Cohesion of the European Union(2014-2020).Case Study:The Town of Zielona Gora[J]. Energy& Buildings,2016,118.
[8]Stuart Speidel,Thomas Braunl. Leaving the Grid—The Effect of Combining Home Energy Storage with Renewable Energy Generation[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,60.
[9]John Vourdoubas. Description and Assessment of a Small Renewable Energy Community in the Island of Crete,Greece[J].Open Journal of Energy Efficiency,2017,06(03).
[10] Janne Hirvonen, Hassam ur Rehman, Kalyanmoy Deb,Kai Sirén. Neural Network Metamodelling in MultiObjective Optimization of a High Latitude Solar Community[J].Solar Energy,2017,155.
[11]G. De Luca,S. Fabozzi,N. Massarotti,L. Vanoli.A Renewable Energy System for a Nearly Zero Greenhouse City:Case Study of a Small City in Southern Italy[J].Energy,2018,143.
[12]Erik Funkhouser,Griselda Blackburn,Clare Magee,Varun Rai. Business Model Innovations for Deploying Distributed Generation:The Emerging Landscape of Community Solar in the U.S.[J].Energy Research& Social Science,2015,10.
[13]肖红波,李军,李宗泰,韩菲,李华.北京农村能源消费现状及影响因素分析:基于北京市1 866个农村住户的调研[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(10):127-137.
[14]丛宏斌,赵立欣,王久臣,姚宗路.中国农村能源生产消费现状与发展需求分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(17):224-231.
[15]田宜水.2015年中国农村能源发展现状与展望[J].中国能源,2016,38(07):25-29.
[16]袁晓玲,张江洋.智能电网下分布式发电对电力市场的影响[J].经济问题探索,2014(08):49-54.
[17]牛刚.分布式发电政策综述[J].电力与能源,2014,35(01):12-14.
[18]曾鸣,许文秀,魏阳,田廓.基于可再生能源分布式发电投资的模糊综合评价研究[J].华东电力,2011,39(02):180-183.
[19]曾鸣,田廓,李娜,史连军,董军.分布式发电经济效益分析及其评估模型[J].电网技术,2010,34(08):129-133.
[20]卢永,甘德强,John N.JIANG.美国智能电网和分布式发电重点方向的调研分析[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(09):12-16.
[21]Danyel Reiche. Renewable Energy Policies in the Gulf countries:A case study of the carbon-neutral “Masdar City”in Abu Dhabi[J]. Energy Policy,2009,38(1).
[22]Md. Alam Hossain Mondal,Linda M. Kamp,Nevelina I.Pachova. Drivers, barriers, and strategies for implementation of renewable energy technologies in rural areas in Bangladesh—An innovation system analysis[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(8).
[23]Tamer Abdel Aziz,Osama Elmassah. Could Renewable Energy Affect the Form of the City? Case Study on the Wind Energy Considerations[J].Energy Procedia,2012,18.
[24]Anna L. Berka,Emily Creamer. Taking stock of the local impacts of community owned renewable energy:A review and research agenda[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017.
[25]Zbigniew W. Paszkowski,Jakub I. Golebiewski. The Renewable Energy City within the City. The Climate Change Oriented Urban Design-Szczecin Green Island[J].Energy Procedia,2017,115.
[26]P. Bikam,D.J. Mulaudzi. Solar energy trial in Folovhodwe South Africa:Lessons for policy and decision-makers[J].Renewable Energy,2005,31(10).
[27]梁志鹏,谢正武.中国分布式发电的机遇和挑战[J].节能与环保,2004(11):11-13.
[28]贾凤伶,刘应宗.低碳经济下可再生能源利用模式研究[J].中国农机化,2012(01):75-79.
[29]娄伟.100%可再生能源城市的建设模式[J].城市问题,2014(02):18-23.
[30]朱婧,刘学敏,初钊鹏.低碳城市能源需求与碳排放情景分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(07):48-55.
[31]佟贺丰,杨阳,王静宜,封颖.中国绿色经济发展展望:基于系统动力学模型的情景分析[J].中国软科学,2015(06):20-34.
[32]柯水发,王亚,陈奕钢,刘爱玉.北京市交通运输业碳排放及减排情景分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(06):81-88.
[33]冯悦怡,张力小.城市节能与碳减排政策情景分析:以北京市为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(03):541-550.
[34]王璐.新时代精准扶贫的实践困境与出路[J].未来与发展,2018,42(12):1-4.
[35]刘蕾,楚春礼,鞠美庭.中国分布式光伏发电政策演变和发展探讨[J].未来与发展,2018,42(06):6-14.
(1)数据来源:《中华人民共和国2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》.
(2)已扣除价格因素.
(3)《中国家庭能源消费研究报告(2015)》.
(4)经纬度查询:http://www.gpsspg.com/.
(5)每日辐射量查询网址:https://eosweb.larc.nasa gov/cgibin/sse/grid.cgiemail=skip@larc.nasa.gov.